Winning: Chad Ochocinco

I've decided to incorporate a new weekly post titled 'Winning.'  These posts will reflect on athletes and their Q-ratings.  So without further adieu, who better to start with then Mr. Chad Ochocinco!

Ochocinco has done an impressive job branding himself as much more than just a Wide Receiver for the Cincinnati Bengals.  Most recently, Ochocinco tried out for Sporting Kansas City of the MLS, formerly the Kansas City Wizards.  Suprisingly, Ochocinco was rewarded a spot on their reserve team, although designated as an 'honorary member of the team' by Manager Peter Vermes.  Considering reserve teams for most squads like these feature young players who are working towards making the first team, it's surprising they would offer a spot to a player with zero chance of making the actual roster.  However, this is where the Q-rating and celebrity status of an athlete like Ochocinco comes into play.  The publicity in this relationship is beneficial to both parties. 

Part-time football player, full time entrepreneur

Ochocinco gets media coverage for trying to make the jump to professional soccer, and  the MLS gets increased recognition through the courtship of a star athlete.  Michelle Kaufman of the Miami Herald sums it up by stating, "Ochocinco usually draws eye rolls with his publicity stunts, but this one makes sense from his end."  On point with the second part, but eye rolls? How about rolls of bills!  This guy reaps profits from people pointing and laughing at him!  Ochocinco ranked as the 5th most hated athlete in a study done by the Q-Scores company, yet why should people hate him?  His contemporaries on that list include mega-stars with a bad rap sheet such as Michael Vick, Tiger Woods, and Ben Roethlisberger. Ochocinco happens to market himself so well that ESPN and other sports networks and sites happen to catch them all.  He was recently rated the '2nd most powerful Twitter user' by researchers at Twitalyzer. Twitalyzer measures influence by how people shape the conversation on Twitter, in terms of being mentioned and having their own tweets re-tweeted, and not just how many followers a tweeter reaches. So Ochocinco, whose Twitter account features breaking stories from the Ochocinco News Network, is more influential on Twitter than celebrities like Lady Gaga and Justin Bieber, who have far more followers than he does.  Ochocinco was also featured on 'Dancing with the Stars' and his own reality tv show: Ochocinco: The Ultimate Catch on VH1.

Now that Ochocinco is such a figure in the social media community, what prompted his rise?  Touchdown celebrations!  I'll let you watch them as opposed to describing them myself, but the publicity he gains from them are substantial.  I'm interested in calculating the opportunity cost of the fines he receives for his on-field antics compared to the profits he gains from the increase in publicity.  The way the media covers him, they are basically encouraging him to disobey NFL rules because its beneficial to his bank account!

Plaxico Come Back-ico!

Remember when Plaxico Burress used to play football?  You might.  Remember when he discharged a personal weapon into his leg at a nightclub, and was subsequently arrested for it?  I am sure you do.  Rumor has it from his agent Drew Rosenhaus, that Plaxico Burress is in great shape and is excited to return to the field once he is released from prison on June 6th.  Supposedly he has been working out 5x a week and has high hopes for the upcoming season.

However, will Plaxico be the same player that he was in 2008, when he caught the game-winning touchdown in the Super Bowl but was arrested that November?  Michael Vick's comeback serves as inspiration and motivation for Burress.  Although Michael Vick is a more notorized public figure then Plaxico, everyone loves a comeback kid.  Take a look at all the press Michael Vick has received since his return.  He seemed to be the hot topic of the football world for the entire year, putting Peyton Manning and Tom Brady on the back burner.  Vick even has an endorsement deal from Unequal Technologies, a company which specializes in pads and protection for sports players.  Clearly Michael Vick has rebounded, and Plaxico can do the same by performing well on the field and keeping his cool off of it.

Such a comeback is by no means guaranteed though.  Michael Vick's first season back from prison was subpar and he barely got on the field.  Plaxico will take some time to adjust to the speed of the NFL again, and develop a good connection with his quarterback.  That quarterback will probably not be Eli Manning.  Although the Giants seem to want Burress back, in all honesty they don't have much need for him.  The New York Giants have a solid set of receivers with Steve Smith, Hakeem Nicks, and Mario Manningham.  There simply isn't room for Burress as these players are all young and will continue to develop, while Plaxico has already played the best football of his career.  The worst case scenario for Burress would be similar to that of Donte Stallworth.  Stallworth was suspended for the 2009 season for committing DUI manslaughter, and served most of his 30-day sentence once he plead guilty.  Following his reinstatement for the 2010 season, he proceeded to catch only two passes as a Baltimore Raven in 2010.  Stallworth clearly has not regained his form since his arrest, but if reports are true, that will not be the case with Plaxico.

So, whichever team it may be, rumor has it the Pittsburgh Steelers would welcome Burress, bring Plaxico Back-ico to the NFL!  Who cares if about his stupidity back in 2008?  Plaxico Burress seems motivated to rejuvinate his career and redefine his life, so I hope to see him back on the football field in 2011 (assuming there is no lockout).  Besides, then I can wear his jersey again :)

Reflection on the AFC and NFC Championship Games and a Super Bowl XLV prediction!

The Pittsburgh Steelers. Six Super Bowl Victories. A tradition of winning quarterbacks: Terry Bradshaw, Ben Roethlisberger.  A tradition of winning coaches: Chuck Noll, Bill Cowher, Mike Tomlin.  A tradition of the strongest defenses and defensive players in all of football, from Mean Joe Greene to Troy Polamalu and James Harrison.  The Steelers absolutely dominated the first half of this football game, carrying over the way they played in the second half of the Baltimore game last week.  Up 24-3 at halftime following touchdown runs by Roethlisberger and Rashard Mendenhall and a fumble recovery touchdown return by William Gay, the Steelers seemed untouchable and unphasable. However, the Jets managed to mount a comeback in the second half and almost pulled off an upset that would have seemed impossible in the first half.   Santonio Holmes continued his playoff heroics, catching a 45 yard touchdown pass at the beginning of the third quarter, and Jerricho Cotchery caught a pass to bring the score to 24-19 with three minutes left.  Pittsburgh was able to run out the clock though, ending a game which truly was a tale of two halfs.  Can Pittsburgh put two strong halfs together in the Superbowl two weeks from now? We will see, as they will need it to defeat a hot Green Bay Packers team.

The Green Bay Packers.  Traditionally one of the strongest franchises in NFL history and winners of three Super Bowls, the Pack is back!!  Aaron Rodgers has looked the part of the best quarterback in the NFL throughout the playoffs.  His connection with Greg Jennings forms arguably the top QB-WR combo in the NFL, and his rapport with his other receivers allows him to spread the ball around to many targets.  Rodgers didn't have his best stat line against the Bears Sunday, but his performance was admirable, as he made so exceptional throws outside the pocket following some quick moves to avoid pass rushers.  The Packers were not very effective running the ball against the Bears strong front seven, but the Bears were no better against the Packers defense.  Both defenses were stout, but Aaron Rodgers outplayed the trio of Bears quarterbacks to lead Green Bay to victory. 

Can this Packers team move the ball against the best defense in football next week? It remains to be seen! The Steelers defense has been strong, but not dominant.  Both these defenses are capable of forcing a lot of turnovers, as Green Bay picked of Chicago quarterbacks three times yesterday, and both teams scored a defensive touchdown.  I believe that the Pittsburgh Steelers defense is more proven and should be better prepared for this Super Bowl XLV.  Another advantage the Steelers have is the running game, Rashard Mendenhall runs hard and has great vision.  If the Packers had issues moving the ball against the Bears, the Steelers are even stronger up front and play the pass extremely well with Troy Polamalu in the secondary.  Don't expect James Starks, Brandon Jackson, and John Kuhn to get much going against the Steelers run defense.  In fact, I expect Aaron Rodgers to be the Packers top rusher in the Super Bowl. Damn is he mobile! 

Prediction for this game?  I say the Packers cinderella run continues, even though they seem a little bit overmatched.  Marilynn tends to have a better grasp then I do with who will win games like this, so without further adieu....

Packers 27 - Steelers 24

Final Reflection on Patriots-Jets

Oh how the mighty have fallen.  First the #1 seeded Falcons succumbed to the #6 seeded Packers, and now the #6 seeded Jets defeated the powerful New England Patriots, who had looked unstoppable the past two months, specifically the last time they played these same Jets.  In this AFC East showdown, the game ball goes to the New York Jets defense.  Darrelle Revis had great coverage on Deion Branch all night, knocking a few balls loose and disrupting a few passes.  Antonio Cromarite had a key onside kick return inside the New England 20, which all but sealed the outcome.  David Harris had, in my opinion, the most important play of the game, an interception which stopped a New England drive which seemed destined for the endzone.  Nevermind the fact that Nick Folk barely missed a field goal three plays later, missing an opportunity to score three points is much better than being in the whole seven points.  An early lead and strong defense in the first half allowed the Jets to control the clock and run the ball with LaDanian Tomlinson and Shonn Greene, who combined had 27 carries for 119 yards and a touchdown (LT also caught a touchdown). 

Due to their excellent coverage in the secondary, the Jets were able to put pressure on Brady all night, sacking him five times and hitting him seven times.  As composed as Tom Brady is in the pocket and although he had a strong performance today, he looked flustered and uncomfortable for most of the afternoon.  The Patriots went 5-14 on third down, mostly because of excellent coverage in the secondary. 

Several concluding thoughts on this slugfest: (1) Props to Mark Sanchez for a solid game and no mistakes.  Just one or two bad decisions by Sanchez could have swung the game in the Patriots favor, but Sanchez was calm and collected and faced little pressure from the Patriots most of the game.  Certainly it helps when you sport D'Brickshaw Ferguson and Nick Mangold on your offensive line, but Sanchez played a very smart football game.  (2)  Why did Belicheck go for that fake punt?  The risk was not worth the reward on the fake punt attempted by the Patriots.  Why risk giving the Jets the ball with less than half the field to score when the Patriots would have needed at least twenty more yards to kick a field goal, no guarantee against a strong Jets defense?  (3)  Props to Rex Ryan for getting his team fired up for this game.  The combination of the trash talk and the humiliation of the 45-3 loss last time the Jets visited Gillete Stadium must have instilled a fire in their team.

Update on Patriots-Jets: Halftime reflection

Looks like the boys from New York are backing up all the trash talk from earlier in the week as the Jets are up 14-3 on the Patriots at halftime.  In terms of yardage this has been a pretty even ballgame, the Jets have 157 total yards to 127 for the Patriots.  However, a key interception by Tom Brady in Jets territory stalled a Patriots drive, and a fumbled fake punt led to a Jets touchdown to Braylon Edwards with less then a minute left in the first half.  As much as I love Braylon and David Harris, I can't say I'm rooting for them to continue with their antics as it would hurt to see the Patriots lose this game. 

Looking at Tom Brady's stats, he is 10/17 for 99 yards and an interception.  Lets see if he can get the ball a bit more downfield.  The Jets are pretty talented in the secondary with Darrel Revis, Antonio Cromarite, and Dwight Lowery back there playing defense, but if anyone can slice this secondary up it is Brady.  I am looking forward to a strong second-half showing from Brady and the Pats that hopefully will lead them to victory!

Playoffs! Take 2!

Thanks to those who read yesterday's blog predicting who would win today's football games between Baltimore and Pittsburgh, and Atlanta and Green Bay.  At this time Baltimore is up 21-7 at haltime, who would have guessed that?  Baltimore has not scored 21 points in its last five meetings with Pittsburgh, yet is has 21 at halftime.  Looks like my 24-13 prediction in favor of Pittsburgh will not work out, but Pittsburgh could mount a comeback to win this game.  Never count Ben Roethlisberger out in the playoffs.  He is a proven winner.

Anyways, today I focus on the New England Patriots vs New York Jets and Seattle Seahawks vs Chicago Bears games.  The Patriots enter this game sporting an eight game winning streak, inculding a 45-3 stomping of the Jets on December 6th.  The Jets are fresh off a thrilling 17-16 victory over the Indianapolis Colts, yet lost three of their last five regular season games, including a 38-34 loss at Chicago, 10-6 loss at home to Miami, and the aformentioned loss to the Patriots.   They did pick up a big win @ the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 15, so maybe that win coupled with last weeks can motivate the Jets to put their best foot, sorry Rex, forward against the Patriots tomorrow.  I looked at quarterbacks in yesterday's game (ironic that Joe Flacco threw a pick right as I wrote this), so today I'll look at defense as a predictor of who will win these games, starting with the Jets and their games against the Patriots and in the playoffs over the past two years.

Team Opp  Year  YA  Int FF FR Sk PA  W/L
NY Jets    Patriots    2009       299      1        0       0      0       9          W
NY Jets @Patriots    2009       410      0        2       1      2      31          L
NY Jets    Bengals    2009       281      1        2       1      3      14         W
NY Jets @Chargers 2009       344      2        2       0      2      14         W
NY Jets @Colts       2009       461      0        2       1      2      30         L
NY Jets    Patriots    2010       291      2        1       1      1      14         W
NY Jets  @Patriots  2010       405      0        0       0       3     45         L
NY Jets  @Colts     2010       312      0        0        0      1      16         W

Patriots   @Jets        2009       254      0        2       0       2      16         L
Patriots       Jets        2009       226      4        1       1       2      14         W
Patriots      Ravens    2009       268      1        1       1      0       33         L
Patriots   @Jets        2010       336      0         0       0      3      28         L
Patriots       Jets        2010       301      3        1       0       1      3           W

A glaring statistic from this data is the difference between the Jets defensive performance at home and at the Patriots.  In both games at the Patriots the past two years, the Jets have allowed over 400 yards and given up at least thirty points.  In two losses to the Jets in 2009 and 2010, the points the Patriots gave up was 28.  One can expect this game to be closer than last months encounter, but the Jets don't have an answer for the Patriots offense on the road.

Make it:  Patriots 34   Jets 17

Like the Patriots and Jets, the Seahawks and Bears have already played this season, resulting in a 23-20 for the Seahawks @ Soldier Field.  Is this Week 6 matchup indicative of how both these teams are playing today? No.  Should it give Seattle even more confidence coming off its win against the New Orleans Saints? Yes.  However, playing in Chicago is totally different then in Seattle.  Lets take a look at Matt Hasselbeck's performance in away playoff games and Chicago's defense in home playoff games.

Year   Opponent   Passing  Yards  TD/INT  W/L
2004    Green Bay   25-45      305      0 / 1        L
2007     Chicago      18-33      195      1 / 1        L
2008    Green Bay   19-33      194      1 / 0        L

Matt Hasselbeck has never won a playoff football game on the road, and recently he has been ineffective to the tune of less than 200 passing yards in his past two road playoff starts.  Can the magic from last week continue against a strong Bears defense?  Lets take a look at the Bears defense at home in their last few trips to the playoffs.

Year   Opponent  YA   Int  FF  FR  Sk  PA  W/L
2006     Seattle      306   1     0     0     3    24    W
2006       NO        375    1     4     3     3    14   W
2005       Car         434   1     3     0     1    29    L
2002       PHI        336    1     0     0     2    33    L

These statistics show that the Bears defense gives up a lot of yards against good football teams, but how relevant are these statistics to this year's Chicago team?  Not much.  The 2010 Bears ranked 9th in total defense, allowing 314 yards/game.  They forced 23 fumbles and recovered 14, and intercepted 21 passes.  I think the Bears D gets it done and overcomes a few Jay Cutler turnovers in what should be another tight game.

Make it: Bears 17   Seahawks 13