NCAA Title Game Prediction!

Butler-UConn, Monday April 4th @ 9:23 pm ET

Hey guys, hope you had a chance to read my last blog regarding predictions for Saturday's games.  If not, I insist you check it out.  My prediction was extremely accurate for the VCU-Butler game, as Butler won by eight points in a close game down the stretch, just as I predicted. Now before I start stroking my ego too much, let me say I was pretty far off on the Kentucky-UConn game.  Yes, Kentucky looked liked the better team throughout the game. Yes, Kentucky did go 4-12 from the free throw line. Yes, Kentucky missed too many WIDE OPEN three's. Yet, UConn won and has a shot at their first NCAA title since 2004. 

And so we reach the NCAA Title game: Butler was expected to have a big season, and underachieved up until March. UConn was expected to be a middling-Big East team, and they were, despite the fact they went undefeated in non-conference play and won every close game down the stretch.  The Huskies, and specifically Kemba Walker, seem to 'get up' for tournament-style play and their freshman players have really developed throughout the year.  One thing both these teams have in common: winning the close games.  Lets take a look at each of these team's performances in their last 10 games decided by 5 points or less, and if a game goes into overtime it counts as 5 or less regardless of the final discrepancy:

  Date      Opponent         Score       Result    Record
                               Connecticut Huskies
    4/2         Kentucky        56-55          W            1-0
    3/26       Arizona           65-63          W            2-0
    3/12      Louisville         69-66          W            3-0
    3/11       Syracuse         76-71           W           4-0
    3/10      Pittsburgh       76-74           W           5-0
    3/5        Notre Dame     67-70           L            5-1
    2/24      Marquette      67-74 (OT)          L            5-2
    2/5        Seton Hall        61-59          W           6-2
    1/29      Louisville        78-79 (2OT)     L             6-3
    1/17      Villanova         61-59           W           7-3


                                                       Butler Bulldogs
    3/26       Florida           74-71 (OT)      W            1-0
    3/19      Pittsburgh       71-70           W            2-0
    3/17     Old Dominion  60-58           W             3-0
    2/15      Wisc- GB         64-62           W            4-0
    2/3     Youngstown St   60-62           L             4-1
    1/29     Valparaiso       79-85 (OT)       L             4-2
    1/23    Wisc - Milw       80-86 (OT)      L             4-3
    1/16     Wright St          64-69           L             4-4   
    1/9     Youngstown St    84-79          W            5-4
    12/23    Florida St         67-64          W            6-4

Clearly both these teams have played well in tight games down the strech, despite some struggles during conference play, and they wouldn't be here today without knowing how to win close games.  It seems that Connecticut has more experience playing in tight games, due to the competitive nature of their conference, but Butler has won three NCAA tournament games in the final seconds or in OT, led by Matt Howard's strong, instinctual efforts.  Butler and UConn match up pretty well against each other, as Alex Oriakhi and Charles Okwandu should have trouble with Matt Howard down low, while a combination of Ronald Nored, Khyle Marshall, and maybe even Shelvin Mack will have difficulties defending Kemba Walker.  In my opinion, I know what to expect from Butler: a solid, no nonsense game.  They are well coached and have been here before, so they'll be ready to play.  UConn's freshmen are the X-Factor's for this game.  If Shabazz Napier can keep defending at a high level, distribute well, and avoid poor shots, UConn's level of play will really rise.  If Jeremy Lamb continues to assume the level of play he has established throughout the tournament, UConn will be able to impose a more athletic level of play upon Butler.  Can Kemba and his freshman partners in crime deny Butler the goal they almost attained last year?  I don't think so.

Make it: Butler 64 - UConn 59

Best of luck to both teams in what has been an NCAA tournament filled with surprises!

NCAA Tournament Reflections Thus Far: Parity defies Tradition

This past week I had the pleasure of returning to Williamston/Okemos/East Lansing for my spring break.  When I returned home from the airport, I made my way to my room upstairs.  An NCAA tourney bracket I had filled out in 2006 remained on my bulletin board!  It had UConn and Duke playing in the final with UConn winning the whole tournament.  If you were unaware, this team boasted future NBA players Rudy Gay, Jeff Adrien, Hilton Armstrong, Marcus Williams, Josh Boone, and AJ Price.  After perusing through the bracket, I chuckled at how poorly I had predicted the Final Four.  I had George Mason losing to Michigan St in the 1st round and Florida losing to Ohio St in the Sweet 16; those teams ended up meeting in the Final Four!  The only team I correctly predicted to make the Final Four was UCLA.  Little did I know that that bracket would closely resemble this year's...

Each year I ponder whether I should try to create an algorithm to predict the winner of the NCAA tournament.  In the past I've been able to predict the winning team about 50% of the time.  Since I started intensely following college basketball in 2003, I've predicted the winner correctly with UConn in 2004, UNC in 2005, Florida, in 2007, Kansas in 2008, and UNC in 2009.  I feel like two characteristics stick out in teams that win the NCAA tourney.  These may seem obvious, but nonetheless are important:

(1) Many future NBA players on the team:

Joakim Noah and co. powered Florida
to two NCAA titles.

Florida's whole starting five from the 2006-2007 championship teams made the NBA: Corey Brewer, Joakim Noah, Al Horford, Taureen Grean and Lee Humphrey (briefly), and Maurice Speights off the bench.

Kansas's core from the 2008 championship team: Darrell Arthur, Cole Aldrich, Mario Chalmers, Brandon Rush, Sherron Collins, and Darnell Jackson all made it into the NBA.

(2) Strong inside presence:
UConn's 2004 championship team:
Emeka Okafor - 6'9
Hilton Armstrong - 6'10
Josh Boone - 6'10
Charlie Villanueva - 6'10

UNC's 2005 championship team:
Jawad Williams - 6'9
Marvin Williams - 6'9
Damian Grant - 6'11
Sean May - 6'9

Kyle Singler and a star-studded Duke
squad couldn't make it past
the Sweet 16

This year I filled out four brackets, and based my winner's on both these categories.  Therefore, I had Ohio St winning in one of my brackets, as they have a strong inside presence with Jared Sullinger and Dallas Lauderdale, as well as future pro prospects on the wings including Jon Diebler, William Buford and David Lighty in addition to Sullinger.  I also had Duke winning in two of my brackets, as Nolan Smith, Kyle Singler, Seth Curry, Kyrie Irving, and Andre Dawkins are arguably pro prospects and the Plumlee brothers are serviceable in the low post.  In another bracket I had Kansas winning, as Markieff and Marcus Morris are NBA-caliber forwards, and Josh Selby and Tyshawn Taylor are pro prospects as well.  Clearly none of these teams panned out.  But do Butler, VCU, UConn and Kentucky/UNC defy my formula?

VCU definitely defies the formula for a tournament winning team.  This team shoots an abundance of three-pointers, starts three guards 6-6 or shorter, and lacks a scoring big.  VCU shot 12-25 from beyond the arc to beat Kansas today, while playing four guards for most of the game. 

Butler sports a tough big and NBA prospect with Matt Howard, along with future NBA player Shelden Mack.  Although this team may come across is a pretty average team, they are fundamentally strong, and have played together for a long time as the top players on the team are all juniors and seniors.  This team just flat out knows how to win, and has a girth of tournament experience with most its players returning from last year's NCAA Title game run. 

Can Brandon Knight lead a young
but talented Kentucky team to
the NCAA title?

Kentucky and UNC are packed with future pro's.  It's no surprise that these two teams are competing for a birth in the Final Four, as there is an impeccable amount of talent on the court in this game.  Carolina has a strong inside presence with John Henson and Tyler Zeller, and Harrison Barnes will be a star at the next level.  Kentucky sports Brandon Knight, Terrence Jones, Darius Miller, and DeAndre Liggins, who should translate to the next level.  The winner of this game should, in my opinion, win the NCAA title unless...

...UConn can defeat the winner of this game.  Kemba Walker is a superstar, and freshman Jeremy Lamb, Tyler Olander, and Shabazz Napier are all potential NBA prospects, in addition to sophomore Alex Oriakhi.  This team is young, but has been riding Kemba Walker to the Final Four. 
We will see how far Kemba can take them, maybe all the way to the title.

So this year parity has defied tradition on the road to the Final Four, no #1 or #2 seeds made the Final Four, and a #11 seed will be playing a #8 for the chance to play for the NCAA Championship.  Traditional powers have fallen to young upstarts and mid-majors.  Check back later in the week for previews of the Final Four.  And although my brackets have crumbled apart this year, it's great to see parity in college basketball!!

Bubble Results: A Critique

The NCAA tournament never comes and goes without complaints, and Selection Sunday is the day where 'Bubble Teams' can complain about the injustices they experienced by failing to make the tournament.  For most of these teams, winning one more game or playing a slightly tougher schedule would have made the difference between making the tournament and heading to the NIT.  A perennial member of this 'Bubble Team' category is Seth Greenberg's Virginia Tech Hokies, who have been snubbed of a NCAA birth the past two years.  Along with them, several other teams feel like they were 'snubbed' from the NCAA tourney.  Lets take a look at what I believe to be three teams that don't deserve a birth, and three teams that should be in the tournament:

Should Be Out:

The Trojans found a way to make it back
to the NCAA tournament!

USC Trojans - 19-14, 10-8 Pac Ten.   This USC team played an interesting non-conference schedule, losing to some very poor teams and beating some strong ones.  Losses to Rider, Bradley, and TCU are inexcusable, and losing at home to Oregon in conference play was a bad loss as well.  However, the Trojans did beat Texas and Tennessee.  Should those non-conference wins have been sufficient to put a team with an RPI of 67 into the tournament? Probably not, considering how soft the Pac-Ten is as a conference.  USC should be taking its 19-14 record to the NIT this week.

Great jerseys, but they lack
a solid non-conference resume

Marquette - 20-14, 9-9 Big East.  The Golden Eagles were horrible in their non-conference schedule, and must have snuck into the tournament by winning two games in the Big East tournament.  Marquette did not defeat one Top-50 opponent in non-conference play, and it's only key road win against a strong team was at Connecticut.  I feel like they received this birth based on reputation and past performance, as Marquette generally wins a game or two in the tournament.  Teams like Colorado and Virginia Tech beat better teams and would have been more competitive then this Marquette squad.

Florida St - 21-10, 11-5 ACC.  Although the Seminoles finished with a strong record in ACC play, its worth pointing out that they only have two wins against tournament teams this season, at home to Duke and to Clemson.  Florida St has an RPI of 55, which one would think is good enough to land them a spot in the tournament, but their non-conference schedule was weak in that they didn't beat any tournament teams.  Losing three of it's last five games, including losses to Maryland and Virginia Tech shows that the Seminoles are trending downward and should disappoint in the NCAA tournament.


Should Be In:
Saint Mary's Gaels - 23-8, 11-3 West Coast Conference. Saint Mary's assembled a strong record in conference play and built a RPI of 48.  This team also defeated a Top-25 team in St. Johns, one more top-25 team then either Michigan or Clemson defeated all season.  Although the SOS was 105, the RPI says it all that Saint Mary's would have been a decent tournament team. Their performance in the tournament last year proves that they can make some noise in the NCAA tournament, and it's disappointing to see them headed to the NIT this year.

Colorado Buffaloes - 20-13, 8-8 Big 12 Conference.  Colorado ammased wins against Kansas St, three times, and Texas.  They also finished .500 in conference play.  A .500 record in-conference was enough to get Michigan, Michigan St, Illinois, and Penn St into the tournament, so why not a Colorado team with more wins against the Top-25 then any one of those teams?  Yes the Buffaloes did play a weak non-conference schedule and had a less-then-ideal RPI, but those wins had to count for something.  Guess they weren't enough...



Tommy Amaker's Crimson should de dancing,
 but instead will be playing in the NIT


Harvard Crimson - 23-6, 12-2 Ivy League.  Harvard ammased a strong resume this season, with going undefeated at home, and only losing one game to a non-NCAA tourney team (rival Yale).  Tommy Amaker's club defeated Colorado and Princeton, as well as a Boston College team that barely missed out on the tournament.  With an RPI of 35, it's hard to swallow how the Tigers didn't make the tourney. However, their SOS of 140 was a glaring weakness which the Selection Committee must have focused heavily on.

Hope you are filling out your bracket(s) as the tournament begins tomorrow.  Check back soon for previews of each region and the first weekend of games!

Bubble Watch: Big Ten

Hey guys, back it at after a two-week hiatus!  Even though I was away, college basketball never left.  It's almost time for March Madness baby!!  Today I will be looking at the Big Ten conference, as it has four teams that finished with mediocre conference records that are considered 'on the bubble' by college basketball analysts for the upcoming NCAA Tournament.  In my opinion, these teams include: Michigan St, Michigan, Penn St, and Illinois.  One month ago, Illinois was expected to make the tournament while the other three teams were struggling.  However, late season pushes by the Spartans, Wolverines, and Nittany Lions have them back into the NCAA Tournament picture.  Below is a table citing the record, conference record, RPI, and SOS of these teams:



TEAM         Record    (Big10)    RPI     SOS  

Michigan St   19-14         9-9          40          9

Michigan       20-13         9-9          50          17

Penn St         19-13         9-9          43          5

Illinois           19-13         9-9          44         16



Kalin Lucas revived the
Spartans against Purdue



Michigan St - Considered a bubble team entering the Big Ten Tournament, the Spartans proceeded to defeat Iowa and then shocked Purdue.  Although the record isn't very impressive, wins vs. Pac Ten Champion Washington, @ Oakland, vs. Wisconsin, vs. Penn St, and vs. Purdue are wins against tournament teams.  These wins and a strong reputation should be enough to propel Michigan State into the tournament.

Expected seed: #9 seed

Michigan - considering the Wolverines began Big Ten play with a 1-6 record and they lost their top two players from last season, no one expected Michigan to finish the season like they did.  Michigan picked up key wins vs and @ Michigan St, @ Clemson, vs. and @ Penn St, vs. Oakland, and vs. Harvard (who in my opinion should make the NCAA tourney as an at large).  Although the Wolverines have not defeated any top-25 teams, they lost to Kansas in OT and to Syracuse by only three and closed the season with statement wins against Michigan St and Illinois.  Michigan plays most teams tough, and should earn a low seed in the NCAA tournament.

Expected seed: #10 seed

Talor Battle led Penn St
to victories over
Wisconsin and MSU,
revitalizing their NCAA
tourney resume.

Penn St - like Michigan, Penn St was out of the NCAA tourney picture for a while but resurfaced with several strong wins in the Big Ten tournament.  If Penn St beats Ohio St tomorrow afternoon, they will be an automatic qualifier, but assuming they don't I still think they can make it in.  Two wins against both Michigan St and Wisconsin are Penn St.'s most valuable assets, as they played a pretty weak non-conference schedule.  Fortunately for them, the bubble is pretty weak this year and the committee should take note of Penn St winning seven of their last nine games.

Expected seed: #11 seed

Illinois - Illinois is the odd-man out of this group.  This team had high expectations at the beginning of the season, but has struggled down the stretch.  Illinois lost to Michigan in it's only game of the Big Ten tournament, and lost four of it's last six games.  However, Illinois won vs. UNC, vs. Oakland, vs. Wisconsin, vs Michigan St, and vs Michigan.  These are all quality wins against tournament teams, but will the selection committee forget about these considering many of them were early in the season?  Although most analysts are skeptical toward Illinois, I think they will make it in.       Expected seed: # 11 seed

Cheer up Spartan Fans!

Ranked #2 in the nation to begin the season, Michigan State's season has been disappointing, disappointing being an understatement.  Currently sporting a 14-11 overall record, and a 6-7 clip in Big Ten play, the Spartans have slipped into unfamiliar territory and are in danger of missing the NCAA tournament.  Losses to traditional Big Ten bottom-feeders such as Michigan and Iowa were unacceptable, but besides that the Spartans have played a very strong schedule this year.  Lets take a look at the teams Michigan State has lost to this season and their rankings:

Michigan State Spartans
14-11 (6-7) RPI = 46  SOS = 5

   Date        Opponent         Score         Ranking  
11/23          UConn            70-67         #13
12/1             Duke              84-79         #5
12/7           Syracuse           72-58        #17
12/22           Texas             67-55         #3
1/8              Penn St.           66-62        N/R
1/18             Illinois             71-62         N/R
1/22             Purdue            86-76        #11
1/27            Michigan          61-57        N/R
2/2                Iowa              72-52        N/R
2/6              Wisconsin        82-56        #10
2/15            Ohio St            71-61        #2

Clearly Michigan State has played against many tough opponents, and can flaunt a win against #10 Wisconsin to the NCAA tourney committee as a quality win.  In most years, a team with a 14-11 record would have little chance to make the NCAA tournament, however, this year the bubble is very weak.  The addition of three more teams to the tournament is a boon to teams looking for at large bids.  These bids seem to be up for grabs for middle-feeders of the top conferences like the Big Ten, Big East, Big 12, ACC.  Play-in games now exist for seeds other then #16, a huge bonus for Michigan State.  The remaining schedule for the Spartans is shown below, along with my predictions for each game:

Date    Opponent   W/L
2/19    vs. Illinois     W  - The Illini are reeling and Demetri McCamey is struggling, Spartans win this one
2/22   @ Minnesota L  -  A balanced Gophers team exacts revenge from Decembers matchup @ the Bres
2/27    vs. Purdue    L - State cant handle an elite Purdue team looking to solidify a strong NCAA seed
3/2      vs. Iowa       W - Spartans crush an Iowa team that they played their worst game of the year against
3/5     @ Michigan  W  - State beats a tough Michigan team on the road to give it hope for an NCAA tournament birth.

Final Record: 17-13 (8-8)

An NCAA birth will hinge on Michigan State's success in the Big Ten Tournament.  If Michigan St can make it to the final of the Big Ten Tournament, I am certain they will lock up an NCAA birth. Semifinals? Most likely?  Quarterfinals? Don't count on it.  However, this Michigan State team seems to have the resolve to win when it matters most, as State has performed quite well in it's overtime games earlier this season.  Expect to see Kalin Lucas and the Spartans making noise in the month of March again this year, even if it won't be at the Final Four like many expected.