Final Four Preview: Pretty Wild(cats)!

The Final Four is finally upon is, and it seems like I haven't seen a basketball game in ages!  The heavy concentration of games the past two weeks made this week quite a drag, as no games were played Thursday or Friday.  However, we're back in business as the Final Four begins tomorrow in Houston, Texas, starting with Virginia Commonwealth vs. Butler at 6:09 pm ET and followed shortly after by Kentucky vs Connecticut at 8:49 pm ET.  Considering the way these teams finished the regular season, it's no surprise they made it this far. 

Kentucky captured the SEC Conference Tournament, soundly defeating NCAA Tournament #2 seed Florida in the final.  They defeated Ivy League champion Princeton, West Virginia, Big Ten champ and overall #1 seed Ohio State, and North Carolina on their road to the Final Four.  It's amazing how John Calipari reloaded following the departure of five players to the NBA last year, including #1 pick John Wall.

Kemba Walker and UConn are
two games removed from
their first NCAA title since 2004!

UConn tore through the Big East tournament, winning five games in five days to capture the title, culminating with a win over Louisville in the final.  They proceeded to defeat Bucknell, Cincinnati, Mountain West Champion San Diego State, and Arizona on their path to the Final Four.  Although this team is led by Kemba Walker, role players have stepped up throughout the tournament. 
VCU made the Colonial Athletic Association final, losing to Old Dominion in a close game.  Since then, VCU defeated USC, Georgetown, Purdue, Florida St. and Big 12 Champion Kansas on the road to the Final Four.  What's impressive about VCU is they keep winning with limited size, and a high percentage of three point field goals.  By far the most volatile, but most dangerous team in the Final Four considering their seed.

Butler recovered from a slow start to the season to win the Horizon League Championship and received an automatic bid.  Butler defeated CAA champ Old Dominion, Big East regular season champion Pittsburgh, Wisconsin, and SEC runner-up Florida to reach the Final Four.  Butler's team just knows how to win, evidenced from their run to the NCAA Championship game last year and superb play down the stretch against Florida, Old Dominion, and Pittsburgh.

Josn Harrellson has established himself as a
strong low-post presence, adding another
weapon to Kentucky's arsenal

So who'll emerge victorious in these games?  Connecticut and Kentucky played earlier this season in the Maui Classic, UConn winning 84-67.  However, this Kentucky team is much more mature then they were back in November.  They've won their past eleven games, and each game they've lost since the beginning of February has been by four points or less.  This team is always in the game, and never gets blown out.  Plus, they've already defended against Kemba Walker and should know to some extent what to expect from him.  Brandon Knight is turning into a star distributing the ball and driving to the hoop, while Terrence Jones excels at scoring.  Doron Lamb, Darius Miller, and DeAndre Liggins are threats from outside, while Josh Harrellson has steadily improved as a force in the paint.  This team is not very deep, but is extremely talented and atheltic, staying out of foul trouble.  Connecticut has finished the season exceptionally strong as well, winning its past nine ballgames.  Shabazz Napier and Jeremy Lamb have stepped up their play down the stretch, increasing the options on this ballclub.  UConn already has a win over Kentucky this year, which should give them confidence.  Yet, this Kentucky team as far more experienced and battle-tested then that team in November.  This game could go either way, as both teams finished the season strong, but I see Kentucky winning this game with some clutch play by Brandon Knight down the stretch.

Make it: Kentucky 76 - UConn 70

Brad Stevens has established himself as one of
the nation's premier coaches, leading
Butler to consecutive Final Four's

Butler and VCU both overcame mid-season adversity to successfully earn NCAA bids, Butler's through the Horizon League championship and VCU's through one of the last at-large bids.  Think of how different this year's tournament may have been if not for the expansion from 65 to 68 teams, the Rams may not have been included.  VCU didn't necessarily finish the season 'strong' yet made the final of their conference tournament, coincidentally losing to an Old Dominion team which Butler defeated in the 1st round of the NCAA tournament.  However, the Rams are shooting 44 percent from three during the NCAA tournament, despite a poor rebounding margin and a mediocre defense.  It seems that opposing squads haven't prepared for and haven't seen many teams like VCU whose play deviates so much from the status quo.  However, Butler has had six days to prepare for VCU, and has athletic, on-ball defenders to handle the versatility of the VCU guards and forwards.  Shelvin Mack and Ronald Nored are excellent defenders, and Butler plays an eight-deep rotation which provides flexibility if some players are in foul trouble.  I just can't see Butler not preparing well for this game, and I don't know if VCU has an answer for Matt Howard down low.  Despite their cinderalla run last year, Butler is determined to return to the ball again behind strong upper-class leadership and excellent coaching by Brad Stevens.  Butler wins this game if it is close down the stretch, and I can truly only see VCU winning this game if they shoot a high percentage from downtown and force Butler to play a faster tempo.

Make it: Butler 66 - VCU 58

Check back Sunday for a preview of the NCAA title game, I'm expecting Kentucky to win at this point, but I'll have more of an idea following tonight's games!

NCAA Tournament Reflections Thus Far: Parity defies Tradition

This past week I had the pleasure of returning to Williamston/Okemos/East Lansing for my spring break.  When I returned home from the airport, I made my way to my room upstairs.  An NCAA tourney bracket I had filled out in 2006 remained on my bulletin board!  It had UConn and Duke playing in the final with UConn winning the whole tournament.  If you were unaware, this team boasted future NBA players Rudy Gay, Jeff Adrien, Hilton Armstrong, Marcus Williams, Josh Boone, and AJ Price.  After perusing through the bracket, I chuckled at how poorly I had predicted the Final Four.  I had George Mason losing to Michigan St in the 1st round and Florida losing to Ohio St in the Sweet 16; those teams ended up meeting in the Final Four!  The only team I correctly predicted to make the Final Four was UCLA.  Little did I know that that bracket would closely resemble this year's...

Each year I ponder whether I should try to create an algorithm to predict the winner of the NCAA tournament.  In the past I've been able to predict the winning team about 50% of the time.  Since I started intensely following college basketball in 2003, I've predicted the winner correctly with UConn in 2004, UNC in 2005, Florida, in 2007, Kansas in 2008, and UNC in 2009.  I feel like two characteristics stick out in teams that win the NCAA tourney.  These may seem obvious, but nonetheless are important:

(1) Many future NBA players on the team:

Joakim Noah and co. powered Florida
to two NCAA titles.

Florida's whole starting five from the 2006-2007 championship teams made the NBA: Corey Brewer, Joakim Noah, Al Horford, Taureen Grean and Lee Humphrey (briefly), and Maurice Speights off the bench.

Kansas's core from the 2008 championship team: Darrell Arthur, Cole Aldrich, Mario Chalmers, Brandon Rush, Sherron Collins, and Darnell Jackson all made it into the NBA.

(2) Strong inside presence:
UConn's 2004 championship team:
Emeka Okafor - 6'9
Hilton Armstrong - 6'10
Josh Boone - 6'10
Charlie Villanueva - 6'10

UNC's 2005 championship team:
Jawad Williams - 6'9
Marvin Williams - 6'9
Damian Grant - 6'11
Sean May - 6'9

Kyle Singler and a star-studded Duke
squad couldn't make it past
the Sweet 16

This year I filled out four brackets, and based my winner's on both these categories.  Therefore, I had Ohio St winning in one of my brackets, as they have a strong inside presence with Jared Sullinger and Dallas Lauderdale, as well as future pro prospects on the wings including Jon Diebler, William Buford and David Lighty in addition to Sullinger.  I also had Duke winning in two of my brackets, as Nolan Smith, Kyle Singler, Seth Curry, Kyrie Irving, and Andre Dawkins are arguably pro prospects and the Plumlee brothers are serviceable in the low post.  In another bracket I had Kansas winning, as Markieff and Marcus Morris are NBA-caliber forwards, and Josh Selby and Tyshawn Taylor are pro prospects as well.  Clearly none of these teams panned out.  But do Butler, VCU, UConn and Kentucky/UNC defy my formula?

VCU definitely defies the formula for a tournament winning team.  This team shoots an abundance of three-pointers, starts three guards 6-6 or shorter, and lacks a scoring big.  VCU shot 12-25 from beyond the arc to beat Kansas today, while playing four guards for most of the game. 

Butler sports a tough big and NBA prospect with Matt Howard, along with future NBA player Shelden Mack.  Although this team may come across is a pretty average team, they are fundamentally strong, and have played together for a long time as the top players on the team are all juniors and seniors.  This team just flat out knows how to win, and has a girth of tournament experience with most its players returning from last year's NCAA Title game run. 

Can Brandon Knight lead a young
but talented Kentucky team to
the NCAA title?

Kentucky and UNC are packed with future pro's.  It's no surprise that these two teams are competing for a birth in the Final Four, as there is an impeccable amount of talent on the court in this game.  Carolina has a strong inside presence with John Henson and Tyler Zeller, and Harrison Barnes will be a star at the next level.  Kentucky sports Brandon Knight, Terrence Jones, Darius Miller, and DeAndre Liggins, who should translate to the next level.  The winner of this game should, in my opinion, win the NCAA title unless...

...UConn can defeat the winner of this game.  Kemba Walker is a superstar, and freshman Jeremy Lamb, Tyler Olander, and Shabazz Napier are all potential NBA prospects, in addition to sophomore Alex Oriakhi.  This team is young, but has been riding Kemba Walker to the Final Four. 
We will see how far Kemba can take them, maybe all the way to the title.

So this year parity has defied tradition on the road to the Final Four, no #1 or #2 seeds made the Final Four, and a #11 seed will be playing a #8 for the chance to play for the NCAA Championship.  Traditional powers have fallen to young upstarts and mid-majors.  Check back later in the week for previews of the Final Four.  And although my brackets have crumbled apart this year, it's great to see parity in college basketball!!