Eastern Conference Semifinals Preview

The Eastern Conference Semifinals are finally upon us, and the top three contenders are still in the mix with an outsider added in.  The Bulls and Heat both took care of business in five tough games against their respective opponents, the Pacers and the Sixers.  Both teams looked relatively sluggish throughout but their superior talent helped them prevail.  Boston dispatched of the New York Knicks in four quick games, an outcome unexpected by most, as the Celtics ended the regular season with poor play down the stretch.  The odd man out in these Eastern Conference Semifinals is the Atlanta Hawks.  Atlanta used strong defense and a barrage of different weapons on offense to eliminate Dwight Howard and company in six intensely contested games.  Can the Hawks beat the Bulls?  Can LeBron and D-Wade finally defeat their arch-nemesis the Celtics? Find out below with my Eastern Conference Semifinals Preview

Atlanta Hawks vs Chicago Bulls 

Derrick Rose and the Chicago Bulls
should prove too strong for the
Atlanta Hawks

While Atlanta surprised a cold shooting Magic team, the Bulls had some trouble dealing with the Indiana Pacers, winning three of their four games by six points or less.  Throughout the regular season, the Bulls took two of three from Atlanta, winning 114-81 at Atlanta in their most recent meeting.  Like in the Grizzlies-Nuggets series, Point Guard play should be the deciding factor.  Derrick Rose has developed into one of the top point guards in the league, along side Chris Paul and Deron Williams in my book, as he has increased his range and improved his shooting in his third year.  Against the Hawks this year Rose averaged 25.3 ppg and 9.0 apg in only 33 mpg, meaning that he was extremely productive and difficult to defend when he was on the court.  Carlos Boozer and Joakim Noah are more effective in the paint than Josh Smith and Al Horford, and although Joe Johnson and Jamal Crawford are sold scorers from the wing, Luol Deng and Kyle Korver can shoot outside just as well.  The only advantage I see for the Hawks is their depth and the scoring of Joe Johnson, but besides that this is Chicago's series to lose.  If Chicago plays with more confidence then they did against the Pacers expect this series to be over pretty quickly.

Make it: Chicago in 5

Boston Celtics vs Miami Heat

Chris Bosh needs to become more of
a factor on offense for the Heat
to advance

Clearly this is the most-hyped series of the Conference Semifinals, and deservedly so.  Of the Eastern Conference teams remaining the Celtics are the most experienced and battle tested, while the Heat are the most talented and flashy.  The Celtics took three of four games from the Heat this season, and despite some late season struggles, dispatched the Knicks in the first round and look as fresh and sharp as ever.  Meanwhile the Heat lumbered through their series against the 76ers, starting most their games relatively sluggishly before finishing strong in the fourth quarter.  This does not bode well for the Celtics, as they are generally capable of breaking down a bit during the fourth quarter.  However, past performances aside, I think both these teams will be playing at their absolute best throughout this series.  LeBron holds a grudge against the Celtics for taking out his old Cavs teams, but it hasn't really shown thus far this season, as he 'only' averaged 28.8 ppg, 6.5 rpg, and 6.5 apg against the Celtics this year.  These numbers are pretty standard for LeBron but you would expect him to perform better against an opponent with which he has a chip on his shoulder.  His fg% is only .488 against the Celtics as opposed to .510% for the season, so clearly the Celtics force him into slightly worse shots.  If the Heat want to beat the Celtics, Chris Bosh needs to step it up.  The Celtics traded Kendrick Perkins this winter for Jeff Green, giving them one less body down in the paint to guard players like Bosh, or Boozer/Gasol/Bynum in future series.  If Bosh can take advantage of an aging frontline inculding Kevin Garnett, Jermaine O'Neal, Glen Davis, and Shaq, he should be able to push the Heat over the top.  Bosh shot .550% from the field against Boston during the regular season, and if he can get more touches he might be able to make the difference between advancing and going home early.

He may look like an alien,
but he sure knows how
to pass the ball!

Regarding the Celtics play against Miami, Kevin Garnett shoots .543% against the Heat, while Ray Allen averages four three pointers made per game at a .571% clip.  Paul Pierce shoots .489%, but he always seems to come through in the playoffs when needed.  Judging by how the Celtics played the Heat during the regular season, and the way they swept the Knicks, one would assume Boston would continue their winning ways against the Heat.  However, Boston has always been a poor road playoff team. Many have been trying to pinpoint Boston's demise over the past few years, and it may occur here as they are getting older.  Yet, I think the Celtics can have another run at it.  Rajon Rondo is the difference maker for the Celtics, as his distribution keeps getting better.  Although his shooting may be a liability, he makes an enormous difference and can outplay either Mike Bibby or Mario Chalmers by a longshot.  Celtics win this one as playoff experience trumps starpower and talent.

Make it: Celtics in 6

'The King' has Yet to Ascend the Throne

Looks like King James and the Heatles aren't ready to ascend the thrown just quite yet... riding an eight game winning streak into today's tilt with the Boston Celtics at the Garden, it was expected that the Heat would take down a crippled Celtics squad and affirm their status as the top team in the Eastern Conference.  Not so fast Miami!  The Boston Celtics held on to defeat the Miami Heat 85-82 and improved to 3-0 against them this season, this time without Shaquille and Jermaine O'Neal and only one single point from Paul 'The Truth' Pierce. 

So how do the Celtics contain the Heat so well?  Boston held the sharpshooters surrounding LeBron, Wade, and Bosh to a low three point percentage.  Mike Miller and Eddie House went a combined 1 of 9 from beyond the arc, and the Heat as a team shot 3 for 16 for an 18.8% 3-point percentage.  Guarding the perimeter was a concern coming into this game, as stretching the floor would allow LeBron and D-Wade to penetrate the lane in an easier fashion.  The Heatles accounted for 62 of Miami's 82 points, so clearly the Celtics did their job holding the Miami bench, Mario Chalmers, and Zydrunas Ilgauskas in check. 

This was a concern earlier in the year and continues to be cause for alarm.  Against strong teams, the supporting cast is just not getting the job done for the Heat.  From what I've seen, I would recommend two things to the Heat: 
(1) Play Joel Anthony more.  Anthony may be a liability on the offensive end, but his strong defensive rebounding and positioning makes him a valuable asset.  In today's game the Heat were +5 in his 21 minutes in the ballgame, more then any other player. 
(2) Give Mike Miller more of the ball.  If any player is going to step up on offense it his him. Also, can one really trust Dwyane Wade to stay healthy all season.  Miller needs to assume a larger role in the offense, regardless of whether he is needed to step in.

Hopefully the Kings of South Beach get their act together, as they currently aren't living up to their hype.  March 23rd Marilynn and I are going to see them play the Detroit Pistons, and I hope that they have made some adjustments by then so they won't disappoint her!  Her favorite player is LeBron James and clearly she wants to see an amazing game from him, but I am looking forward to seeing how the whole team works together on both ends of the court, and specifically how Joel Anthony and Mike Miller are used.  But for now, looks like the Celtics are still the Kings of the Eastern Conference, and Miami still has work to do to ascend the throne.