NCAA Tournament Reflections Thus Far: Parity defies Tradition

This past week I had the pleasure of returning to Williamston/Okemos/East Lansing for my spring break.  When I returned home from the airport, I made my way to my room upstairs.  An NCAA tourney bracket I had filled out in 2006 remained on my bulletin board!  It had UConn and Duke playing in the final with UConn winning the whole tournament.  If you were unaware, this team boasted future NBA players Rudy Gay, Jeff Adrien, Hilton Armstrong, Marcus Williams, Josh Boone, and AJ Price.  After perusing through the bracket, I chuckled at how poorly I had predicted the Final Four.  I had George Mason losing to Michigan St in the 1st round and Florida losing to Ohio St in the Sweet 16; those teams ended up meeting in the Final Four!  The only team I correctly predicted to make the Final Four was UCLA.  Little did I know that that bracket would closely resemble this year's...

Each year I ponder whether I should try to create an algorithm to predict the winner of the NCAA tournament.  In the past I've been able to predict the winning team about 50% of the time.  Since I started intensely following college basketball in 2003, I've predicted the winner correctly with UConn in 2004, UNC in 2005, Florida, in 2007, Kansas in 2008, and UNC in 2009.  I feel like two characteristics stick out in teams that win the NCAA tourney.  These may seem obvious, but nonetheless are important:

(1) Many future NBA players on the team:

Joakim Noah and co. powered Florida
to two NCAA titles.

Florida's whole starting five from the 2006-2007 championship teams made the NBA: Corey Brewer, Joakim Noah, Al Horford, Taureen Grean and Lee Humphrey (briefly), and Maurice Speights off the bench.

Kansas's core from the 2008 championship team: Darrell Arthur, Cole Aldrich, Mario Chalmers, Brandon Rush, Sherron Collins, and Darnell Jackson all made it into the NBA.

(2) Strong inside presence:
UConn's 2004 championship team:
Emeka Okafor - 6'9
Hilton Armstrong - 6'10
Josh Boone - 6'10
Charlie Villanueva - 6'10

UNC's 2005 championship team:
Jawad Williams - 6'9
Marvin Williams - 6'9
Damian Grant - 6'11
Sean May - 6'9

Kyle Singler and a star-studded Duke
squad couldn't make it past
the Sweet 16

This year I filled out four brackets, and based my winner's on both these categories.  Therefore, I had Ohio St winning in one of my brackets, as they have a strong inside presence with Jared Sullinger and Dallas Lauderdale, as well as future pro prospects on the wings including Jon Diebler, William Buford and David Lighty in addition to Sullinger.  I also had Duke winning in two of my brackets, as Nolan Smith, Kyle Singler, Seth Curry, Kyrie Irving, and Andre Dawkins are arguably pro prospects and the Plumlee brothers are serviceable in the low post.  In another bracket I had Kansas winning, as Markieff and Marcus Morris are NBA-caliber forwards, and Josh Selby and Tyshawn Taylor are pro prospects as well.  Clearly none of these teams panned out.  But do Butler, VCU, UConn and Kentucky/UNC defy my formula?

VCU definitely defies the formula for a tournament winning team.  This team shoots an abundance of three-pointers, starts three guards 6-6 or shorter, and lacks a scoring big.  VCU shot 12-25 from beyond the arc to beat Kansas today, while playing four guards for most of the game. 

Butler sports a tough big and NBA prospect with Matt Howard, along with future NBA player Shelden Mack.  Although this team may come across is a pretty average team, they are fundamentally strong, and have played together for a long time as the top players on the team are all juniors and seniors.  This team just flat out knows how to win, and has a girth of tournament experience with most its players returning from last year's NCAA Title game run. 

Can Brandon Knight lead a young
but talented Kentucky team to
the NCAA title?

Kentucky and UNC are packed with future pro's.  It's no surprise that these two teams are competing for a birth in the Final Four, as there is an impeccable amount of talent on the court in this game.  Carolina has a strong inside presence with John Henson and Tyler Zeller, and Harrison Barnes will be a star at the next level.  Kentucky sports Brandon Knight, Terrence Jones, Darius Miller, and DeAndre Liggins, who should translate to the next level.  The winner of this game should, in my opinion, win the NCAA title unless...

...UConn can defeat the winner of this game.  Kemba Walker is a superstar, and freshman Jeremy Lamb, Tyler Olander, and Shabazz Napier are all potential NBA prospects, in addition to sophomore Alex Oriakhi.  This team is young, but has been riding Kemba Walker to the Final Four. 
We will see how far Kemba can take them, maybe all the way to the title.

So this year parity has defied tradition on the road to the Final Four, no #1 or #2 seeds made the Final Four, and a #11 seed will be playing a #8 for the chance to play for the NCAA Championship.  Traditional powers have fallen to young upstarts and mid-majors.  Check back later in the week for previews of the Final Four.  And although my brackets have crumbled apart this year, it's great to see parity in college basketball!!