NCAA Title Game Prediction!

Butler-UConn, Monday April 4th @ 9:23 pm ET

Hey guys, hope you had a chance to read my last blog regarding predictions for Saturday's games.  If not, I insist you check it out.  My prediction was extremely accurate for the VCU-Butler game, as Butler won by eight points in a close game down the stretch, just as I predicted. Now before I start stroking my ego too much, let me say I was pretty far off on the Kentucky-UConn game.  Yes, Kentucky looked liked the better team throughout the game. Yes, Kentucky did go 4-12 from the free throw line. Yes, Kentucky missed too many WIDE OPEN three's. Yet, UConn won and has a shot at their first NCAA title since 2004. 

And so we reach the NCAA Title game: Butler was expected to have a big season, and underachieved up until March. UConn was expected to be a middling-Big East team, and they were, despite the fact they went undefeated in non-conference play and won every close game down the stretch.  The Huskies, and specifically Kemba Walker, seem to 'get up' for tournament-style play and their freshman players have really developed throughout the year.  One thing both these teams have in common: winning the close games.  Lets take a look at each of these team's performances in their last 10 games decided by 5 points or less, and if a game goes into overtime it counts as 5 or less regardless of the final discrepancy:

  Date      Opponent         Score       Result    Record
                               Connecticut Huskies
    4/2         Kentucky        56-55          W            1-0
    3/26       Arizona           65-63          W            2-0
    3/12      Louisville         69-66          W            3-0
    3/11       Syracuse         76-71           W           4-0
    3/10      Pittsburgh       76-74           W           5-0
    3/5        Notre Dame     67-70           L            5-1
    2/24      Marquette      67-74 (OT)          L            5-2
    2/5        Seton Hall        61-59          W           6-2
    1/29      Louisville        78-79 (2OT)     L             6-3
    1/17      Villanova         61-59           W           7-3


                                                       Butler Bulldogs
    3/26       Florida           74-71 (OT)      W            1-0
    3/19      Pittsburgh       71-70           W            2-0
    3/17     Old Dominion  60-58           W             3-0
    2/15      Wisc- GB         64-62           W            4-0
    2/3     Youngstown St   60-62           L             4-1
    1/29     Valparaiso       79-85 (OT)       L             4-2
    1/23    Wisc - Milw       80-86 (OT)      L             4-3
    1/16     Wright St          64-69           L             4-4   
    1/9     Youngstown St    84-79          W            5-4
    12/23    Florida St         67-64          W            6-4

Clearly both these teams have played well in tight games down the strech, despite some struggles during conference play, and they wouldn't be here today without knowing how to win close games.  It seems that Connecticut has more experience playing in tight games, due to the competitive nature of their conference, but Butler has won three NCAA tournament games in the final seconds or in OT, led by Matt Howard's strong, instinctual efforts.  Butler and UConn match up pretty well against each other, as Alex Oriakhi and Charles Okwandu should have trouble with Matt Howard down low, while a combination of Ronald Nored, Khyle Marshall, and maybe even Shelvin Mack will have difficulties defending Kemba Walker.  In my opinion, I know what to expect from Butler: a solid, no nonsense game.  They are well coached and have been here before, so they'll be ready to play.  UConn's freshmen are the X-Factor's for this game.  If Shabazz Napier can keep defending at a high level, distribute well, and avoid poor shots, UConn's level of play will really rise.  If Jeremy Lamb continues to assume the level of play he has established throughout the tournament, UConn will be able to impose a more athletic level of play upon Butler.  Can Kemba and his freshman partners in crime deny Butler the goal they almost attained last year?  I don't think so.

Make it: Butler 64 - UConn 59

Best of luck to both teams in what has been an NCAA tournament filled with surprises!

Final Four Preview: Pretty Wild(cats)!

The Final Four is finally upon is, and it seems like I haven't seen a basketball game in ages!  The heavy concentration of games the past two weeks made this week quite a drag, as no games were played Thursday or Friday.  However, we're back in business as the Final Four begins tomorrow in Houston, Texas, starting with Virginia Commonwealth vs. Butler at 6:09 pm ET and followed shortly after by Kentucky vs Connecticut at 8:49 pm ET.  Considering the way these teams finished the regular season, it's no surprise they made it this far. 

Kentucky captured the SEC Conference Tournament, soundly defeating NCAA Tournament #2 seed Florida in the final.  They defeated Ivy League champion Princeton, West Virginia, Big Ten champ and overall #1 seed Ohio State, and North Carolina on their road to the Final Four.  It's amazing how John Calipari reloaded following the departure of five players to the NBA last year, including #1 pick John Wall.

Kemba Walker and UConn are
two games removed from
their first NCAA title since 2004!

UConn tore through the Big East tournament, winning five games in five days to capture the title, culminating with a win over Louisville in the final.  They proceeded to defeat Bucknell, Cincinnati, Mountain West Champion San Diego State, and Arizona on their path to the Final Four.  Although this team is led by Kemba Walker, role players have stepped up throughout the tournament. 
VCU made the Colonial Athletic Association final, losing to Old Dominion in a close game.  Since then, VCU defeated USC, Georgetown, Purdue, Florida St. and Big 12 Champion Kansas on the road to the Final Four.  What's impressive about VCU is they keep winning with limited size, and a high percentage of three point field goals.  By far the most volatile, but most dangerous team in the Final Four considering their seed.

Butler recovered from a slow start to the season to win the Horizon League Championship and received an automatic bid.  Butler defeated CAA champ Old Dominion, Big East regular season champion Pittsburgh, Wisconsin, and SEC runner-up Florida to reach the Final Four.  Butler's team just knows how to win, evidenced from their run to the NCAA Championship game last year and superb play down the stretch against Florida, Old Dominion, and Pittsburgh.

Josn Harrellson has established himself as a
strong low-post presence, adding another
weapon to Kentucky's arsenal

So who'll emerge victorious in these games?  Connecticut and Kentucky played earlier this season in the Maui Classic, UConn winning 84-67.  However, this Kentucky team is much more mature then they were back in November.  They've won their past eleven games, and each game they've lost since the beginning of February has been by four points or less.  This team is always in the game, and never gets blown out.  Plus, they've already defended against Kemba Walker and should know to some extent what to expect from him.  Brandon Knight is turning into a star distributing the ball and driving to the hoop, while Terrence Jones excels at scoring.  Doron Lamb, Darius Miller, and DeAndre Liggins are threats from outside, while Josh Harrellson has steadily improved as a force in the paint.  This team is not very deep, but is extremely talented and atheltic, staying out of foul trouble.  Connecticut has finished the season exceptionally strong as well, winning its past nine ballgames.  Shabazz Napier and Jeremy Lamb have stepped up their play down the stretch, increasing the options on this ballclub.  UConn already has a win over Kentucky this year, which should give them confidence.  Yet, this Kentucky team as far more experienced and battle-tested then that team in November.  This game could go either way, as both teams finished the season strong, but I see Kentucky winning this game with some clutch play by Brandon Knight down the stretch.

Make it: Kentucky 76 - UConn 70

Brad Stevens has established himself as one of
the nation's premier coaches, leading
Butler to consecutive Final Four's

Butler and VCU both overcame mid-season adversity to successfully earn NCAA bids, Butler's through the Horizon League championship and VCU's through one of the last at-large bids.  Think of how different this year's tournament may have been if not for the expansion from 65 to 68 teams, the Rams may not have been included.  VCU didn't necessarily finish the season 'strong' yet made the final of their conference tournament, coincidentally losing to an Old Dominion team which Butler defeated in the 1st round of the NCAA tournament.  However, the Rams are shooting 44 percent from three during the NCAA tournament, despite a poor rebounding margin and a mediocre defense.  It seems that opposing squads haven't prepared for and haven't seen many teams like VCU whose play deviates so much from the status quo.  However, Butler has had six days to prepare for VCU, and has athletic, on-ball defenders to handle the versatility of the VCU guards and forwards.  Shelvin Mack and Ronald Nored are excellent defenders, and Butler plays an eight-deep rotation which provides flexibility if some players are in foul trouble.  I just can't see Butler not preparing well for this game, and I don't know if VCU has an answer for Matt Howard down low.  Despite their cinderalla run last year, Butler is determined to return to the ball again behind strong upper-class leadership and excellent coaching by Brad Stevens.  Butler wins this game if it is close down the stretch, and I can truly only see VCU winning this game if they shoot a high percentage from downtown and force Butler to play a faster tempo.

Make it: Butler 66 - VCU 58

Check back Sunday for a preview of the NCAA title game, I'm expecting Kentucky to win at this point, but I'll have more of an idea following tonight's games!

NCAA Tournament Reflections Thus Far: Parity defies Tradition

This past week I had the pleasure of returning to Williamston/Okemos/East Lansing for my spring break.  When I returned home from the airport, I made my way to my room upstairs.  An NCAA tourney bracket I had filled out in 2006 remained on my bulletin board!  It had UConn and Duke playing in the final with UConn winning the whole tournament.  If you were unaware, this team boasted future NBA players Rudy Gay, Jeff Adrien, Hilton Armstrong, Marcus Williams, Josh Boone, and AJ Price.  After perusing through the bracket, I chuckled at how poorly I had predicted the Final Four.  I had George Mason losing to Michigan St in the 1st round and Florida losing to Ohio St in the Sweet 16; those teams ended up meeting in the Final Four!  The only team I correctly predicted to make the Final Four was UCLA.  Little did I know that that bracket would closely resemble this year's...

Each year I ponder whether I should try to create an algorithm to predict the winner of the NCAA tournament.  In the past I've been able to predict the winning team about 50% of the time.  Since I started intensely following college basketball in 2003, I've predicted the winner correctly with UConn in 2004, UNC in 2005, Florida, in 2007, Kansas in 2008, and UNC in 2009.  I feel like two characteristics stick out in teams that win the NCAA tourney.  These may seem obvious, but nonetheless are important:

(1) Many future NBA players on the team:

Joakim Noah and co. powered Florida
to two NCAA titles.

Florida's whole starting five from the 2006-2007 championship teams made the NBA: Corey Brewer, Joakim Noah, Al Horford, Taureen Grean and Lee Humphrey (briefly), and Maurice Speights off the bench.

Kansas's core from the 2008 championship team: Darrell Arthur, Cole Aldrich, Mario Chalmers, Brandon Rush, Sherron Collins, and Darnell Jackson all made it into the NBA.

(2) Strong inside presence:
UConn's 2004 championship team:
Emeka Okafor - 6'9
Hilton Armstrong - 6'10
Josh Boone - 6'10
Charlie Villanueva - 6'10

UNC's 2005 championship team:
Jawad Williams - 6'9
Marvin Williams - 6'9
Damian Grant - 6'11
Sean May - 6'9

Kyle Singler and a star-studded Duke
squad couldn't make it past
the Sweet 16

This year I filled out four brackets, and based my winner's on both these categories.  Therefore, I had Ohio St winning in one of my brackets, as they have a strong inside presence with Jared Sullinger and Dallas Lauderdale, as well as future pro prospects on the wings including Jon Diebler, William Buford and David Lighty in addition to Sullinger.  I also had Duke winning in two of my brackets, as Nolan Smith, Kyle Singler, Seth Curry, Kyrie Irving, and Andre Dawkins are arguably pro prospects and the Plumlee brothers are serviceable in the low post.  In another bracket I had Kansas winning, as Markieff and Marcus Morris are NBA-caliber forwards, and Josh Selby and Tyshawn Taylor are pro prospects as well.  Clearly none of these teams panned out.  But do Butler, VCU, UConn and Kentucky/UNC defy my formula?

VCU definitely defies the formula for a tournament winning team.  This team shoots an abundance of three-pointers, starts three guards 6-6 or shorter, and lacks a scoring big.  VCU shot 12-25 from beyond the arc to beat Kansas today, while playing four guards for most of the game. 

Butler sports a tough big and NBA prospect with Matt Howard, along with future NBA player Shelden Mack.  Although this team may come across is a pretty average team, they are fundamentally strong, and have played together for a long time as the top players on the team are all juniors and seniors.  This team just flat out knows how to win, and has a girth of tournament experience with most its players returning from last year's NCAA Title game run. 

Can Brandon Knight lead a young
but talented Kentucky team to
the NCAA title?

Kentucky and UNC are packed with future pro's.  It's no surprise that these two teams are competing for a birth in the Final Four, as there is an impeccable amount of talent on the court in this game.  Carolina has a strong inside presence with John Henson and Tyler Zeller, and Harrison Barnes will be a star at the next level.  Kentucky sports Brandon Knight, Terrence Jones, Darius Miller, and DeAndre Liggins, who should translate to the next level.  The winner of this game should, in my opinion, win the NCAA title unless...

...UConn can defeat the winner of this game.  Kemba Walker is a superstar, and freshman Jeremy Lamb, Tyler Olander, and Shabazz Napier are all potential NBA prospects, in addition to sophomore Alex Oriakhi.  This team is young, but has been riding Kemba Walker to the Final Four. 
We will see how far Kemba can take them, maybe all the way to the title.

So this year parity has defied tradition on the road to the Final Four, no #1 or #2 seeds made the Final Four, and a #11 seed will be playing a #8 for the chance to play for the NCAA Championship.  Traditional powers have fallen to young upstarts and mid-majors.  Check back later in the week for previews of the Final Four.  And although my brackets have crumbled apart this year, it's great to see parity in college basketball!!

Who can win it all? Eight teams that could win the NCAA tournament

Like most sports fans at this time of year, I've caught college basketball fever.  The NBA and NHL are at somewhat of a lull at this time of year, as the playoffs do not start for another month or so, and the MLB season is just around the corner, so naturally March Madness is something to get excited about!  It's almost time to start filling out brackets and throwing money into NCAA pools with your friends, family, and co-workers.  That also means it's almost time to start lamenting about how your sister, girlfriend, or woman at the desk next to you picked a better bracket then you because she picked zero upsets or liked the colors a team wore or a spelling of a team's name.  However, I hope that I can give you the lowdown on teams that have a chance to win this tournament.  Teams will be placed into three categories: Favorites, Contenders and Darkhorses.

Favorites

David Lights seeks the NCAATitle
 that eluded him as a freshman

#1 Ohio State University - This team has gelled around the emergence of standout freshman Jared Sullinger.  An experienced supporting cast including Jon Diebler, William Buford, Dallas Lauderdale, and David Lighty makes the Buckeyes, in my opinion a favorite to win this tournament.  Lighty has been to the Final Four before, as he was a freshman on the Buckeye's team with Greg Oden, Mike Conley Jr, and DaeQuan Cook that lost to Florida in the NCAA Tourney final back in 2007.  Freshman Aaron Craft plays big minutes for this team and leads the team in assists.  In addition to Craft, fellow freshman Deshaun Thomas and Jordan Sibert also contribute.  Expect this Buckeyes to be a lock for the Final Four, and have a chance at winning it all!

#2 University of Kansas - The Jayhawks lost arguably their top three players from last season and are still in the mix for the national title.  Although Cole Aldrich, Sherron Collins, and Xavier Henry left for the NBA, this Kansas team has carved out an impressive resume and should be looking to avenge their poor performance in the NCAA Tournament last year.  The Morris brothers, Markieff and Marcus headline a talented roster that scores 82 ppg.  Tyshawn Taylor, Brady Morningstar, Tyrel Reed, and freshman Josh Selby gives this Kansas team a talented roster that can put up a lot of points.  The Jayhawks have not lost a game in a month and are heading into the NCAA Tournament on a hot streak.  Although Kansas does have a habit of losing early round games, expect this team to ride to the Final Four and maybe the title if they don't get tripped up early on.

Nolan Smith and Duke
hope to repeat!

#5 Duke University - Fresh of their third straight ACC Tournament victory, the Duke Blue Devils looked really impressive against an improving North Carolina time that should be a #2 seed in the NCAA Tournament.  Kyle Singler and Nolan Smith captain the Blue Devil ship that includes strong role players such as Andre Dawkins and Seth Curry, who are deadly from behind the arc.  Ryan Kelly is a hybrid big man / outside shooter, and the Plumlee brothers provide a strong presence down low.  Some may stereotype Duke as a team that lives and dies by the three ball, but this team is solid in all facets of the game.  Expect Duke to make another run to the Final Four and possibly the title game, although there is a slight chance they get tripped up by a team with superior athleticism and strength down low like a Syracuse.

Contenders

Harrison Barnes and the Tar Heels
ended the regular sesaon strong
and could put together a
deep run in the NCAA tourney

#7 North Carolina - wow has this team grown up throughout the season!  Led by superstar freshman Harrison Barnes this team closed the season strong, with its only two losses in the past two months being against Duke.  Tyler Zeller and John Henson create a strong presence in the paint that will only get stronger, and a core of Dexter Strickland, Leslie McDonald, and Kendall Marshall at the guard positions gives UNC strong athleticism.  This team is not very good from behind the arc, which in my opinion makes the difference between a Favorite and a Contender for the NCAA title.  However, Barnes and Marshall do have the ability to hit threes as well as Reggie Bullock off the bench.  This team has unlimited potential and plays beyond its year's but it may be too soon to put this team in the NCAA title game, but with such a girth of talent you never now.  The Final Four is realistic for this group as it has improved dramatically throughout the year.

#10 University of Texas - After watching this team tear apart Michigan St this past December I knew this Texas team was special.  Considering they are an extremely athletic squad, it's no surprise that they are top-five in the nation in rebounding.  This team is led by swingman Jordan Hamilton, forward Gary Johnson, and super freshman Tristan Thompson.  Point Guard Cory Joseph is an accomplished freshman and handles very well for a player his age.  Role players include J'Covan Brown and Dogus Balbay.  This team, like North Carolina, is pretty young, but athletic and talented enough to make a deep run in the tournament, maybe even to the title if everything goes right.  One red light for this Texas team: they are only 4-4 in their last eight games, and may be running out of steam heading into the tournament.  Expect this team to either bounce out early or make a very deep run.

#4 University of Pittsburgh - The Panthers have quietly amassed a 27-5 record and won the Big East title outright, despite a lack of superstar talent.  This team is very solid defensively and is one of the top rebounding teams in the nation.  Guard Ashton Gibbs leads a strong backcourt with senior Brad Wanamaker, and Gary McGhee is an excellent defender at Center.  Gilbert Brown is an experienced and well-rounded player at the 3, and role players Nasir Robinson, Travon Woodall, and Dante Taylor fill out the team.  This team isn't flashy, but knows how to win and has a lot of senior leadership.  The Panthers are well coached and primed to make a deep run in the NCAA tournament.  Not sure how this team would hold up against the likes of Ohio St or Duke, but you have to like their chances at making a run

Darkhorses
Before I mention these teams I want to say a few words about the term "darkhorse."  These teams are very good teams, but are considered darkhorses because they won't (assumedly) be receiving a #1 or #2 seed.  However, I think they have the drive and skill to play with the best teams in the nation and make a run.

Unbelievable? Walker and
UConn are Kemba-lievable!

#19 Connecticut - Ok, so maybe this team will be ranked five or six spots higher after their performance in the Big East tournament this week, but clearly there isn't a hotter team in college basketball right now.  Kemba Walker's performance throughout the Big East tournament was impressive, and that's an understatement.  He showed in the semifinal against Syracuse and final vs. Louisville that he is the top player in the country.  However, he also has a supporting cast that could take Connecticut on a ride to the NCAA Title.  Jeremy Lamb and Alex Oriakhi are strong contributors down low, and Shabazz Napier has impressed at point guard.  This team can go as far as Kemba can carry them, and the sky (NCAA Title) could be the limit if things continue to go well for this team

#11 Syracuse - The Orange started off the season hot, but were underwhelming throughout Big East play.  However, this team looked impressive against UConn Friday night, and I believe they have the necessary parts to give them a glimmer of hope to win the NCAA Tournament. Rick Jackson is a force in the paint, and Fab Melo continues to receive more playing time and develop on the inside.  Kris Joseph is versatile at forward and knows how to score, while Scoop Jardine (great name!) is clutch at the point guard position.  This team is pretty deep and explosive, and isn't afraid to shoot the trey, even though they don't shoot a very high percentage.  Strong rebounding and athleticism could take this team all the way, but they could falter early on as well as mistakes may plague them.

Brackets are available tonight so make sure you fill them out, and I hope you are as excited about the NCAA tournament as I am.  I will assuredly be filling out several different brackets, but within those brackets only teams mentioned here will be included in the Final Four.  Best of luck toeveryone with their brackets, and check back in a few days for more previews of the NCAA tourney.