Baseball Picks 6/20

Hey everyone it's been a while!  Took a break for a bit to finish up school and my job search.  Now I'm back, but with a new focus on the blog for the next few months: baseball.  Ever since the Bruins won the Stanley Cup last Wednesday night, I've been bored out my mind and moping around knowing that football season does not start for at least two more months (if not more...).  Therefore, I shift my attention to the MLB.  For the near future I plan on looking at baseball betting by looking at advanced statistical measures, specifically BVP to predict outcomes such as runs scored or winning teams.  I will look at three games each day and try to predict the winner and the runline.

Monday, June 20th 2011
7:05 pm Baltimore Orioles vs Pittsburgh Pirates
Moneyline: Baltimore +102, Pittsburgh -112
Runline: 8

Considering the lack of pitching vs batting matchups in this one, it makes it pretty difficult to predict.  Jake Arrieta is pitching against Charlie Morton in this one, and only one Pittsburgh batter has ever hit against Arrieta.  Lyle Overbay is 0-3 in his career against Arrieta with no BB and no K.  However, Baltimore batters are a career 10-24 against Morton with 2 BB and 6 K.  This amounts to a .417 average and a .481 slugging percentage.  Although Morton has changed his delivery to fool batters, the Orioles average is pretty overwhelming.

Morton ERA = 3.21       Arrieta ERA = 4.45

Prediction: Baltimore +102, Runline > 8

7:10 pm San Diego Padres vs. Boston Red Sox
Moneyline: Padres +175, Red Sox -195
Runline: 10.5

Another interleague game in which each pitcher has a lack of experience against the other team.  Wade LeBlanc sports a 4.49 ERA and a startling 1.66 WHIP this year, alarmingly poor numbers.  Andrew Miller has yet to pitch in the majors this year, so don't expect much from him.  LeBlanc has never pitched against the Red Sox, while Padres have hit Andrew Miller relatively hard, going 10-28 for a .357 average with 3 BB and 8 K.  Expect both pitchers to leave early and Boston to win a relatively high scoring game.

Prediction: Boston -195, Runline > 10.5

Cueto has been very solid for a shaky Reds
pitching staff this year

7:10 pm New York Yankees vs. Cincinnati Reds
Moneyline: Yankees +110, Reds -120
Runline: 9

The Yankees throw Ivan Nova tonight against a potent Reds offense, hence the moneyline toward the Reds.  Johnny Cueto has pitched marvelous this year, sporting a 1.68 ERA and a 1.01 WHIP.  Against the Yankees in his career, Cueto has been pretty successful, with Yankees hitters batting .214 against him with 0 BB and 3 K.  Nova has only pitched against one Reds player, reserve Fred Lewis who is 1-3 against him.  Nova has been too volatile this year for the Yankees to pull this one out, and expect Cueto to continue pitching well.

Prediction: Reds -120, Runline < 9