Hey guys, Rob Brereton here. Senior at St. Olaf College in Minnesota and here are my reflections on the world of sports. I hope this blog proves entertaining, informative, and educational.
The Eastern Conference Semifinals are finally upon us, and the top three contenders are still in the mix with an outsider added in. The Bulls and Heat both took care of business in five tough games against their respective opponents, the Pacers and the Sixers. Both teams looked relatively sluggish throughout but their superior talent helped them prevail. Boston dispatched of the New York Knicks in four quick games, an outcome unexpected by most, as the Celtics ended the regular season with poor play down the stretch. The odd man out in these Eastern Conference Semifinals is the Atlanta Hawks. Atlanta used strong defense and a barrage of different weapons on offense to eliminate Dwight Howard and company in six intensely contested games. Can the Hawks beat the Bulls? Can LeBron and D-Wade finally defeat their arch-nemesis the Celtics? Find out below with my Eastern Conference Semifinals Preview
Atlanta Hawks vs Chicago Bulls
Derrick Rose and the Chicago Bulls
should prove too strong for the
Atlanta Hawks
While Atlanta surprised a cold shooting Magic team, the Bulls had some trouble dealing with the Indiana Pacers, winning three of their four games by six points or less. Throughout the regular season, the Bulls took two of three from Atlanta, winning 114-81 at Atlanta in their most recent meeting. Like in the Grizzlies-Nuggets series, Point Guard play should be the deciding factor. Derrick Rose has developed into one of the top point guards in the league, along side Chris Paul and Deron Williams in my book, as he has increased his range and improved his shooting in his third year. Against the Hawks this year Rose averaged 25.3 ppg and 9.0 apg in only 33 mpg, meaning that he was extremely productive and difficult to defend when he was on the court. Carlos Boozer and Joakim Noah are more effective in the paint than Josh Smith and Al Horford, and although Joe Johnson and Jamal Crawford are sold scorers from the wing, Luol Deng and Kyle Korver can shoot outside just as well. The only advantage I see for the Hawks is their depth and the scoring of Joe Johnson, but besides that this is Chicago's series to lose. If Chicago plays with more confidence then they did against the Pacers expect this series to be over pretty quickly.
Make it: Chicago in 5
Boston Celtics vs Miami Heat
Chris Bosh needs to become more of
a factor on offense for the Heat
to advance
Clearly this is the most-hyped series of the Conference Semifinals, and deservedly so. Of the Eastern Conference teams remaining the Celtics are the most experienced and battle tested, while the Heat are the most talented and flashy. The Celtics took three of four games from the Heat this season, and despite some late season struggles, dispatched the Knicks in the first round and look as fresh and sharp as ever. Meanwhile the Heat lumbered through their series against the 76ers, starting most their games relatively sluggishly before finishing strong in the fourth quarter. This does not bode well for the Celtics, as they are generally capable of breaking down a bit during the fourth quarter. However, past performances aside, I think both these teams will be playing at their absolute best throughout this series. LeBron holds a grudge against the Celtics for taking out his old Cavs teams, but it hasn't really shown thus far this season, as he 'only' averaged 28.8 ppg, 6.5 rpg, and 6.5 apg against the Celtics this year. These numbers are pretty standard for LeBron but you would expect him to perform better against an opponent with which he has a chip on his shoulder. His fg% is only .488 against the Celtics as opposed to .510% for the season, so clearly the Celtics force him into slightly worse shots. If the Heat want to beat the Celtics, Chris Bosh needs to step it up. The Celtics traded Kendrick Perkins this winter for Jeff Green, giving them one less body down in the paint to guard players like Bosh, or Boozer/Gasol/Bynum in future series. If Bosh can take advantage of an aging frontline inculding Kevin Garnett, Jermaine O'Neal, Glen Davis, and Shaq, he should be able to push the Heat over the top. Bosh shot .550% from the field against Boston during the regular season, and if he can get more touches he might be able to make the difference between advancing and going home early.
He may look like an alien,
but he sure knows how
to pass the ball!
Regarding the Celtics play against Miami, Kevin Garnett shoots .543% against the Heat, while Ray Allen averages four three pointers made per game at a .571% clip. Paul Pierce shoots .489%, but he always seems to come through in the playoffs when needed. Judging by how the Celtics played the Heat during the regular season, and the way they swept the Knicks, one would assume Boston would continue their winning ways against the Heat. However, Boston has always been a poor road playoff team. Many have been trying to pinpoint Boston's demise over the past few years, and it may occur here as they are getting older. Yet, I think the Celtics can have another run at it. Rajon Rondo is the difference maker for the Celtics, as his distribution keeps getting better. Although his shooting may be a liability, he makes an enormous difference and can outplay either Mike Bibby or Mario Chalmers by a longshot. Celtics win this one as playoff experience trumps starpower and talent.
Hello all, sorry that I have not been updating the blog daily. Thursday was my 22nd birthday so there was various festivities regarding that over the past few days, not to mention work for my class and Skyping with my girlfriend (I am behind the times as I just downloaded Skype a few days ago). Anyways, this past week marks the midpoint of the NBA season. All the NBA teams have played between 39 and 44 games, roughly averaging out to the 41 games that make up half the regular season.
Today's blog focuses on the Eastern Conference, which has played second fiddle to the Western Conference ever since MJ retired the second time (I still think he should have been called for an offensive foul when he pushed off Byron Russell in Game six of those 1998 NBA finals!) The Eastern Conference has a large discrepancy between its elite, mediocre weak teams. The mean winning percentage is .689 for the top five teams, .431 for the middle five teams, and .2826 for the bottom five teams. That's a cumulative winning percentage of .467, so clearly the Eastern Conference is the weaker conference overall. However, that does not mean that some Eastern Conference teams should not have NBA title hopes! Below I group Eastern Conference teams into three categories regarding their playoff chances and outlook for the rest of the season:
Contenders
1. Boston Celtics - Talent is never a question with this team. Perserverance and health is. Can this team hold up throughout the season? Will the Celtics be able to rest Allen, Pierce, and Garnett a bit down the stretch so they are fresh for the playoffs? Currently sporting a 33-9 record, it's pretty impressive what the Celtics are doing without Kendrick Perkins and the minor injuries which caused Rajon Rondo and Kevin Garnett to miss some games. However, one red flag does show up. The Celtics are 25-5 against the Eastern Conference, meaning that their schedule the rest of the way will have a heavier dose of Western Conference opponents and some tough west coast roadtrips.
Projected Record: 61-21. #1 seed in the East
2. Miami Heat - the Heatles, Kings of South Beach (my apologies to the U for stealing there swagger), MV3. The acquisition of Chris Bosh and LeBron James this summer gives the Heat the most talented roster in the league for the next six years, and gave my girlfriend, a huge LeBron fan, a new team to root for. Can the Heatles finally mesh as the season continues and become a smashing success like their British counterparts? They sure are taking the basketball world by storm, like the Beatles did to the United States in 1964. If all three can stay healthy during the playoffs, its hard not to like this team's chances of winning it all. Also, they have some role players who have integrated themselves well with the three superstars. Joel Anthony grabs a lot of boards and plays tough defense, while Mike Miller and Carlos Arroyo are constant threats from deep. Expect the Heat to struggle as Bosh, LeBron, and Wade are all nursing minor injuries at the moment. However, this Heat team should be the most dangerous and talented team in the NBA for the next five years.
Projected Record: 58-24. #2 Seed in the East
3. The Derrick Rose show... Chicago Bulls - Da Bulls are back baby! Best Bulls team since the 1997-1998. The addition of Carlos Boozer was a huge lift on offense, and Derrick Rose is developing into a superstar. I am eager to see this team play when both Boozer and Noah are both healthy, as this team will be very hard to beat inside. Luol Deng is definitely the x-factor for this team. On nights that he can score, the Bulls will be extremely hard to beat. Kyle Korver adds an outside threat, and Rose's distribution continues to improve. The Bulls should, barring another injury to Boozer, be one of the top teams in the East for the next several seasons.
Projected Record: 56-26. #3 Seed in the East
4. Orlando Magic - It's a bird! It's a plane! Noooo, it's DWIGHT HOWAARRDDD! This guy is an animal down low, and if he could actually shoot the basketball would be impossible to defend. The Magic made some blockbuster moves last month to surround Superman with some new talent including Mr. Agent Zero Gilbert Arenas, J-Rich, and Hedo (take two). Hopefully these three can replace the contributions of Rashard Lewis and Vince Carter, and the emergence of Brandon Bass finally gives this team a true 4 at Power Forward. The Magic have the talent to make it through the Eastern Conference, but can they make it work with these new players joining Dwight and co?
Projected Record 55-27. #4 Seed in the East
5. Atlanta Hawks - Soaring to... mediocrity. The Hawks have the pieces to contend with any team, however, they lack a true superstar. Joe Johnson is a great shooting guard and a matchups nightmare considering his height for a SG, Josh Smith is one of the most athletic players in the game and a beast in the paint, and Al Horford is a great rebounder and solid around the rim. This team lacks a championship-caliber point guard, as Mike Bibby and Jamal Crawford do not fit the bill. Depth is an issue on the Hawks as well, especially at the power forward and center positions. This team will continue to be impressively mediocre, unless Josh Smith and Al Horford break out even more.
Projected Record 53-29. #5 Seed in the East
Pretenders
6. New York Knicks - Possibly the most exciting team to watch in basketball, the Knicks score five more ppg then any Eastern Conference team. However, like all Mike D'Antoni teams, they don't play much defense either. Raymond Felton is excelling in D'Antoni's system and meshes really well with Amare Stoudemire. Wilson Chandler and Danillo Gallinari are great complements to Amare with their outside shooting, but besides Amare this team is undersized, one cause of a weak defense. This team can compete with anyone on any given night, but is just too volatile to succeed in the playoffs.
Projected Record 44-38. #6 Seed in the East
7. Milwaukee Bucks - This team just can't seem to score any points! Brandon Jennings has been out since December and may not return for another week. Andrew Bogut is solid at center, but the team is mired in mediocrity with John Salmons, Corey Maggette, Carlos Delfino, and Ersan Ilyasova all fitting similar roles at the 3 and 4. The Bucks may play good defense but they lack the size and scoring capabilities to be competitive against the top teams in the East.
Projected Record 40-42. #7 Seed in the East
8. Philadelphia 76ers - The Sixers strike me as similar to the Bucks. They have a young, talented point guard, some good scoring on the wings, and an injury prone center. Elton Brand's health is the key to this team making the playoffs. If he can stay healthy, they could very well sneak in with a .500 record. If not? Well they could be heading for the lottery again. Andre Iguodala is a dirty talent at small forward, and Thaddeus Young provides a spark off the bench. This Sixers team, with the exception of Brand, is young and should continue to grow, but don't expect more than a first round sweep by Boston or Miami in the playoffs.
Projected Record 38-44. #8 Seed in the East
9. Charlotte Bobcats - The Bobcats lack a superstar and a solid center, so scoring points is an issue for this team. Stephen Jackson and Gerald Wallace lead the way for the 'Cats, and can create mismatches at their respective positions of SG and SF. I just cannot put my faith in a team that starts Kwame Brown at center, and has DJ Augustin running the point. Both these players make questionable decisions on the court, and Augustin needs to work on his distribution. Expect mediocrity from Charlotte the rest of the way. Although they could sneak into the playoffs, I don't expect them to.
Projected Record 36-46. Getting ready for next year!
10. Indiana Pacers - Its hard to have confidence in such a young team, but the Pacers could surprise! Danny Granger has a young supporting cast in Darren Collison, Brandon Rush, and Roy Hibbert. However, Mike Dunleavy is old and nowhere near as effective as he was a few years ago. Darren Collison needs to do a better job passing the ball and creating looks for his teammates, as the Pacers rank 21st in the league in APG. However, rebounding is a strength for this team and should continue to improve as Hibbert develops.
Projected Record 36-46. Getting ready for next year but excited for the future!
Lottery Bound
11. Detroit Pistons - The Pistons have struggled to score points and rebound all year. Surely this team misses the Wallaces from a few years ago, as Ben Wallace isn't the player he once was! Detroit ranks 29th in the league in RPG at 38.2, part of the reason why they are only scoring 95.1 PPG. Rebuilding with older players like Tracy McGrady and Richard Hamilton on their way out should set the Pistons up for success in the upcoming years. Building around a young core of Rodney Stuckey, Austin Daye, Charlie Villanueva, and Greg Monroe should help the Pistons climb up the East standings as the year's progress.
Projected Record 33-49. Lottery bound in D-town!
12. Washington Wizards - Anyone up for 'doing the John Wall?' Sending Agent Zero packing was a smart move for a Wizards team that is changing its identity. At this time last year its nucleus was Caron Butler, Antawn Jamison, and Gilbert Arenas. None of these players remain. Andray Blatche has flourished this year as well as Nick Young, who just flat out scores. Al Thornton and Rashard Lewis clog the SF position, and one should probably be traded before the trade deadline. Expect the Wizards to improve a bit throughout the rest of the year, but not too much!
Projected Record 30-52. Watch out for John Wall as the year goes on!
13. Toronto Raptors - Not much to say about the Raptors: they really miss my favorite dinosaur Chris Bosh. They don't have a true Center as Bargnani isn't big enough down low. DeMar DeRozan is turning into a good scorer, but the pieces are just not in place to form a strong team. Defense is a weakness for this club, as they allow 104.6 PPG. Expect the Raptors to keep struggling unless they pick up a strong draft pick!
Projected Record 26-56. Hoping to draft Jared Sullinger next year!
14. New Jersey Nets - The Nets are a pretty melodramatic club, now that the Carmelo Anthony talks have finished. Brook Lopez continues to develop into a stronger scorer, but where is the rebounding? Kris Humphries rebounds better than Lopez, who has no excuse to be struggling like this. Derrick Favors should continue to develop over the next few years, and Anthony Morrow and Devin Harris are still pretty young. Signing Carmelo to a long-term deal during the offseason would be a clutch pull for the Nets, but they are missing a scoring piece like him to contend
Projected Record 24-58. Working toward a (hopefully) bright future!
And finally...
15. Cleveland Cavaliers - Please stay LeBron, Please stay LeBron, pleaaaseee? And... no! LeBron takes his talents to South Beach. This season's Cleveland Cavaliers are totally lost without LeBron, and injuries to Anderson Varejao and Ramon Sessions have not helped their cause. Antawn Jamison can try to carry the scoring load, but seems unwilling to do so. Expect these Cavaliers to continue to falter, as they have not established an identity or rallied around a new leader in the lockerroom since LeBron took his talents to South Beach.
Projected Record 15-67. Trying to get that #1 pick and still mourning the loss of LeBron!
