The Final Four is finally upon is, and it seems like I haven't seen a basketball game in ages! The heavy concentration of games the past two weeks made this week quite a drag, as no games were played Thursday or Friday. However, we're back in business as the Final Four begins tomorrow in Houston, Texas, starting with Virginia Commonwealth vs. Butler at 6:09 pm ET and followed shortly after by Kentucky vs Connecticut at 8:49 pm ET. Considering the way these teams finished the regular season, it's no surprise they made it this far.
Kentucky captured the SEC Conference Tournament, soundly defeating NCAA Tournament #2 seed Florida in the final. They defeated Ivy League champion Princeton, West Virginia, Big Ten champ and overall #1 seed Ohio State, and North Carolina on their road to the Final Four. It's amazing how John Calipari reloaded following the departure of five players to the NBA last year, including #1 pick John Wall.
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Kemba Walker and UConn are
two games removed from
their first NCAA title since 2004! |
UConn tore through the Big East tournament, winning five games in five days to capture the title, culminating with a win over Louisville in the final. They proceeded to defeat Bucknell, Cincinnati, Mountain West Champion San Diego State, and Arizona on their path to the Final Four. Although this team is led by Kemba Walker, role players have stepped up throughout the tournament.
VCU made the Colonial Athletic Association final, losing to Old Dominion in a close game. Since then, VCU defeated USC, Georgetown, Purdue, Florida St. and Big 12 Champion Kansas on the road to the Final Four. What's impressive about VCU is they keep winning with limited size, and a high percentage of three point field goals. By far the most volatile, but most dangerous team in the Final Four considering their seed.
Butler recovered from a slow start to the season to win the Horizon League Championship and received an automatic bid. Butler defeated CAA champ Old Dominion, Big East regular season champion Pittsburgh, Wisconsin, and SEC runner-up Florida to reach the Final Four. Butler's team just knows how to win, evidenced from their run to the NCAA Championship game last year and superb play down the stretch against Florida, Old Dominion, and Pittsburgh.
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Josn Harrellson has established himself as a
strong low-post presence, adding another
weapon to Kentucky's arsenal |
So who'll emerge victorious in these games? Connecticut and Kentucky played earlier this season in the Maui Classic, UConn winning 84-67. However, this Kentucky team is much more mature then they were back in November. They've won their past eleven games, and each game they've lost since the beginning of February has been by four points or less. This team is always in the game, and never gets blown out. Plus, they've already defended against Kemba Walker and should know to some extent what to expect from him. Brandon Knight is turning into a star distributing the ball and driving to the hoop, while Terrence Jones excels at scoring. Doron Lamb, Darius Miller, and DeAndre Liggins are threats from outside, while Josh Harrellson has steadily improved as a force in the paint. This team is not very deep, but is extremely talented and atheltic, staying out of foul trouble. Connecticut has finished the season exceptionally strong as well, winning its past nine ballgames. Shabazz Napier and Jeremy Lamb have stepped up their play down the stretch, increasing the options on this ballclub. UConn already has a win over Kentucky this year, which should give them confidence. Yet, this Kentucky team as far more experienced and battle-tested then that team in November. This game could go either way, as both teams finished the season strong, but I see Kentucky winning this game with some clutch play by Brandon Knight down the stretch.
Make it: Kentucky 76 - UConn 70
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Brad Stevens has established himself as one of
the nation's premier coaches, leading
Butler to consecutive Final Four's |
Butler and VCU both overcame mid-season adversity to successfully earn NCAA bids, Butler's through the Horizon League championship and VCU's through one of the last at-large bids. Think of how different this year's tournament may have been if not for the expansion from 65 to 68 teams, the Rams may not have been included. VCU didn't necessarily finish the season 'strong' yet made the final of their conference tournament, coincidentally losing to an Old Dominion team which Butler defeated in the 1st round of the NCAA tournament. However, the Rams are shooting 44 percent from three during the NCAA tournament, despite a poor rebounding margin and a mediocre defense. It seems that opposing squads haven't prepared for and haven't seen many teams like VCU whose play deviates so much from the status quo. However, Butler has had six days to prepare for VCU, and has athletic, on-ball defenders to handle the versatility of the VCU guards and forwards. Shelvin Mack and Ronald Nored are excellent defenders, and Butler plays an eight-deep rotation which provides flexibility if some players are in foul trouble. I just can't see Butler not preparing well for this game, and I don't know if VCU has an answer for Matt Howard down low. Despite their cinderalla run last year, Butler is determined to return to the ball again behind strong upper-class leadership and excellent coaching by Brad Stevens. Butler wins this game if it is close down the stretch, and I can truly only see VCU winning this game if they shoot a high percentage from downtown and force Butler to play a faster tempo.
Make it: Butler 66 - VCU 58
Check back Sunday for a preview of the NCAA title game, I'm expecting Kentucky to win at this point, but I'll have more of an idea following tonight's games!
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