NCAA Tournament Reflections Thus Far: Parity defies Tradition

This past week I had the pleasure of returning to Williamston/Okemos/East Lansing for my spring break.  When I returned home from the airport, I made my way to my room upstairs.  An NCAA tourney bracket I had filled out in 2006 remained on my bulletin board!  It had UConn and Duke playing in the final with UConn winning the whole tournament.  If you were unaware, this team boasted future NBA players Rudy Gay, Jeff Adrien, Hilton Armstrong, Marcus Williams, Josh Boone, and AJ Price.  After perusing through the bracket, I chuckled at how poorly I had predicted the Final Four.  I had George Mason losing to Michigan St in the 1st round and Florida losing to Ohio St in the Sweet 16; those teams ended up meeting in the Final Four!  The only team I correctly predicted to make the Final Four was UCLA.  Little did I know that that bracket would closely resemble this year's...

Each year I ponder whether I should try to create an algorithm to predict the winner of the NCAA tournament.  In the past I've been able to predict the winning team about 50% of the time.  Since I started intensely following college basketball in 2003, I've predicted the winner correctly with UConn in 2004, UNC in 2005, Florida, in 2007, Kansas in 2008, and UNC in 2009.  I feel like two characteristics stick out in teams that win the NCAA tourney.  These may seem obvious, but nonetheless are important:

(1) Many future NBA players on the team:

Joakim Noah and co. powered Florida
to two NCAA titles.

Florida's whole starting five from the 2006-2007 championship teams made the NBA: Corey Brewer, Joakim Noah, Al Horford, Taureen Grean and Lee Humphrey (briefly), and Maurice Speights off the bench.

Kansas's core from the 2008 championship team: Darrell Arthur, Cole Aldrich, Mario Chalmers, Brandon Rush, Sherron Collins, and Darnell Jackson all made it into the NBA.

(2) Strong inside presence:
UConn's 2004 championship team:
Emeka Okafor - 6'9
Hilton Armstrong - 6'10
Josh Boone - 6'10
Charlie Villanueva - 6'10

UNC's 2005 championship team:
Jawad Williams - 6'9
Marvin Williams - 6'9
Damian Grant - 6'11
Sean May - 6'9

Kyle Singler and a star-studded Duke
squad couldn't make it past
the Sweet 16

This year I filled out four brackets, and based my winner's on both these categories.  Therefore, I had Ohio St winning in one of my brackets, as they have a strong inside presence with Jared Sullinger and Dallas Lauderdale, as well as future pro prospects on the wings including Jon Diebler, William Buford and David Lighty in addition to Sullinger.  I also had Duke winning in two of my brackets, as Nolan Smith, Kyle Singler, Seth Curry, Kyrie Irving, and Andre Dawkins are arguably pro prospects and the Plumlee brothers are serviceable in the low post.  In another bracket I had Kansas winning, as Markieff and Marcus Morris are NBA-caliber forwards, and Josh Selby and Tyshawn Taylor are pro prospects as well.  Clearly none of these teams panned out.  But do Butler, VCU, UConn and Kentucky/UNC defy my formula?

VCU definitely defies the formula for a tournament winning team.  This team shoots an abundance of three-pointers, starts three guards 6-6 or shorter, and lacks a scoring big.  VCU shot 12-25 from beyond the arc to beat Kansas today, while playing four guards for most of the game. 

Butler sports a tough big and NBA prospect with Matt Howard, along with future NBA player Shelden Mack.  Although this team may come across is a pretty average team, they are fundamentally strong, and have played together for a long time as the top players on the team are all juniors and seniors.  This team just flat out knows how to win, and has a girth of tournament experience with most its players returning from last year's NCAA Title game run. 

Can Brandon Knight lead a young
but talented Kentucky team to
the NCAA title?

Kentucky and UNC are packed with future pro's.  It's no surprise that these two teams are competing for a birth in the Final Four, as there is an impeccable amount of talent on the court in this game.  Carolina has a strong inside presence with John Henson and Tyler Zeller, and Harrison Barnes will be a star at the next level.  Kentucky sports Brandon Knight, Terrence Jones, Darius Miller, and DeAndre Liggins, who should translate to the next level.  The winner of this game should, in my opinion, win the NCAA title unless...

...UConn can defeat the winner of this game.  Kemba Walker is a superstar, and freshman Jeremy Lamb, Tyler Olander, and Shabazz Napier are all potential NBA prospects, in addition to sophomore Alex Oriakhi.  This team is young, but has been riding Kemba Walker to the Final Four. 
We will see how far Kemba can take them, maybe all the way to the title.

So this year parity has defied tradition on the road to the Final Four, no #1 or #2 seeds made the Final Four, and a #11 seed will be playing a #8 for the chance to play for the NCAA Championship.  Traditional powers have fallen to young upstarts and mid-majors.  Check back later in the week for previews of the Final Four.  And although my brackets have crumbled apart this year, it's great to see parity in college basketball!!

Who can win it all? Eight teams that could win the NCAA tournament

Like most sports fans at this time of year, I've caught college basketball fever.  The NBA and NHL are at somewhat of a lull at this time of year, as the playoffs do not start for another month or so, and the MLB season is just around the corner, so naturally March Madness is something to get excited about!  It's almost time to start filling out brackets and throwing money into NCAA pools with your friends, family, and co-workers.  That also means it's almost time to start lamenting about how your sister, girlfriend, or woman at the desk next to you picked a better bracket then you because she picked zero upsets or liked the colors a team wore or a spelling of a team's name.  However, I hope that I can give you the lowdown on teams that have a chance to win this tournament.  Teams will be placed into three categories: Favorites, Contenders and Darkhorses.

Favorites

David Lights seeks the NCAATitle
 that eluded him as a freshman

#1 Ohio State University - This team has gelled around the emergence of standout freshman Jared Sullinger.  An experienced supporting cast including Jon Diebler, William Buford, Dallas Lauderdale, and David Lighty makes the Buckeyes, in my opinion a favorite to win this tournament.  Lighty has been to the Final Four before, as he was a freshman on the Buckeye's team with Greg Oden, Mike Conley Jr, and DaeQuan Cook that lost to Florida in the NCAA Tourney final back in 2007.  Freshman Aaron Craft plays big minutes for this team and leads the team in assists.  In addition to Craft, fellow freshman Deshaun Thomas and Jordan Sibert also contribute.  Expect this Buckeyes to be a lock for the Final Four, and have a chance at winning it all!

#2 University of Kansas - The Jayhawks lost arguably their top three players from last season and are still in the mix for the national title.  Although Cole Aldrich, Sherron Collins, and Xavier Henry left for the NBA, this Kansas team has carved out an impressive resume and should be looking to avenge their poor performance in the NCAA Tournament last year.  The Morris brothers, Markieff and Marcus headline a talented roster that scores 82 ppg.  Tyshawn Taylor, Brady Morningstar, Tyrel Reed, and freshman Josh Selby gives this Kansas team a talented roster that can put up a lot of points.  The Jayhawks have not lost a game in a month and are heading into the NCAA Tournament on a hot streak.  Although Kansas does have a habit of losing early round games, expect this team to ride to the Final Four and maybe the title if they don't get tripped up early on.

Nolan Smith and Duke
hope to repeat!

#5 Duke University - Fresh of their third straight ACC Tournament victory, the Duke Blue Devils looked really impressive against an improving North Carolina time that should be a #2 seed in the NCAA Tournament.  Kyle Singler and Nolan Smith captain the Blue Devil ship that includes strong role players such as Andre Dawkins and Seth Curry, who are deadly from behind the arc.  Ryan Kelly is a hybrid big man / outside shooter, and the Plumlee brothers provide a strong presence down low.  Some may stereotype Duke as a team that lives and dies by the three ball, but this team is solid in all facets of the game.  Expect Duke to make another run to the Final Four and possibly the title game, although there is a slight chance they get tripped up by a team with superior athleticism and strength down low like a Syracuse.

Contenders

Harrison Barnes and the Tar Heels
ended the regular sesaon strong
and could put together a
deep run in the NCAA tourney

#7 North Carolina - wow has this team grown up throughout the season!  Led by superstar freshman Harrison Barnes this team closed the season strong, with its only two losses in the past two months being against Duke.  Tyler Zeller and John Henson create a strong presence in the paint that will only get stronger, and a core of Dexter Strickland, Leslie McDonald, and Kendall Marshall at the guard positions gives UNC strong athleticism.  This team is not very good from behind the arc, which in my opinion makes the difference between a Favorite and a Contender for the NCAA title.  However, Barnes and Marshall do have the ability to hit threes as well as Reggie Bullock off the bench.  This team has unlimited potential and plays beyond its year's but it may be too soon to put this team in the NCAA title game, but with such a girth of talent you never now.  The Final Four is realistic for this group as it has improved dramatically throughout the year.

#10 University of Texas - After watching this team tear apart Michigan St this past December I knew this Texas team was special.  Considering they are an extremely athletic squad, it's no surprise that they are top-five in the nation in rebounding.  This team is led by swingman Jordan Hamilton, forward Gary Johnson, and super freshman Tristan Thompson.  Point Guard Cory Joseph is an accomplished freshman and handles very well for a player his age.  Role players include J'Covan Brown and Dogus Balbay.  This team, like North Carolina, is pretty young, but athletic and talented enough to make a deep run in the tournament, maybe even to the title if everything goes right.  One red light for this Texas team: they are only 4-4 in their last eight games, and may be running out of steam heading into the tournament.  Expect this team to either bounce out early or make a very deep run.

#4 University of Pittsburgh - The Panthers have quietly amassed a 27-5 record and won the Big East title outright, despite a lack of superstar talent.  This team is very solid defensively and is one of the top rebounding teams in the nation.  Guard Ashton Gibbs leads a strong backcourt with senior Brad Wanamaker, and Gary McGhee is an excellent defender at Center.  Gilbert Brown is an experienced and well-rounded player at the 3, and role players Nasir Robinson, Travon Woodall, and Dante Taylor fill out the team.  This team isn't flashy, but knows how to win and has a lot of senior leadership.  The Panthers are well coached and primed to make a deep run in the NCAA tournament.  Not sure how this team would hold up against the likes of Ohio St or Duke, but you have to like their chances at making a run

Darkhorses
Before I mention these teams I want to say a few words about the term "darkhorse."  These teams are very good teams, but are considered darkhorses because they won't (assumedly) be receiving a #1 or #2 seed.  However, I think they have the drive and skill to play with the best teams in the nation and make a run.

Unbelievable? Walker and
UConn are Kemba-lievable!

#19 Connecticut - Ok, so maybe this team will be ranked five or six spots higher after their performance in the Big East tournament this week, but clearly there isn't a hotter team in college basketball right now.  Kemba Walker's performance throughout the Big East tournament was impressive, and that's an understatement.  He showed in the semifinal against Syracuse and final vs. Louisville that he is the top player in the country.  However, he also has a supporting cast that could take Connecticut on a ride to the NCAA Title.  Jeremy Lamb and Alex Oriakhi are strong contributors down low, and Shabazz Napier has impressed at point guard.  This team can go as far as Kemba can carry them, and the sky (NCAA Title) could be the limit if things continue to go well for this team

#11 Syracuse - The Orange started off the season hot, but were underwhelming throughout Big East play.  However, this team looked impressive against UConn Friday night, and I believe they have the necessary parts to give them a glimmer of hope to win the NCAA Tournament. Rick Jackson is a force in the paint, and Fab Melo continues to receive more playing time and develop on the inside.  Kris Joseph is versatile at forward and knows how to score, while Scoop Jardine (great name!) is clutch at the point guard position.  This team is pretty deep and explosive, and isn't afraid to shoot the trey, even though they don't shoot a very high percentage.  Strong rebounding and athleticism could take this team all the way, but they could falter early on as well as mistakes may plague them.

Brackets are available tonight so make sure you fill them out, and I hope you are as excited about the NCAA tournament as I am.  I will assuredly be filling out several different brackets, but within those brackets only teams mentioned here will be included in the Final Four.  Best of luck toeveryone with their brackets, and check back in a few days for more previews of the NCAA tourney.