Oklahoma City vs. Memphis
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| Z-Bo carried the Grizzlies to a surprising upset over the top seeded Spurs |
The Thunder defeated Denver in convincing fashion 4-1, with Kevin Durant taking over games at will. He averaged 32.4 ppg against the Nuggets and got to the free throw line an average of 11.4 times per game. More importantly, Durant averaged 30.5 ppg and 8.3 rpg against the Grizzlies this year, yet the Thunder were only 1-3 against them during the regular season. Will this trend continue? I doubt it. Memphis was 2-1 against the Thunder with Rudy Gay, and without him they lack a threat at the 3 on offense that can also force Durant into playing stronger on defense and tiring him. Tony Allen and Shane Battier are adequate at defending Durant, but neither is capable of shutting him down. Durant will get his points, although he may not shoot as well as he did in the Denver series. If the Grizzlies want to win this series, they will need a strong offensive performance from Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol. These two players should make for some intriguing matchups with Kendrick Perkins and Serge Ibaka, and Nick Collison and Nazr Mohammed are capable fill-ins if the starters run into foul trouble. At this point in time, stopping Zach Randolph seems pretty difficult. He looked real impressive in the Spurs series and should continue to play well against OKC, as he averages 26.5 ppg, 13.0 rpg, and shot .580% from the field against OKC this year. Considering Randolph's success seems like a given, Marc Gasol will have to perform well. The matchup, that in my opinion, sways the series in OKC's favor, is Russell Westbrook against Mike Conley Jr. Westbrook is an elite point guard and has put up 24.5 ppg and 9.0 apg against the Grizzlies this season. Conley has been much less effective, to the tune of 13.0 ppg, 6.5 apg, and a dismal field goal percentage of .370%. I just don't think Conley is the type of player that can carry a team deep into the playoffs, as point guard play and experience is of utmost importance in the playoffs.
Make it: Thunder in 6
L.A. Lakers vs. Dallas Mavericks
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| Kobe looks to lead the Lakers past the Mavs on their way to a third straight championship |
The Lakers looked pretty shaky at times against the New Orleans Hornets, but were able to right the ship and defeated the Hornets handily in Games 5 and 6 to put their fears to rest. The Mavericks slipped up a bit against the Trail Blazers, letting a double digit lead evaporate in the fourth quarter to lose Game 4, but were able to close out their series at Portland with a dominating performance by Dirk Nowitzki. The Lakers and Mavericks played three times this season, with the Lakers winning two of the three, and most notably the third game at home by 28 points. Has this Lakers team played like two-time champions this season? No. Can they repeat? Possibly. Will they win this series? Definitely. Andrew Bynum has returned to form and played spectacular down the stretch to end the regular season. Although his health is a bit iffy at this point I still think he can have a profound impact in this series. The Mavericks don't have the size to compete with the Lakers down low, as they can't play Dirk on either Gasol or Bynum. However, what the Mavericks do have in their favor is superior point guard play and shooting from the outside. Jason Kidd provides strong point guard play compared to Derek Fisher, while the outside shooting of Jason Terry and Peja Stojakovic trumps that of Kobe, Ron Artest, and Matt Barnes and Shannon Brown if they're in the game. As great as the Mavericks can shoot at times, they can't compete with the Lakers down low and don't have any strong defenders to guard Kobe.
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