NCAA Title Game Prediction!

Butler-UConn, Monday April 4th @ 9:23 pm ET

Hey guys, hope you had a chance to read my last blog regarding predictions for Saturday's games.  If not, I insist you check it out.  My prediction was extremely accurate for the VCU-Butler game, as Butler won by eight points in a close game down the stretch, just as I predicted. Now before I start stroking my ego too much, let me say I was pretty far off on the Kentucky-UConn game.  Yes, Kentucky looked liked the better team throughout the game. Yes, Kentucky did go 4-12 from the free throw line. Yes, Kentucky missed too many WIDE OPEN three's. Yet, UConn won and has a shot at their first NCAA title since 2004. 

And so we reach the NCAA Title game: Butler was expected to have a big season, and underachieved up until March. UConn was expected to be a middling-Big East team, and they were, despite the fact they went undefeated in non-conference play and won every close game down the stretch.  The Huskies, and specifically Kemba Walker, seem to 'get up' for tournament-style play and their freshman players have really developed throughout the year.  One thing both these teams have in common: winning the close games.  Lets take a look at each of these team's performances in their last 10 games decided by 5 points or less, and if a game goes into overtime it counts as 5 or less regardless of the final discrepancy:

  Date      Opponent         Score       Result    Record
                               Connecticut Huskies
    4/2         Kentucky        56-55          W            1-0
    3/26       Arizona           65-63          W            2-0
    3/12      Louisville         69-66          W            3-0
    3/11       Syracuse         76-71           W           4-0
    3/10      Pittsburgh       76-74           W           5-0
    3/5        Notre Dame     67-70           L            5-1
    2/24      Marquette      67-74 (OT)          L            5-2
    2/5        Seton Hall        61-59          W           6-2
    1/29      Louisville        78-79 (2OT)     L             6-3
    1/17      Villanova         61-59           W           7-3


                                                       Butler Bulldogs
    3/26       Florida           74-71 (OT)      W            1-0
    3/19      Pittsburgh       71-70           W            2-0
    3/17     Old Dominion  60-58           W             3-0
    2/15      Wisc- GB         64-62           W            4-0
    2/3     Youngstown St   60-62           L             4-1
    1/29     Valparaiso       79-85 (OT)       L             4-2
    1/23    Wisc - Milw       80-86 (OT)      L             4-3
    1/16     Wright St          64-69           L             4-4   
    1/9     Youngstown St    84-79          W            5-4
    12/23    Florida St         67-64          W            6-4

Clearly both these teams have played well in tight games down the strech, despite some struggles during conference play, and they wouldn't be here today without knowing how to win close games.  It seems that Connecticut has more experience playing in tight games, due to the competitive nature of their conference, but Butler has won three NCAA tournament games in the final seconds or in OT, led by Matt Howard's strong, instinctual efforts.  Butler and UConn match up pretty well against each other, as Alex Oriakhi and Charles Okwandu should have trouble with Matt Howard down low, while a combination of Ronald Nored, Khyle Marshall, and maybe even Shelvin Mack will have difficulties defending Kemba Walker.  In my opinion, I know what to expect from Butler: a solid, no nonsense game.  They are well coached and have been here before, so they'll be ready to play.  UConn's freshmen are the X-Factor's for this game.  If Shabazz Napier can keep defending at a high level, distribute well, and avoid poor shots, UConn's level of play will really rise.  If Jeremy Lamb continues to assume the level of play he has established throughout the tournament, UConn will be able to impose a more athletic level of play upon Butler.  Can Kemba and his freshman partners in crime deny Butler the goal they almost attained last year?  I don't think so.

Make it: Butler 64 - UConn 59

Best of luck to both teams in what has been an NCAA tournament filled with surprises!