Baseball Picks 6/21

Back for some more baseball picks! Yesterday I went 5-1, winning every bet but the Reds over the Yankees.  However, I posted my prediction before they scratched Johnny Cueto from his start.  Regardless I probably still would have taken the Reds.  Today interleague play continues and there happens to be some strong pitching matchups today which should prove for difficult bets. 

Max Scherzer of the Detroit Tigers faces off against Chad Billingsley of the Dodgers in what should be a pitchers duel, while Roy Halladay pitches against the surprise upstart Kyle McClellan, who has six wins for the Cardinals this year.  Up and coming Jeremy Hellickson goes against Zach Grienke, who has impressed with six wins since the beginning of May for the Brewers. 



Greinke has a knack for striking out Rays



Tuesday, June 21st 2011

8:10 pm Tampa Bay Rays vs. Milwaukee Brewers

Moneyline: Rays +125, Brewers -135

Runline: 7.5

Greinke has experience pitching against the Rays as a former member of the Kansas City Royals, and traditionally has crushed the Rays.  Current Rays hit .202 against Greinke, with 7 BB and 35 K in 114 AB.  Although Greinke has struggled at times this year, he currently has a 5.23 ERA, this outing should be a routine one for him and the surging Brew Crew.  Expect a low-scoring game in favor of the men from Milwaukee, as Hellickson will pitch well enough to keep it close.

Prediction: Brewers -135, Runline < 7.5

8:15 pm Philadelphia Phillies vs St. Louis Cardinals
Moneyline: Phillies -175, Cardinals +160
Runline: 7.5

This game looks pretty predictable just by looking at the starting pitching matchup.  Halladay has a 2.56 ERA this year compared to 3.96 by McClellan.  Plus, the Cardinals biggest offensive threat, Albert Pujols, is out for 4-6 weeks with a wrist injury.  St. Louis is a career 5-22 against Halladay, with nothing more than a  single and only two walks.  However, the Phillies are only 4-29 against McClellan, albeit with two home runs.  McClellan has not been nearly as sharp lately, so as tempting as it is to take the Cardinals in this one, it's hard to bet against the Phillies.

Prediction: Phillies -175, Runline < 7.5

Chad Billingsley has traditionally dominated the Tigers, and
looks to continue that Tuesday

10:10 pm Detroit Tigers vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Moneyline: Tigers -115, Dodgers +105
Runline: 7

Max Scherzer returns to face a Dodgers squad he pitched against frequently as a member of the Arizona Diamondbacks, and the Tigers look for revenge after getting shutout by Clayton Kershaw last night.  The Dodgers have hit Scherzer adequately, with a .255 AVG and a .328 OBP.  However, four of their fourteen hits have came from Tony Gwynn Jr, who may not be in the lineup.  Similarly, the Tigers bat only .129 with a .222 OBP against Billingsley, and Miguel Cabrera is 0-12 lifetime against him.  Expect a pitchers duel with similar results to last night's match up.  However, if Billingsley does not get through 7 innings the Dodgers bullpen is notoriously weak.

Prediction: Dodgers +105, Runline < 7

Yesterday = 5-1
YTD = 5-1

Baseball Picks 6/20

Hey everyone it's been a while!  Took a break for a bit to finish up school and my job search.  Now I'm back, but with a new focus on the blog for the next few months: baseball.  Ever since the Bruins won the Stanley Cup last Wednesday night, I've been bored out my mind and moping around knowing that football season does not start for at least two more months (if not more...).  Therefore, I shift my attention to the MLB.  For the near future I plan on looking at baseball betting by looking at advanced statistical measures, specifically BVP to predict outcomes such as runs scored or winning teams.  I will look at three games each day and try to predict the winner and the runline.

Monday, June 20th 2011
7:05 pm Baltimore Orioles vs Pittsburgh Pirates
Moneyline: Baltimore +102, Pittsburgh -112
Runline: 8

Considering the lack of pitching vs batting matchups in this one, it makes it pretty difficult to predict.  Jake Arrieta is pitching against Charlie Morton in this one, and only one Pittsburgh batter has ever hit against Arrieta.  Lyle Overbay is 0-3 in his career against Arrieta with no BB and no K.  However, Baltimore batters are a career 10-24 against Morton with 2 BB and 6 K.  This amounts to a .417 average and a .481 slugging percentage.  Although Morton has changed his delivery to fool batters, the Orioles average is pretty overwhelming.

Morton ERA = 3.21       Arrieta ERA = 4.45

Prediction: Baltimore +102, Runline > 8

7:10 pm San Diego Padres vs. Boston Red Sox
Moneyline: Padres +175, Red Sox -195
Runline: 10.5

Another interleague game in which each pitcher has a lack of experience against the other team.  Wade LeBlanc sports a 4.49 ERA and a startling 1.66 WHIP this year, alarmingly poor numbers.  Andrew Miller has yet to pitch in the majors this year, so don't expect much from him.  LeBlanc has never pitched against the Red Sox, while Padres have hit Andrew Miller relatively hard, going 10-28 for a .357 average with 3 BB and 8 K.  Expect both pitchers to leave early and Boston to win a relatively high scoring game.

Prediction: Boston -195, Runline > 10.5

Cueto has been very solid for a shaky Reds
pitching staff this year

7:10 pm New York Yankees vs. Cincinnati Reds
Moneyline: Yankees +110, Reds -120
Runline: 9

The Yankees throw Ivan Nova tonight against a potent Reds offense, hence the moneyline toward the Reds.  Johnny Cueto has pitched marvelous this year, sporting a 1.68 ERA and a 1.01 WHIP.  Against the Yankees in his career, Cueto has been pretty successful, with Yankees hitters batting .214 against him with 0 BB and 3 K.  Nova has only pitched against one Reds player, reserve Fred Lewis who is 1-3 against him.  Nova has been too volatile this year for the Yankees to pull this one out, and expect Cueto to continue pitching well.

Prediction: Reds -120, Runline < 9

NHL Teams That Need to Relocate

Take a look at the NHL playoffs right now, four teams remain: Boston Bruins, Tampa Bay Lightning, Vancouver Canucks, and the San Jose Sharks.  Boston is one of the Original Six franchises and the Canucks have been around since 1971, while the Lightning and the Sharks have only been playing hockey since 1991 and 1992, respectively.  Although the Lightning and Sharks have been pretty successful franchises since their inception, with the Lightning winning the Stanley Cup in 2006, an average hockey fan would have limited interest watching these teams play in the Stanley Cup finals.  Both South Florida and the San Francisco Bay area aren't exactly hotbeds for hockey, even though neither of these teams has a terrible fanbase. The Sharks and Lightning ranked 17th and 18th, respectively, in attendance this season.  Not too shabby for teams in areas so foreign to hockey, eh?

Although these teams are not the problem, relocation is a necessity for some other teams.  Take for example, the Phoenix Coyotes.  The Coyotes averaged only 12,200 fans per game, filling their arena to only 71% of tis capacity.  In 2009 there were talks regarding the sale of the Coyotes to Hamilton, Ontario.  However, relocating a team to Hamilton could be detrimental to the Buffalo Sabres, who are already in a small market and close to Hamilton.  Jim Belsillie insists that the Coyotes be moved to Hamilton, and even though it would infringe on the territory of the Sabres and maybe even the Maple Leafs, Southern Ontario is populated enough to support another NHL Franchise.

In addition to the Coyotes, the Atlanta Thrashers have been struggling with their fan base since their inception in 1999.  The Thrashers have only made the playoffs once in their existence, and finished the 2010-2011 season with an average attendance of 13,500 fans per game, only filling their stadium to 72.6% capacity.  They are currently owned by a group that also owns the Atlanta Hawks, and this group is looking to unload the struggling franchise.  Where would be a great destination for the Thrashers?  Maybe Chicago, as they have a large enough market for another hockey team.  However, there is speculation that the Thrashers may move back to Winnipeg and reincarnate the Jets!  One may ask, why Winnipeg? Do people even live in Manitoba?  As of the 2006 Census there were over 700,000 people in the Winnepeg Capital Region, and the MTS center houses over 15,000 fans.  Although the arena size is not ideal, a much stronger fanbase is.

Finally, the Florida Panthers have failed to establish much of a presence in the Orange State since 1993, their first year in the league.  The Panthers made the Stanley Cup Finals in 1996, but lost to the Colorado Avalanche.  Since then the Panthers have been futile at winning games, and lack a strong fanbase.  Even though they get almost 16,000 fans per game, they currently sport a 81.5% capacity rate.  Clearly hockey is not catching on in this part of Florida and the Panthers should arguably be moving somewhere else? Where to?  Kansas City seems like a potential option, as the Blues have a strong fan base in St. Louis and the area could use another team.  However, I see another potential, more satisfying option: bring back the Hartford Whalers.  Not only did the Whalers have outstanding jerseys, but also the Eastern Seaboard can't get enough of hockey.  If the Panthers could find a strong business group in Connecticut to purchase and put a strong effort into promoting the Whalers, they could be successful in Hartford again.

     I've been taking my finals recently so the blog has not been very active, expect more recent updates once I finish my undergraduate education at St. Olaf College!

What's up with the Lakers?

Kobe needs to recapture his aggresive
style of play to give the Lakers
any kind of chance.

If you remember from my blog last week titled "Western Conference Semifinals Preview" I predicted the Lakers to beat the Dallas Mavericks in five games.  I expected the Laker's size to be far too much for the Mavericks to handle, and for Kobe to go off against the Mavericks usually porous defense.  Thus far, both of these predictions haven't came to fruitition, although in Kobe's defense he has been shooting the ball well.  In spite of some desperation attempts at the end of the game yesterday, Kobe was shooting 8-12 from the field up until the Lakers fell behind with three minutes to play.  However, Kobe only shot ONE free throw all game, ONE FREE THROW! During the regular season, Kobe averaged 7.1 free throw attempts per game, and he has averaged 6.3 per game throughout the playoffs.  Kobe needs to be more aggresive going to the hoop, as he has only attempted eleven free throws the entire series. Part of the reason why the Mavericks were so successful yesterday was because they shot 29 free throws. Even if you take out the free throws the Mavericks made at the end, they still attempted 23 free throws.  The Lakers will need to be more aggresive if they want to win another game in this series, let alone attempt to comeback from such a deficit.

Another advantage the Mavericks have utilized in this series is three-point shooting.  I pointed at this as a potential weakness for the Lakers, and it has definitely been exploited.  The Mavericks shot 12-29 from three in Game 3, 8-25 in Game 2, and 9-20 in Game 1, shooting a combined 29 for 74 for 39.2%.  Conversely, the Lakers are shooting 10 for 52 for 19.2%.  The Lakers lack a prolific three point shooter that most contenders have right now.  Stojakovic and Terry are proficient from beyond the arc for the Mavericks, along with Ray Allen for the Celtics, Kyle Korver for the Bulls, James Jones and Mike Miller for the Heat, and Kevin Durant for the Thunder.  Steve Blake, Shannon, Brown, and Ron Artest are not up to par from beyond the arc, and the Lakers clearly miss the shooting of players such as Sasha Vujacic from a few seasons ago.  Regardless, shooting 19% from behind the arc is awful.

Barea has been quite the sparkplug off the
bench for the Mavericks!

Finally, point guard play has really hurt the Lakers and has been a boon to the Mavericks.  Jose Juan Barea has provided speed, shooting, and energy off the bench, burning the Lakers defense for some easy layups.  In addition, his emergence allows the Mavericks to rest Jason Kidd.  Derek Fisher has been atrocious for the Lakers.  He shot 3-6 from the field in Game 1, 2-7 in Game 2, and 3-8 in Game 3.  Considering most his shots are hardly contested, he should be shooting a higher percentage.  In addition, his decision-making was questionable at the end of Game 3.  Fisher fouled Jason Terry going for a steal with eight seconds left on the shot clock in the final minute of the game.  Why one would foul such a good free throw shooter with the shot clock winding down makes little sense to me...  On the next possesion, Fisher tried throwing an in-bounds pass to Lamar Odom that sailed over his head.  The Lakers should have designed a play in which Fisher could ahve inbounded to Kobe, but regardless a veteran like him should not be hurting his team's chances like this late in the game.  The Lakers veteran team seems to be falling apart, and without strong three point shooting and agressive play from its superstar, is most likely heading home early this year.

Eastern Conference Semifinals Preview

The Eastern Conference Semifinals are finally upon us, and the top three contenders are still in the mix with an outsider added in.  The Bulls and Heat both took care of business in five tough games against their respective opponents, the Pacers and the Sixers.  Both teams looked relatively sluggish throughout but their superior talent helped them prevail.  Boston dispatched of the New York Knicks in four quick games, an outcome unexpected by most, as the Celtics ended the regular season with poor play down the stretch.  The odd man out in these Eastern Conference Semifinals is the Atlanta Hawks.  Atlanta used strong defense and a barrage of different weapons on offense to eliminate Dwight Howard and company in six intensely contested games.  Can the Hawks beat the Bulls?  Can LeBron and D-Wade finally defeat their arch-nemesis the Celtics? Find out below with my Eastern Conference Semifinals Preview

Atlanta Hawks vs Chicago Bulls 

Derrick Rose and the Chicago Bulls
should prove too strong for the
Atlanta Hawks

While Atlanta surprised a cold shooting Magic team, the Bulls had some trouble dealing with the Indiana Pacers, winning three of their four games by six points or less.  Throughout the regular season, the Bulls took two of three from Atlanta, winning 114-81 at Atlanta in their most recent meeting.  Like in the Grizzlies-Nuggets series, Point Guard play should be the deciding factor.  Derrick Rose has developed into one of the top point guards in the league, along side Chris Paul and Deron Williams in my book, as he has increased his range and improved his shooting in his third year.  Against the Hawks this year Rose averaged 25.3 ppg and 9.0 apg in only 33 mpg, meaning that he was extremely productive and difficult to defend when he was on the court.  Carlos Boozer and Joakim Noah are more effective in the paint than Josh Smith and Al Horford, and although Joe Johnson and Jamal Crawford are sold scorers from the wing, Luol Deng and Kyle Korver can shoot outside just as well.  The only advantage I see for the Hawks is their depth and the scoring of Joe Johnson, but besides that this is Chicago's series to lose.  If Chicago plays with more confidence then they did against the Pacers expect this series to be over pretty quickly.

Make it: Chicago in 5

Boston Celtics vs Miami Heat

Chris Bosh needs to become more of
a factor on offense for the Heat
to advance

Clearly this is the most-hyped series of the Conference Semifinals, and deservedly so.  Of the Eastern Conference teams remaining the Celtics are the most experienced and battle tested, while the Heat are the most talented and flashy.  The Celtics took three of four games from the Heat this season, and despite some late season struggles, dispatched the Knicks in the first round and look as fresh and sharp as ever.  Meanwhile the Heat lumbered through their series against the 76ers, starting most their games relatively sluggishly before finishing strong in the fourth quarter.  This does not bode well for the Celtics, as they are generally capable of breaking down a bit during the fourth quarter.  However, past performances aside, I think both these teams will be playing at their absolute best throughout this series.  LeBron holds a grudge against the Celtics for taking out his old Cavs teams, but it hasn't really shown thus far this season, as he 'only' averaged 28.8 ppg, 6.5 rpg, and 6.5 apg against the Celtics this year.  These numbers are pretty standard for LeBron but you would expect him to perform better against an opponent with which he has a chip on his shoulder.  His fg% is only .488 against the Celtics as opposed to .510% for the season, so clearly the Celtics force him into slightly worse shots.  If the Heat want to beat the Celtics, Chris Bosh needs to step it up.  The Celtics traded Kendrick Perkins this winter for Jeff Green, giving them one less body down in the paint to guard players like Bosh, or Boozer/Gasol/Bynum in future series.  If Bosh can take advantage of an aging frontline inculding Kevin Garnett, Jermaine O'Neal, Glen Davis, and Shaq, he should be able to push the Heat over the top.  Bosh shot .550% from the field against Boston during the regular season, and if he can get more touches he might be able to make the difference between advancing and going home early.

He may look like an alien,
but he sure knows how
to pass the ball!

Regarding the Celtics play against Miami, Kevin Garnett shoots .543% against the Heat, while Ray Allen averages four three pointers made per game at a .571% clip.  Paul Pierce shoots .489%, but he always seems to come through in the playoffs when needed.  Judging by how the Celtics played the Heat during the regular season, and the way they swept the Knicks, one would assume Boston would continue their winning ways against the Heat.  However, Boston has always been a poor road playoff team. Many have been trying to pinpoint Boston's demise over the past few years, and it may occur here as they are getting older.  Yet, I think the Celtics can have another run at it.  Rajon Rondo is the difference maker for the Celtics, as his distribution keeps getting better.  Although his shooting may be a liability, he makes an enormous difference and can outplay either Mike Bibby or Mario Chalmers by a longshot.  Celtics win this one as playoff experience trumps starpower and talent.

Make it: Celtics in 6

Western Conference Semifinals Preview

Following Memphis's 99-91 victory over the San Antonio Spurs last night, the Western Conference Semifinals are set.  #8 seeded Memphis Grizzlies vs #4 Oklahoma City Thunder, and the #2 Los Angeles Lakers vs the #3 Dallas Mavericks.  Everyone expected the Lakers and Mavericks to be here, but the Thunder surprisingly crushed a hot Nuggets team in five games while the Grizzlies defeated an elderly and fading Spurs squad in six.  At this point in time it seems like anybody's game regarding who will make the NBA finals, as the Lakers have yet to exude their dominance from the past few seasons.

Oklahoma City vs. Memphis

Z-Bo carried the Grizzlies to a
surprising upset over the top
seeded Spurs

The Thunder defeated Denver in convincing fashion 4-1, with Kevin Durant taking over games at will.  He averaged 32.4 ppg against the Nuggets and got to the free throw line an average of 11.4 times per game.  More importantly, Durant averaged 30.5 ppg and 8.3 rpg against the Grizzlies this year, yet the Thunder were only 1-3 against them during the regular season.  Will this trend continue? I doubt it. Memphis was 2-1 against the Thunder with Rudy Gay, and without him they lack a threat at the 3 on offense that can also force Durant into playing stronger on defense and tiring him.  Tony Allen and Shane Battier are adequate at defending Durant, but neither is capable of shutting him down.  Durant will get his points, although he may not shoot as well as he did in the Denver series.  If the Grizzlies want to win this series, they will need a strong offensive performance from Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol.  These two players should make for some intriguing matchups with Kendrick Perkins and Serge Ibaka, and Nick Collison and Nazr Mohammed are capable fill-ins if the starters run into foul trouble.  At this point in time, stopping Zach Randolph seems pretty difficult.  He looked real impressive in the Spurs series and should continue to play well against OKC, as he averages 26.5 ppg, 13.0 rpg, and shot .580% from the field against OKC this year.  Considering Randolph's success seems like a given, Marc Gasol will have to perform well.  The matchup, that in my opinion, sways the series in OKC's favor, is Russell Westbrook against Mike Conley Jr.  Westbrook is an elite point guard and has put up 24.5 ppg and 9.0 apg against the Grizzlies this season.  Conley has been much less effective, to the tune of 13.0 ppg, 6.5 apg, and a dismal field goal percentage of .370%.  I just don't think Conley is the type of player that can carry a team deep into the playoffs, as point guard play and experience is of utmost importance in the playoffs.

Make it: Thunder in 6

L.A. Lakers vs. Dallas Mavericks

Kobe looks to lead the Lakers
past the Mavs on their way to
a third straight championship

The Lakers looked pretty shaky at times against the New Orleans Hornets, but were able to right the ship and defeated the Hornets handily in Games 5 and 6 to put their fears to rest.  The Mavericks slipped up a bit against the Trail Blazers, letting a double digit lead evaporate in the fourth quarter to lose Game 4, but were able to close out their series at Portland with a dominating performance by Dirk Nowitzki.  The Lakers and Mavericks played three times this season, with the Lakers winning two of the three, and most notably the third game at home by 28 points.  Has this Lakers team played like two-time champions this season? No.  Can they repeat? Possibly.  Will they win this series? Definitely.  Andrew Bynum has returned to form and played spectacular down the stretch to end the regular season.  Although his health is a bit iffy at this point I still think he can have a profound impact in this series.  The Mavericks don't have the size to compete with the Lakers down low, as they can't play Dirk on either Gasol or Bynum.  However, what the Mavericks do have in their favor is superior point guard play and shooting from the outside.  Jason Kidd provides strong point guard play compared to Derek Fisher, while the outside shooting of Jason Terry and Peja Stojakovic trumps that of Kobe, Ron Artest, and Matt Barnes and Shannon Brown if they're in the game.  As great as the Mavericks can shoot at times, they can't compete with the Lakers down low and don't have any strong defenders to guard Kobe.

Make it: Lakers in 5

Kobe Bryant's Homophobic Slur: Too strong a punishment?

This past Tuesday Kobe Bryant lashed out at a referee following a technical foul.  Kobe alarming chose to use the phrase "fucking faggot" while directing his speech to the referee.  Following this angry incident, the NBA deliberated and decided to fine Kobe $100,000 for his remark. Clearly Kobe deserves to be fined for using a curse word to describe a minority orientation, but is it worth $100,000?



Clearly Kobe was yelling something
totally different here...

 The word 'faggot' or 'fag' has, unfortunately, become a part of some people's slang.  One may refer to someone as a 'fag' just because they are unathletic, dress in a peculiar way, or enjoying assuming typical domestic tasks such as cooking or cleaning, etc.  Clearly none of those determine sexual orientation, yet those words, to the chagrin of many, have been relatively mainstreamed into popular culture.  I can understand to a point that one can call his good friends a 'fag' or 'faggot' in a joking manner, as the friend clearly has no malintentions, but why joke around when it could be offensive and could have repercussions if used in a more public place? 

The backlash against Kobe's poor word choice has been strong, and for good reason.  Many people look up to Kobe as a role model, and why not? He's won five NBA titles, works hard and plays through injury, and has kept a pretty clean record besides his 'rape' trial in which he was acquitted.  Does Kobe have to be a role model? No. He's just out there playing basketball making a living.  But many people do see him as one, which is what makes his actions troubling.  One would expect such an exploit from DeMarcus Cousins or Rasheed Wallace, but not Kobe. 

Fortunately Kobe has already taken some steps to "repair" his image.  Kobe and the Lakers decided to team with the Gay & Lesbian Alliance Against Defamation to help fight homophobia in basketball.  This is clearly great PR, but just because Kobe couldn't find a better word choice doesn't mean that he is a homophobe.  In a piece for the New York Times, a former NBA player cites: "You spoke ill-advised words that shot out like bullets, and if the emails I received from straight and gay young people and sports fans in Los Angeles alone are anything to go by, you did serious damage with your outburst."  Such a backlash is not surprising, but did serious damage occur? Kobe was clearly not speaking out against the homosexual community as a whole, let alone labeling the referee he was speaking to as a fag.  Yes his word choice was repulsive and ignorant, but was he seriously condemning the referee as a "fucking faggot"? No.  Kobe's large fine was not warranted, he'll learn enough from the backlash from the community and will probably put forth more than $100,000 worth of his time toward helping the homosexual community from this point out.  Chris Paul was recently fined $15,000 for 'verbally abusing' a referee. Verbal abuse generally means saying more then a two-word phrase.  Kobe clearly does not deserve a $100,000 fine for his ignorant actions, and it's unfortunate that the NBA feels the need to fine him such a large amount when he'll lose enough money and fans for his poor word choice.

Winning: LeBron James

One may think that LeBron is a pretty obvious candidate for the 'winning' series, and he is, but this focuses on his achievements since 'The Decision' as opposed to the plethora he has accomplished throughout his lifetime.  First, I focus on his achievements on the basketball court.



New team, better teammates, same stats


Going into the 2010-2011 season LeBron was fresh off two consecutive MVP awards and three straight seasons in which he averaged over 27-7-7 (pts,rbs,ast) a game.  Playing alongside fellow superstars Chris Bosh and Dwyane Wade, LeBron's numbers were expected to take a bit of a hit, especially in the points category.  Have his numbers declined? Hardly!  LeBron averaged 29.7-7.3-8.7 last season, and has maintained those approximate averages with 26.7-7.5-7.0 this season.  One benefit of playing on the Heat is that LeBron doesn't have to carry such a heavy load. His field goal percentage increased to .510% from .503% in 2009-2010.  Despite playing on such a talented team, LeBron has managed to maintain his superb statistics while continuing his winning ways with the Heat. Off the court, 'The Decision' left a sour taste in the mouths of many NBA fans, especially those from Cleveland.  One would think, why would LeBron leave the town he grew up near, leaving his childhood, success, and a strong supportive atmosphere behind?  Evidently LeBron came to the conclusion he couldn't win an NBA title in Cleveland.  Was there a backlash to his decision? Originally yes, but now? Yesterday Lebron's jersey became the top worldwide seller, surpassing Kobe Bryant.  This was the first time LeBron's jersey was the top seller since 2004.  LeBron was clearly grateful for this, saying:

“ It just shows that I've still got a lot of fans out there, man. ... I'm not perfect. I've made mistakes. I'm trying to move forward. But as a basketball player and a role model I am trying to do the right thing. ”
-- LeBron James

Some athletes don't realize what a positive impact they can have if they try and serve their constituents as a positive role model.  Clearly LeBron James realizes this and appreciates his supporters.



A combination with very profitable potential


Moving away from the world of basketball, LeBron recently teamed with Fenway Sports Group to purchase a share of Liverpool FC, the sixth-most valuable soccer club in the world (and the hated rivals of my favorite team Everton).  Forbes estimates Liverpool to be worth $822 million dollars, and a very small piece of that could still deem very profitable.  Expanding his image in a more global manner could be a great move for LeBron! By exchanging some of his marketing rights to Fenway Sports Group in exchange for shares in a British soccer club should only help expand his presence.  Basketball is quite popular in the U.K. and throughout Europe in general, so this seems like one of many 'winning' moves for LeBron.

Revisiting the Carmelo Anthony Trade



He plays defense like this too.



Looking back to the middle of the NBA season, all the hype surrounded Carmelo Anthony.  Was he staying in Denver?  Would he be traded to the Nets? Would he be traded to the Knicks?  Would he be traded to the Lakers???  Melo was shipped to New York along with Chauncey Billups and several others in a package for Wilson Chandler, Raymond Felton, Danilo Gallinari, and two more players.  This move was supposed to give the Knicks the opportunity to compete with Chicago, Boston, and Miami in the East, while Denver was supposed to slip out of playoff contention and be content with building for next year.

What resulted from this deal? The complete opposite.  The Nuggets were 32-25 when the trade occured. Since? 18-6 and have wrapped up the #5 seed in the Western Conference with a cumulative 50-31 record.  The Knicks sported a 28-26 record before the trade, and are now 42-38, playing near .500 basketball at 14-12 since Anthony came to town. 

Why has this trade not worked out?  First, playing Anthony at Small Forward as opposed to Chandler or Gallinari gives the Knicks less size on defense (as well as less work ethic).  Second, Anthony is not a good fit in Mike D'Antoni's offense and neither is Billups.  Both those players are more comfortable in a half court offense, as opposed to the up-tempo one D'Antoni runs.  Clearly the Knicks can adjust their offense around Anthony, but that will take time and Knicks fans are pretty impatient...  Finally, the loss of Chandler and Gallinari limits the amount of frontcourt players the Knicks can play in their rotation.  Can they really rely on major minutes off the bench from Shawne Williams and Jared Jeffries? I didn't think so.

Wilson Chandler and his fellow
former Knicks have thrived
in Denver

Meanwhile, the Denver Nuggets are thriving.  The superb play of both Raymond Felton and Ty Lawson gives Denver a constant scoring threat from the backcourt to compliment Aron Afflalo's defense and JR Smith's offense at the SG position.  Their frontcourt is now extremely deep with Nene, Chris Anderson, Kenyon Martin, Wilson Chandler, Danilo Gallinari, and Al Harrington.  The Nuggets enter their playoff series against the Oklahoma City Thunder with a lot of confidence, while the Knicks have struggled to find their rhythm and now face arguably the top defensive team in the league!  As Marilynn always says, and is right about "Carmelo Anthony? Whatever!"

Winning: Mark Cuban

In my second entry on 'Winning,' I shift my focus from the NFL to the NBA.  Mark Cuban, owner of the Dallas Mavericks, is clearly winning.  Cuban started off small in 1982, working as a bartender in Dallas and then as a salesman at a software company.  Mark then proceeded to start his own company, MicroSolutions, with the support of previous customers from his work as a salesman.  By 1990, Cuban sold MicroSolutions for $6 million, personally retaining $2 million in the sale.  Cuban continued his entrepreneurial ways by starting Audionet with a partner, combining their interest in college basketball and webcasting.  This company becaome Broadcast.com, and by 1999 was earning $13.5 million in revenue.  Taking advantage of the dot com boom, Cuban allowed Broadcast.net to be acquired by Yahoo for $5.9 billion and diversified his assets to secure his wealth.

As the current owner of the Mavericks, whom he purchased in January 2000, Cuban changed the culture around the fans and the atmosphere in the arena.  Once he became the owner, Cuban did not upgrade his previous seats to luxurious box seats, instead choosing to cheer next to his common fans.  Cuban also encouraged fans to email him with questions and complaints about the team, and introduced a three-sided shot clock, which allows anyone from the arena to see it!  Since Cuban took over the Mavericks, they have made the playoffs in all ten seasons, including a trip to the NBA Finals in 2006 where they lost 4-2 to the Miami Heat.  Despite his strong fervor for his team, Cuban has been fined over $1.3 million dollars for bad behavior by the league!  However, for every $ he is fined he donates an equivalent amount to charity.

In addition to the success of the Mavericks, Cuban has attempted to buy several other professional sports teams, most notably the Texas Rangers and the Chicago Cubs.  Cuban submitted a bid of $1.3 billion to the Cubs in July 2008, yet was not invited to participate in the final bidding process in July 2009.  More recently Cuban bid to purchase his in-state Texas Rangers.  He managed to outbid a group led by Nolan Ryan, with a bid of nearly $600 million dollars, yet lost his deal to Ryan's group. 

Besides his business ventures, Cuban has appeared on Dancing with the Stars, and in various films and tv shows, most notably Entourage this past season.  His rash attitude and indifference to other's opinion makes him a polarizing, yet quite interesting figure.  Why else is Mark Cuban winning? He has lashed out against the current BCS system here, and vigorously campaigns for a new system.  He also appeared with Charlie Sheen on Jimmy Kimmel several weeks ago, and is trying to start a reality TV show with the former 'Two and a Half Men' star on his HDNet channel in addition to potentially broadcasting some of his tour on HDNet.  If that's not winning then I don't know what is!

NCAA Title Game Prediction!

Butler-UConn, Monday April 4th @ 9:23 pm ET

Hey guys, hope you had a chance to read my last blog regarding predictions for Saturday's games.  If not, I insist you check it out.  My prediction was extremely accurate for the VCU-Butler game, as Butler won by eight points in a close game down the stretch, just as I predicted. Now before I start stroking my ego too much, let me say I was pretty far off on the Kentucky-UConn game.  Yes, Kentucky looked liked the better team throughout the game. Yes, Kentucky did go 4-12 from the free throw line. Yes, Kentucky missed too many WIDE OPEN three's. Yet, UConn won and has a shot at their first NCAA title since 2004. 

And so we reach the NCAA Title game: Butler was expected to have a big season, and underachieved up until March. UConn was expected to be a middling-Big East team, and they were, despite the fact they went undefeated in non-conference play and won every close game down the stretch.  The Huskies, and specifically Kemba Walker, seem to 'get up' for tournament-style play and their freshman players have really developed throughout the year.  One thing both these teams have in common: winning the close games.  Lets take a look at each of these team's performances in their last 10 games decided by 5 points or less, and if a game goes into overtime it counts as 5 or less regardless of the final discrepancy:

  Date      Opponent         Score       Result    Record
                               Connecticut Huskies
    4/2         Kentucky        56-55          W            1-0
    3/26       Arizona           65-63          W            2-0
    3/12      Louisville         69-66          W            3-0
    3/11       Syracuse         76-71           W           4-0
    3/10      Pittsburgh       76-74           W           5-0
    3/5        Notre Dame     67-70           L            5-1
    2/24      Marquette      67-74 (OT)          L            5-2
    2/5        Seton Hall        61-59          W           6-2
    1/29      Louisville        78-79 (2OT)     L             6-3
    1/17      Villanova         61-59           W           7-3


                                                       Butler Bulldogs
    3/26       Florida           74-71 (OT)      W            1-0
    3/19      Pittsburgh       71-70           W            2-0
    3/17     Old Dominion  60-58           W             3-0
    2/15      Wisc- GB         64-62           W            4-0
    2/3     Youngstown St   60-62           L             4-1
    1/29     Valparaiso       79-85 (OT)       L             4-2
    1/23    Wisc - Milw       80-86 (OT)      L             4-3
    1/16     Wright St          64-69           L             4-4   
    1/9     Youngstown St    84-79          W            5-4
    12/23    Florida St         67-64          W            6-4

Clearly both these teams have played well in tight games down the strech, despite some struggles during conference play, and they wouldn't be here today without knowing how to win close games.  It seems that Connecticut has more experience playing in tight games, due to the competitive nature of their conference, but Butler has won three NCAA tournament games in the final seconds or in OT, led by Matt Howard's strong, instinctual efforts.  Butler and UConn match up pretty well against each other, as Alex Oriakhi and Charles Okwandu should have trouble with Matt Howard down low, while a combination of Ronald Nored, Khyle Marshall, and maybe even Shelvin Mack will have difficulties defending Kemba Walker.  In my opinion, I know what to expect from Butler: a solid, no nonsense game.  They are well coached and have been here before, so they'll be ready to play.  UConn's freshmen are the X-Factor's for this game.  If Shabazz Napier can keep defending at a high level, distribute well, and avoid poor shots, UConn's level of play will really rise.  If Jeremy Lamb continues to assume the level of play he has established throughout the tournament, UConn will be able to impose a more athletic level of play upon Butler.  Can Kemba and his freshman partners in crime deny Butler the goal they almost attained last year?  I don't think so.

Make it: Butler 64 - UConn 59

Best of luck to both teams in what has been an NCAA tournament filled with surprises!

Final Four Preview: Pretty Wild(cats)!

The Final Four is finally upon is, and it seems like I haven't seen a basketball game in ages!  The heavy concentration of games the past two weeks made this week quite a drag, as no games were played Thursday or Friday.  However, we're back in business as the Final Four begins tomorrow in Houston, Texas, starting with Virginia Commonwealth vs. Butler at 6:09 pm ET and followed shortly after by Kentucky vs Connecticut at 8:49 pm ET.  Considering the way these teams finished the regular season, it's no surprise they made it this far. 

Kentucky captured the SEC Conference Tournament, soundly defeating NCAA Tournament #2 seed Florida in the final.  They defeated Ivy League champion Princeton, West Virginia, Big Ten champ and overall #1 seed Ohio State, and North Carolina on their road to the Final Four.  It's amazing how John Calipari reloaded following the departure of five players to the NBA last year, including #1 pick John Wall.

Kemba Walker and UConn are
two games removed from
their first NCAA title since 2004!

UConn tore through the Big East tournament, winning five games in five days to capture the title, culminating with a win over Louisville in the final.  They proceeded to defeat Bucknell, Cincinnati, Mountain West Champion San Diego State, and Arizona on their path to the Final Four.  Although this team is led by Kemba Walker, role players have stepped up throughout the tournament. 
VCU made the Colonial Athletic Association final, losing to Old Dominion in a close game.  Since then, VCU defeated USC, Georgetown, Purdue, Florida St. and Big 12 Champion Kansas on the road to the Final Four.  What's impressive about VCU is they keep winning with limited size, and a high percentage of three point field goals.  By far the most volatile, but most dangerous team in the Final Four considering their seed.

Butler recovered from a slow start to the season to win the Horizon League Championship and received an automatic bid.  Butler defeated CAA champ Old Dominion, Big East regular season champion Pittsburgh, Wisconsin, and SEC runner-up Florida to reach the Final Four.  Butler's team just knows how to win, evidenced from their run to the NCAA Championship game last year and superb play down the stretch against Florida, Old Dominion, and Pittsburgh.

Josn Harrellson has established himself as a
strong low-post presence, adding another
weapon to Kentucky's arsenal

So who'll emerge victorious in these games?  Connecticut and Kentucky played earlier this season in the Maui Classic, UConn winning 84-67.  However, this Kentucky team is much more mature then they were back in November.  They've won their past eleven games, and each game they've lost since the beginning of February has been by four points or less.  This team is always in the game, and never gets blown out.  Plus, they've already defended against Kemba Walker and should know to some extent what to expect from him.  Brandon Knight is turning into a star distributing the ball and driving to the hoop, while Terrence Jones excels at scoring.  Doron Lamb, Darius Miller, and DeAndre Liggins are threats from outside, while Josh Harrellson has steadily improved as a force in the paint.  This team is not very deep, but is extremely talented and atheltic, staying out of foul trouble.  Connecticut has finished the season exceptionally strong as well, winning its past nine ballgames.  Shabazz Napier and Jeremy Lamb have stepped up their play down the stretch, increasing the options on this ballclub.  UConn already has a win over Kentucky this year, which should give them confidence.  Yet, this Kentucky team as far more experienced and battle-tested then that team in November.  This game could go either way, as both teams finished the season strong, but I see Kentucky winning this game with some clutch play by Brandon Knight down the stretch.

Make it: Kentucky 76 - UConn 70

Brad Stevens has established himself as one of
the nation's premier coaches, leading
Butler to consecutive Final Four's

Butler and VCU both overcame mid-season adversity to successfully earn NCAA bids, Butler's through the Horizon League championship and VCU's through one of the last at-large bids.  Think of how different this year's tournament may have been if not for the expansion from 65 to 68 teams, the Rams may not have been included.  VCU didn't necessarily finish the season 'strong' yet made the final of their conference tournament, coincidentally losing to an Old Dominion team which Butler defeated in the 1st round of the NCAA tournament.  However, the Rams are shooting 44 percent from three during the NCAA tournament, despite a poor rebounding margin and a mediocre defense.  It seems that opposing squads haven't prepared for and haven't seen many teams like VCU whose play deviates so much from the status quo.  However, Butler has had six days to prepare for VCU, and has athletic, on-ball defenders to handle the versatility of the VCU guards and forwards.  Shelvin Mack and Ronald Nored are excellent defenders, and Butler plays an eight-deep rotation which provides flexibility if some players are in foul trouble.  I just can't see Butler not preparing well for this game, and I don't know if VCU has an answer for Matt Howard down low.  Despite their cinderalla run last year, Butler is determined to return to the ball again behind strong upper-class leadership and excellent coaching by Brad Stevens.  Butler wins this game if it is close down the stretch, and I can truly only see VCU winning this game if they shoot a high percentage from downtown and force Butler to play a faster tempo.

Make it: Butler 66 - VCU 58

Check back Sunday for a preview of the NCAA title game, I'm expecting Kentucky to win at this point, but I'll have more of an idea following tonight's games!

Winning: Chad Ochocinco

I've decided to incorporate a new weekly post titled 'Winning.'  These posts will reflect on athletes and their Q-ratings.  So without further adieu, who better to start with then Mr. Chad Ochocinco!

Ochocinco has done an impressive job branding himself as much more than just a Wide Receiver for the Cincinnati Bengals.  Most recently, Ochocinco tried out for Sporting Kansas City of the MLS, formerly the Kansas City Wizards.  Suprisingly, Ochocinco was rewarded a spot on their reserve team, although designated as an 'honorary member of the team' by Manager Peter Vermes.  Considering reserve teams for most squads like these feature young players who are working towards making the first team, it's surprising they would offer a spot to a player with zero chance of making the actual roster.  However, this is where the Q-rating and celebrity status of an athlete like Ochocinco comes into play.  The publicity in this relationship is beneficial to both parties. 

Part-time football player, full time entrepreneur

Ochocinco gets media coverage for trying to make the jump to professional soccer, and  the MLS gets increased recognition through the courtship of a star athlete.  Michelle Kaufman of the Miami Herald sums it up by stating, "Ochocinco usually draws eye rolls with his publicity stunts, but this one makes sense from his end."  On point with the second part, but eye rolls? How about rolls of bills!  This guy reaps profits from people pointing and laughing at him!  Ochocinco ranked as the 5th most hated athlete in a study done by the Q-Scores company, yet why should people hate him?  His contemporaries on that list include mega-stars with a bad rap sheet such as Michael Vick, Tiger Woods, and Ben Roethlisberger. Ochocinco happens to market himself so well that ESPN and other sports networks and sites happen to catch them all.  He was recently rated the '2nd most powerful Twitter user' by researchers at Twitalyzer. Twitalyzer measures influence by how people shape the conversation on Twitter, in terms of being mentioned and having their own tweets re-tweeted, and not just how many followers a tweeter reaches. So Ochocinco, whose Twitter account features breaking stories from the Ochocinco News Network, is more influential on Twitter than celebrities like Lady Gaga and Justin Bieber, who have far more followers than he does.  Ochocinco was also featured on 'Dancing with the Stars' and his own reality tv show: Ochocinco: The Ultimate Catch on VH1.

Now that Ochocinco is such a figure in the social media community, what prompted his rise?  Touchdown celebrations!  I'll let you watch them as opposed to describing them myself, but the publicity he gains from them are substantial.  I'm interested in calculating the opportunity cost of the fines he receives for his on-field antics compared to the profits he gains from the increase in publicity.  The way the media covers him, they are basically encouraging him to disobey NFL rules because its beneficial to his bank account!

Heat-Pistons Game, What a Birthday Present!

This past Wednesday, March 23rd I had the pleasure of attending the Detroit Pistons vs Miami Heat game at the Palace of Auburn Hills with Marilynn.  She purchased us tickets to the game as a birthday present to me, and damn was it a treat! 

Although Howard didn't play, he
seemed to be in high spirits!

We got to the Palace @ approximately 6 pm right when the doors opened, Marilynn sporting her LeBron shirt, while I rocked the D-Wade gear.  We were really eager to get to our seats, as Marilynn came through big time and got us tickets in the sixth row from the floor!  Considering I had never been that close to the floor at a sporting event before (Okemos High School basketball games don't count) I was quite excited.  We get down to our seats, and we had an excellent view of the Miami Heat bench.  Perfect! I would have the chance to see, in person, how much Chris Bosh resembles a dinosaur!  As we settle in we get to see Juwan Howard warming up, and even though he hasn't made an impact in the NBA since I was in middle school, I appreciate what he has done for the game as an alumnus of my Michigan Wolverines and as a member of the Fab Five.  Howard greeted every player on both teams like they were an old friend, and mingled with Pistons staff.  Clearly he is well-liked around the league and knows a plethora of people considering he has been playing in the NBA since 1994!

Around 7:15 the Heat come out to warm up.  Marilynn's favorite player is LeBron James, so naturally she was really geeked to seem him play and just observe his mannerisms from up close.  James was all fun & games during warm up, and the Heat looked like they have truly bonded as a team.  On another note, LeBron and Dwyane Wade look a lot more muscular on television. Up close LeBron's legs didn't look as thick or powerful as I expected. Following the warm-up, the crowd proceeded to boo LeBron during pregame introductions.  I understand that LeBron is a pretty polarizing figure, but shouldn't Pistons fans be happy that he isn't playing for Cleveland anymore?  The Cavaliers are one of the Piston's rivals, thus the Pistons should be content that they can beat up on the Cavs again for the first time since 2003. 

The game itself was really enjoyable!  The Pistons shot over 50% from the field up until the fourth quarter, when the Heat seemed to focus more on their defense.  The Heat ended up winning 100-94, starting the fourth quarter on a 15-0 and never relinquishing their lead, and you can find the box score here. Below are some quick observations and analyses from the game:

(1) Greg Monroe is a budding star: Yes, this comment may be a bit premature, but take a look at his stat line from this game and his statistics since the All-Star break.

Expect big things in the future from
Rookie Greg Monroe

March 23rd vs Miami Heat: 35 min, 14 pts, 12 rbs (5 orbs), 2 ast, 2 stl, 2 to, +/- = +9
Averages in March: 32.3 mpg, 13.4 ppg, .573 fg%, 9.3 rpg, 2.0 apg, 1.8 stlpg

Monroe has been very productive since taking over for Ben Wallace, and his statistics don't support how well he played against Miami wednesday night.  Monroe was dominant on the boards due to his superior athleticism and positioning.  Expect him to develop into one of the best centers in the Eastern Conference over the upcoming year's.

(2) The Heatles can coexist peacefully: there seems to be an equal distribution of plays ran for each player, and all three are above-average passers for their position.  I was particularly impressed with Chris Bosh's vision and agility in this game.  He has really quick post moves and his mid-range jumper is excellent for a player his size.  What Bosh gives up on the boards he more then makes up for with his passing and shooting.  Marilynn did point out that he looks more awkward up close then on the television, an assertion I agree with, but clearly he knows his role in the Miami Heat offense.  Wade and LeBron seemed to fade in and out of the game, as the motion in the Heat offense isn't the most effective.  Sometimes you could predict which of them would take it to the whole, but regardless of who did obviously both are great at drawing double-teams and getting fouled.  Once the motion in the Heat offense improves, both LeBron and Wade could get more open looks. 

(3) Rip still has it, and Stuckey sucks!:  Richard Hamilton provided the Pistons with the shooting touch they were looking for when they signed Tracy McGrady.  Playing McGrady at the point forced the Heat to put their smallest defender on Hamilton, who capitalized on some open looks on the baseline.  As weird as it seemed that the Pistons most effective lineup was McGrady-Hamilton-Prince-Monroe-Wilcox, with no true ballhandler in the game, it seemed to work well on both ends of the floor.  Also, Rodney Stuckey IS NOT the answer at Point Guard for the Pistons.  Not only was he boo'd, but also his shot selection was suspect.  At times he made some flashy plays, but at other moments he looked lost or stuck, hehe. 

Look at these
little ballers!

(4) LeBron's kids are really cute: LeBron's fiancee and kids had courtside seats next to the Heat bench for this game.  During timeouts LeBron would sometimes go over to talk with his children, and after the game his kids starting running around the floor.  Both Marilynn and I wonder if they know how famous their father is, but they really seemed to enjoy themselves!

Overall, it was a great game to watch and a great experience.  The Pistons kept up with the Heat for most of the game, which I did not expect.  Most of all, it was a great birthday gift to me, and my girlfriend got to see her favorite athlete up-close.  Can the Heat progress to the point that they can compete with the Bulls and the Celtics come playoff time? I am excited to find out!

NCAA Tournament Reflections Thus Far: Parity defies Tradition

This past week I had the pleasure of returning to Williamston/Okemos/East Lansing for my spring break.  When I returned home from the airport, I made my way to my room upstairs.  An NCAA tourney bracket I had filled out in 2006 remained on my bulletin board!  It had UConn and Duke playing in the final with UConn winning the whole tournament.  If you were unaware, this team boasted future NBA players Rudy Gay, Jeff Adrien, Hilton Armstrong, Marcus Williams, Josh Boone, and AJ Price.  After perusing through the bracket, I chuckled at how poorly I had predicted the Final Four.  I had George Mason losing to Michigan St in the 1st round and Florida losing to Ohio St in the Sweet 16; those teams ended up meeting in the Final Four!  The only team I correctly predicted to make the Final Four was UCLA.  Little did I know that that bracket would closely resemble this year's...

Each year I ponder whether I should try to create an algorithm to predict the winner of the NCAA tournament.  In the past I've been able to predict the winning team about 50% of the time.  Since I started intensely following college basketball in 2003, I've predicted the winner correctly with UConn in 2004, UNC in 2005, Florida, in 2007, Kansas in 2008, and UNC in 2009.  I feel like two characteristics stick out in teams that win the NCAA tourney.  These may seem obvious, but nonetheless are important:

(1) Many future NBA players on the team:

Joakim Noah and co. powered Florida
to two NCAA titles.

Florida's whole starting five from the 2006-2007 championship teams made the NBA: Corey Brewer, Joakim Noah, Al Horford, Taureen Grean and Lee Humphrey (briefly), and Maurice Speights off the bench.

Kansas's core from the 2008 championship team: Darrell Arthur, Cole Aldrich, Mario Chalmers, Brandon Rush, Sherron Collins, and Darnell Jackson all made it into the NBA.

(2) Strong inside presence:
UConn's 2004 championship team:
Emeka Okafor - 6'9
Hilton Armstrong - 6'10
Josh Boone - 6'10
Charlie Villanueva - 6'10

UNC's 2005 championship team:
Jawad Williams - 6'9
Marvin Williams - 6'9
Damian Grant - 6'11
Sean May - 6'9

Kyle Singler and a star-studded Duke
squad couldn't make it past
the Sweet 16

This year I filled out four brackets, and based my winner's on both these categories.  Therefore, I had Ohio St winning in one of my brackets, as they have a strong inside presence with Jared Sullinger and Dallas Lauderdale, as well as future pro prospects on the wings including Jon Diebler, William Buford and David Lighty in addition to Sullinger.  I also had Duke winning in two of my brackets, as Nolan Smith, Kyle Singler, Seth Curry, Kyrie Irving, and Andre Dawkins are arguably pro prospects and the Plumlee brothers are serviceable in the low post.  In another bracket I had Kansas winning, as Markieff and Marcus Morris are NBA-caliber forwards, and Josh Selby and Tyshawn Taylor are pro prospects as well.  Clearly none of these teams panned out.  But do Butler, VCU, UConn and Kentucky/UNC defy my formula?

VCU definitely defies the formula for a tournament winning team.  This team shoots an abundance of three-pointers, starts three guards 6-6 or shorter, and lacks a scoring big.  VCU shot 12-25 from beyond the arc to beat Kansas today, while playing four guards for most of the game. 

Butler sports a tough big and NBA prospect with Matt Howard, along with future NBA player Shelden Mack.  Although this team may come across is a pretty average team, they are fundamentally strong, and have played together for a long time as the top players on the team are all juniors and seniors.  This team just flat out knows how to win, and has a girth of tournament experience with most its players returning from last year's NCAA Title game run. 

Can Brandon Knight lead a young
but talented Kentucky team to
the NCAA title?

Kentucky and UNC are packed with future pro's.  It's no surprise that these two teams are competing for a birth in the Final Four, as there is an impeccable amount of talent on the court in this game.  Carolina has a strong inside presence with John Henson and Tyler Zeller, and Harrison Barnes will be a star at the next level.  Kentucky sports Brandon Knight, Terrence Jones, Darius Miller, and DeAndre Liggins, who should translate to the next level.  The winner of this game should, in my opinion, win the NCAA title unless...

...UConn can defeat the winner of this game.  Kemba Walker is a superstar, and freshman Jeremy Lamb, Tyler Olander, and Shabazz Napier are all potential NBA prospects, in addition to sophomore Alex Oriakhi.  This team is young, but has been riding Kemba Walker to the Final Four. 
We will see how far Kemba can take them, maybe all the way to the title.

So this year parity has defied tradition on the road to the Final Four, no #1 or #2 seeds made the Final Four, and a #11 seed will be playing a #8 for the chance to play for the NCAA Championship.  Traditional powers have fallen to young upstarts and mid-majors.  Check back later in the week for previews of the Final Four.  And although my brackets have crumbled apart this year, it's great to see parity in college basketball!!

Bubble Results: A Critique

The NCAA tournament never comes and goes without complaints, and Selection Sunday is the day where 'Bubble Teams' can complain about the injustices they experienced by failing to make the tournament.  For most of these teams, winning one more game or playing a slightly tougher schedule would have made the difference between making the tournament and heading to the NIT.  A perennial member of this 'Bubble Team' category is Seth Greenberg's Virginia Tech Hokies, who have been snubbed of a NCAA birth the past two years.  Along with them, several other teams feel like they were 'snubbed' from the NCAA tourney.  Lets take a look at what I believe to be three teams that don't deserve a birth, and three teams that should be in the tournament:

Should Be Out:

The Trojans found a way to make it back
to the NCAA tournament!

USC Trojans - 19-14, 10-8 Pac Ten.   This USC team played an interesting non-conference schedule, losing to some very poor teams and beating some strong ones.  Losses to Rider, Bradley, and TCU are inexcusable, and losing at home to Oregon in conference play was a bad loss as well.  However, the Trojans did beat Texas and Tennessee.  Should those non-conference wins have been sufficient to put a team with an RPI of 67 into the tournament? Probably not, considering how soft the Pac-Ten is as a conference.  USC should be taking its 19-14 record to the NIT this week.

Great jerseys, but they lack
a solid non-conference resume

Marquette - 20-14, 9-9 Big East.  The Golden Eagles were horrible in their non-conference schedule, and must have snuck into the tournament by winning two games in the Big East tournament.  Marquette did not defeat one Top-50 opponent in non-conference play, and it's only key road win against a strong team was at Connecticut.  I feel like they received this birth based on reputation and past performance, as Marquette generally wins a game or two in the tournament.  Teams like Colorado and Virginia Tech beat better teams and would have been more competitive then this Marquette squad.

Florida St - 21-10, 11-5 ACC.  Although the Seminoles finished with a strong record in ACC play, its worth pointing out that they only have two wins against tournament teams this season, at home to Duke and to Clemson.  Florida St has an RPI of 55, which one would think is good enough to land them a spot in the tournament, but their non-conference schedule was weak in that they didn't beat any tournament teams.  Losing three of it's last five games, including losses to Maryland and Virginia Tech shows that the Seminoles are trending downward and should disappoint in the NCAA tournament.


Should Be In:
Saint Mary's Gaels - 23-8, 11-3 West Coast Conference. Saint Mary's assembled a strong record in conference play and built a RPI of 48.  This team also defeated a Top-25 team in St. Johns, one more top-25 team then either Michigan or Clemson defeated all season.  Although the SOS was 105, the RPI says it all that Saint Mary's would have been a decent tournament team. Their performance in the tournament last year proves that they can make some noise in the NCAA tournament, and it's disappointing to see them headed to the NIT this year.

Colorado Buffaloes - 20-13, 8-8 Big 12 Conference.  Colorado ammased wins against Kansas St, three times, and Texas.  They also finished .500 in conference play.  A .500 record in-conference was enough to get Michigan, Michigan St, Illinois, and Penn St into the tournament, so why not a Colorado team with more wins against the Top-25 then any one of those teams?  Yes the Buffaloes did play a weak non-conference schedule and had a less-then-ideal RPI, but those wins had to count for something.  Guess they weren't enough...



Tommy Amaker's Crimson should de dancing,
 but instead will be playing in the NIT


Harvard Crimson - 23-6, 12-2 Ivy League.  Harvard ammased a strong resume this season, with going undefeated at home, and only losing one game to a non-NCAA tourney team (rival Yale).  Tommy Amaker's club defeated Colorado and Princeton, as well as a Boston College team that barely missed out on the tournament.  With an RPI of 35, it's hard to swallow how the Tigers didn't make the tourney. However, their SOS of 140 was a glaring weakness which the Selection Committee must have focused heavily on.

Hope you are filling out your bracket(s) as the tournament begins tomorrow.  Check back soon for previews of each region and the first weekend of games!