Bubble Watch: Big Ten

Hey guys, back it at after a two-week hiatus!  Even though I was away, college basketball never left.  It's almost time for March Madness baby!!  Today I will be looking at the Big Ten conference, as it has four teams that finished with mediocre conference records that are considered 'on the bubble' by college basketball analysts for the upcoming NCAA Tournament.  In my opinion, these teams include: Michigan St, Michigan, Penn St, and Illinois.  One month ago, Illinois was expected to make the tournament while the other three teams were struggling.  However, late season pushes by the Spartans, Wolverines, and Nittany Lions have them back into the NCAA Tournament picture.  Below is a table citing the record, conference record, RPI, and SOS of these teams:



TEAM         Record    (Big10)    RPI     SOS  

Michigan St   19-14         9-9          40          9

Michigan       20-13         9-9          50          17

Penn St         19-13         9-9          43          5

Illinois           19-13         9-9          44         16



Kalin Lucas revived the
Spartans against Purdue



Michigan St - Considered a bubble team entering the Big Ten Tournament, the Spartans proceeded to defeat Iowa and then shocked Purdue.  Although the record isn't very impressive, wins vs. Pac Ten Champion Washington, @ Oakland, vs. Wisconsin, vs. Penn St, and vs. Purdue are wins against tournament teams.  These wins and a strong reputation should be enough to propel Michigan State into the tournament.

Expected seed: #9 seed

Michigan - considering the Wolverines began Big Ten play with a 1-6 record and they lost their top two players from last season, no one expected Michigan to finish the season like they did.  Michigan picked up key wins vs and @ Michigan St, @ Clemson, vs. and @ Penn St, vs. Oakland, and vs. Harvard (who in my opinion should make the NCAA tourney as an at large).  Although the Wolverines have not defeated any top-25 teams, they lost to Kansas in OT and to Syracuse by only three and closed the season with statement wins against Michigan St and Illinois.  Michigan plays most teams tough, and should earn a low seed in the NCAA tournament.

Expected seed: #10 seed

Talor Battle led Penn St
to victories over
Wisconsin and MSU,
revitalizing their NCAA
tourney resume.

Penn St - like Michigan, Penn St was out of the NCAA tourney picture for a while but resurfaced with several strong wins in the Big Ten tournament.  If Penn St beats Ohio St tomorrow afternoon, they will be an automatic qualifier, but assuming they don't I still think they can make it in.  Two wins against both Michigan St and Wisconsin are Penn St.'s most valuable assets, as they played a pretty weak non-conference schedule.  Fortunately for them, the bubble is pretty weak this year and the committee should take note of Penn St winning seven of their last nine games.

Expected seed: #11 seed

Illinois - Illinois is the odd-man out of this group.  This team had high expectations at the beginning of the season, but has struggled down the stretch.  Illinois lost to Michigan in it's only game of the Big Ten tournament, and lost four of it's last six games.  However, Illinois won vs. UNC, vs. Oakland, vs. Wisconsin, vs Michigan St, and vs Michigan.  These are all quality wins against tournament teams, but will the selection committee forget about these considering many of them were early in the season?  Although most analysts are skeptical toward Illinois, I think they will make it in.       Expected seed: # 11 seed

Cheer up Spartan Fans!

Ranked #2 in the nation to begin the season, Michigan State's season has been disappointing, disappointing being an understatement.  Currently sporting a 14-11 overall record, and a 6-7 clip in Big Ten play, the Spartans have slipped into unfamiliar territory and are in danger of missing the NCAA tournament.  Losses to traditional Big Ten bottom-feeders such as Michigan and Iowa were unacceptable, but besides that the Spartans have played a very strong schedule this year.  Lets take a look at the teams Michigan State has lost to this season and their rankings:

Michigan State Spartans
14-11 (6-7) RPI = 46  SOS = 5

   Date        Opponent         Score         Ranking  
11/23          UConn            70-67         #13
12/1             Duke              84-79         #5
12/7           Syracuse           72-58        #17
12/22           Texas             67-55         #3
1/8              Penn St.           66-62        N/R
1/18             Illinois             71-62         N/R
1/22             Purdue            86-76        #11
1/27            Michigan          61-57        N/R
2/2                Iowa              72-52        N/R
2/6              Wisconsin        82-56        #10
2/15            Ohio St            71-61        #2

Clearly Michigan State has played against many tough opponents, and can flaunt a win against #10 Wisconsin to the NCAA tourney committee as a quality win.  In most years, a team with a 14-11 record would have little chance to make the NCAA tournament, however, this year the bubble is very weak.  The addition of three more teams to the tournament is a boon to teams looking for at large bids.  These bids seem to be up for grabs for middle-feeders of the top conferences like the Big Ten, Big East, Big 12, ACC.  Play-in games now exist for seeds other then #16, a huge bonus for Michigan State.  The remaining schedule for the Spartans is shown below, along with my predictions for each game:

Date    Opponent   W/L
2/19    vs. Illinois     W  - The Illini are reeling and Demetri McCamey is struggling, Spartans win this one
2/22   @ Minnesota L  -  A balanced Gophers team exacts revenge from Decembers matchup @ the Bres
2/27    vs. Purdue    L - State cant handle an elite Purdue team looking to solidify a strong NCAA seed
3/2      vs. Iowa       W - Spartans crush an Iowa team that they played their worst game of the year against
3/5     @ Michigan  W  - State beats a tough Michigan team on the road to give it hope for an NCAA tournament birth.

Final Record: 17-13 (8-8)

An NCAA birth will hinge on Michigan State's success in the Big Ten Tournament.  If Michigan St can make it to the final of the Big Ten Tournament, I am certain they will lock up an NCAA birth. Semifinals? Most likely?  Quarterfinals? Don't count on it.  However, this Michigan State team seems to have the resolve to win when it matters most, as State has performed quite well in it's overtime games earlier this season.  Expect to see Kalin Lucas and the Spartans making noise in the month of March again this year, even if it won't be at the Final Four like many expected.