Bubble Watch: Big Ten

Hey guys, back it at after a two-week hiatus!  Even though I was away, college basketball never left.  It's almost time for March Madness baby!!  Today I will be looking at the Big Ten conference, as it has four teams that finished with mediocre conference records that are considered 'on the bubble' by college basketball analysts for the upcoming NCAA Tournament.  In my opinion, these teams include: Michigan St, Michigan, Penn St, and Illinois.  One month ago, Illinois was expected to make the tournament while the other three teams were struggling.  However, late season pushes by the Spartans, Wolverines, and Nittany Lions have them back into the NCAA Tournament picture.  Below is a table citing the record, conference record, RPI, and SOS of these teams:



TEAM         Record    (Big10)    RPI     SOS  

Michigan St   19-14         9-9          40          9

Michigan       20-13         9-9          50          17

Penn St         19-13         9-9          43          5

Illinois           19-13         9-9          44         16



Kalin Lucas revived the
Spartans against Purdue



Michigan St - Considered a bubble team entering the Big Ten Tournament, the Spartans proceeded to defeat Iowa and then shocked Purdue.  Although the record isn't very impressive, wins vs. Pac Ten Champion Washington, @ Oakland, vs. Wisconsin, vs. Penn St, and vs. Purdue are wins against tournament teams.  These wins and a strong reputation should be enough to propel Michigan State into the tournament.

Expected seed: #9 seed

Michigan - considering the Wolverines began Big Ten play with a 1-6 record and they lost their top two players from last season, no one expected Michigan to finish the season like they did.  Michigan picked up key wins vs and @ Michigan St, @ Clemson, vs. and @ Penn St, vs. Oakland, and vs. Harvard (who in my opinion should make the NCAA tourney as an at large).  Although the Wolverines have not defeated any top-25 teams, they lost to Kansas in OT and to Syracuse by only three and closed the season with statement wins against Michigan St and Illinois.  Michigan plays most teams tough, and should earn a low seed in the NCAA tournament.

Expected seed: #10 seed

Talor Battle led Penn St
to victories over
Wisconsin and MSU,
revitalizing their NCAA
tourney resume.

Penn St - like Michigan, Penn St was out of the NCAA tourney picture for a while but resurfaced with several strong wins in the Big Ten tournament.  If Penn St beats Ohio St tomorrow afternoon, they will be an automatic qualifier, but assuming they don't I still think they can make it in.  Two wins against both Michigan St and Wisconsin are Penn St.'s most valuable assets, as they played a pretty weak non-conference schedule.  Fortunately for them, the bubble is pretty weak this year and the committee should take note of Penn St winning seven of their last nine games.

Expected seed: #11 seed

Illinois - Illinois is the odd-man out of this group.  This team had high expectations at the beginning of the season, but has struggled down the stretch.  Illinois lost to Michigan in it's only game of the Big Ten tournament, and lost four of it's last six games.  However, Illinois won vs. UNC, vs. Oakland, vs. Wisconsin, vs Michigan St, and vs Michigan.  These are all quality wins against tournament teams, but will the selection committee forget about these considering many of them were early in the season?  Although most analysts are skeptical toward Illinois, I think they will make it in.       Expected seed: # 11 seed