Bubble Watch: Big Ten

Hey guys, back it at after a two-week hiatus!  Even though I was away, college basketball never left.  It's almost time for March Madness baby!!  Today I will be looking at the Big Ten conference, as it has four teams that finished with mediocre conference records that are considered 'on the bubble' by college basketball analysts for the upcoming NCAA Tournament.  In my opinion, these teams include: Michigan St, Michigan, Penn St, and Illinois.  One month ago, Illinois was expected to make the tournament while the other three teams were struggling.  However, late season pushes by the Spartans, Wolverines, and Nittany Lions have them back into the NCAA Tournament picture.  Below is a table citing the record, conference record, RPI, and SOS of these teams:



TEAM         Record    (Big10)    RPI     SOS  

Michigan St   19-14         9-9          40          9

Michigan       20-13         9-9          50          17

Penn St         19-13         9-9          43          5

Illinois           19-13         9-9          44         16



Kalin Lucas revived the
Spartans against Purdue



Michigan St - Considered a bubble team entering the Big Ten Tournament, the Spartans proceeded to defeat Iowa and then shocked Purdue.  Although the record isn't very impressive, wins vs. Pac Ten Champion Washington, @ Oakland, vs. Wisconsin, vs. Penn St, and vs. Purdue are wins against tournament teams.  These wins and a strong reputation should be enough to propel Michigan State into the tournament.

Expected seed: #9 seed

Michigan - considering the Wolverines began Big Ten play with a 1-6 record and they lost their top two players from last season, no one expected Michigan to finish the season like they did.  Michigan picked up key wins vs and @ Michigan St, @ Clemson, vs. and @ Penn St, vs. Oakland, and vs. Harvard (who in my opinion should make the NCAA tourney as an at large).  Although the Wolverines have not defeated any top-25 teams, they lost to Kansas in OT and to Syracuse by only three and closed the season with statement wins against Michigan St and Illinois.  Michigan plays most teams tough, and should earn a low seed in the NCAA tournament.

Expected seed: #10 seed

Talor Battle led Penn St
to victories over
Wisconsin and MSU,
revitalizing their NCAA
tourney resume.

Penn St - like Michigan, Penn St was out of the NCAA tourney picture for a while but resurfaced with several strong wins in the Big Ten tournament.  If Penn St beats Ohio St tomorrow afternoon, they will be an automatic qualifier, but assuming they don't I still think they can make it in.  Two wins against both Michigan St and Wisconsin are Penn St.'s most valuable assets, as they played a pretty weak non-conference schedule.  Fortunately for them, the bubble is pretty weak this year and the committee should take note of Penn St winning seven of their last nine games.

Expected seed: #11 seed

Illinois - Illinois is the odd-man out of this group.  This team had high expectations at the beginning of the season, but has struggled down the stretch.  Illinois lost to Michigan in it's only game of the Big Ten tournament, and lost four of it's last six games.  However, Illinois won vs. UNC, vs. Oakland, vs. Wisconsin, vs Michigan St, and vs Michigan.  These are all quality wins against tournament teams, but will the selection committee forget about these considering many of them were early in the season?  Although most analysts are skeptical toward Illinois, I think they will make it in.       Expected seed: # 11 seed

Cheer up Spartan Fans!

Ranked #2 in the nation to begin the season, Michigan State's season has been disappointing, disappointing being an understatement.  Currently sporting a 14-11 overall record, and a 6-7 clip in Big Ten play, the Spartans have slipped into unfamiliar territory and are in danger of missing the NCAA tournament.  Losses to traditional Big Ten bottom-feeders such as Michigan and Iowa were unacceptable, but besides that the Spartans have played a very strong schedule this year.  Lets take a look at the teams Michigan State has lost to this season and their rankings:

Michigan State Spartans
14-11 (6-7) RPI = 46  SOS = 5

   Date        Opponent         Score         Ranking  
11/23          UConn            70-67         #13
12/1             Duke              84-79         #5
12/7           Syracuse           72-58        #17
12/22           Texas             67-55         #3
1/8              Penn St.           66-62        N/R
1/18             Illinois             71-62         N/R
1/22             Purdue            86-76        #11
1/27            Michigan          61-57        N/R
2/2                Iowa              72-52        N/R
2/6              Wisconsin        82-56        #10
2/15            Ohio St            71-61        #2

Clearly Michigan State has played against many tough opponents, and can flaunt a win against #10 Wisconsin to the NCAA tourney committee as a quality win.  In most years, a team with a 14-11 record would have little chance to make the NCAA tournament, however, this year the bubble is very weak.  The addition of three more teams to the tournament is a boon to teams looking for at large bids.  These bids seem to be up for grabs for middle-feeders of the top conferences like the Big Ten, Big East, Big 12, ACC.  Play-in games now exist for seeds other then #16, a huge bonus for Michigan State.  The remaining schedule for the Spartans is shown below, along with my predictions for each game:

Date    Opponent   W/L
2/19    vs. Illinois     W  - The Illini are reeling and Demetri McCamey is struggling, Spartans win this one
2/22   @ Minnesota L  -  A balanced Gophers team exacts revenge from Decembers matchup @ the Bres
2/27    vs. Purdue    L - State cant handle an elite Purdue team looking to solidify a strong NCAA seed
3/2      vs. Iowa       W - Spartans crush an Iowa team that they played their worst game of the year against
3/5     @ Michigan  W  - State beats a tough Michigan team on the road to give it hope for an NCAA tournament birth.

Final Record: 17-13 (8-8)

An NCAA birth will hinge on Michigan State's success in the Big Ten Tournament.  If Michigan St can make it to the final of the Big Ten Tournament, I am certain they will lock up an NCAA birth. Semifinals? Most likely?  Quarterfinals? Don't count on it.  However, this Michigan State team seems to have the resolve to win when it matters most, as State has performed quite well in it's overtime games earlier this season.  Expect to see Kalin Lucas and the Spartans making noise in the month of March again this year, even if it won't be at the Final Four like many expected.

Update on Patriots-Jets: The end of a streak... and Wide Left!

Well... All good things must come to an end, and Tom Brady's streak of pass attempts without an interception just did. At least he was intercepted by former Michigan Wolverine David Harris!  Tom Brady had not thrown an interception since Week 6 against Baltimore, a span of 12 games and 323 pass attempts.  However, Brady and the Patriots looked pretty good on their opening drive despite one errant pass.  The combination of the 'Law Firm' and a 'Woodland Creature' running the football has been pretty effective, and should set up some pass plays later in the game.  Tom Brady is blessed with so many weapons on this football team, and is not limited to Wes Welker, Deion Branch, Brandon Tate, Sam Aiken, Julian Edelman, Rob Gronkowski, Aaron Hernandez, Alge Crumpler, etc.  Expect Brady to keep spread the ball around throughout the game. 

I am currently sporting my new Tom Brady shirt, which I received as a Christmas present from my wonderful girlfriend.  We will see whether this shirt is good or bad luck for the Patriots... who just went up 3-0 following a missed field goal by Nick Folk with a made kick of their own by Shayne Graham...

Doing Away with the Leaders and Legends Divisions: A Solution to a Presumptuous Proposition

Today Big Ten Commisioner Jim Delaney announced that the Big Ten would keep the original football division names decided on December 16th: The Leaders Division and the Legends Division.  Seriously? How arrogant and pompous can you be Mr. Delany?  Keep in mind the Big Ten has not won a National Title since Ohio State did so in 2002, and that traditional powers such as Michigan and Penn St have struggled as of late.  Although the name accounts for the many iconic coaches and athletes that played in the Big Ten, it is far too broad and could be used for many conferences. 

Besides the distasteful name, I see one other glaring flaw in the division scheduling: the rivalries!  Below is a chart, courtesy of Wikipedia that displays the rivalries scheduled to be played each year:

Legends Division        Leaders Division 


Minnesota - Wisconsin 59–52–8       Michigan - Ohio State 57–44–6

Northwestern - Illinois 46–52–5        Iowa - Purdue 33–45–3

Michigan State - Indiana 41–15–2     Nebraska - Penn State 6–7–0

              Overall Inter-Divisional Record 242–214–24

A glaring problem is the rivalries "established" between Michigan St and Indiana, Iowa and Purdue, and Penn St and Nebraska.  Iowa's main rivals seem to be Wisconsin and Illinois, although Northwestern has had their number lately and lies in the same state as Illinois.  In my opinion,  Iowa-Nebraska, Michigan St-Penn St, and Indiana-Purdue would make much more sense.  Iowa and Nebraska are regional rivals considering the large border they share, Michigan St and Penn St have been playing on the last Saturday of the year since Penn St joined the Big Ten, and is always a competitive football game.  Indiana and Purdue are in the same state, yet neither has been historically good at football.  Both lack a strong rival so pairing these two together seems necessary.  Would this mean a division realignment? Yes, as Nebraska and Iowa are currently in the same division, as well as Indiana and Purdue.  Lets take a look at the Brereton Proviso, which includes renaming both divisions.

Ford Division             Owens Division
Michigan                                          Ohio St
Minnesota                                        Wisconsin
Northwestern                                   Illinois
Nebraska                                         Iowa
Michigan St                                      Penn St
Indiana                                             Purdue

Improvements from the previous model include:
(1) Better regional rivalries
(2) Better division names, Why not honor two of the most influential people of the 20th century, Gerald Ford and Jesse Owens, as opposed to looking like a conference full of arrogance? 
(3) Fair scheduling.  Although the Owens division may be a little bit stronger, the traditional power of Michigan, Ohio St, Nebraska, and Penn St are spread out evenly among the two divisions.

Lets be honest. The Big Ten is all about upholding tradition and excellence.  Lets not let our division names do the talking.  These improvements would honor our predecessors, allow for better rivalries, and let the Big Ten focus on what it does best, playing great football!

Michigan Hires Who? A Report on Brady Hoke

Last week, the Rich Rodriguez era ended at the University of Michigan. For many fans, this era was a dark time. A 15-22 record, 6-21 within the Big Ten, 0-1 in bowl games, and most importantly, 0-3 against Ohio State. The allegations against the program for practice violations cast a dark shadow on Rodriguez and his staff, along with the dismissals of highly touted players like Demar Dorsey and Justin Feagin. Seeing former Michigan players blossom at other schools sickens me, as Ryan Mallett, Steven Threet, and Justin Boren are all excelling at Arkansas, Arizona St, and Ohio St, respectively because they did not want to play for Rich Rod.

However, after attempting to lure Jim Harbaugh and Les Miles to return to their alma maters but coming ouy empty handed, Brady Hoke was hired today. For those of you who don't know about Brady Hoke, below is his coaching resume:

• 1983 - Grand Valley State - Defensive Line
• 1984-1986 - Western Michigan - Defensive Line
• 1987-1989 - Toledo - Linebackers
• 1989-1994 - Oregon State - Defensive Line
• 1995-2002 - Michigan - Defensive Line
• 2003-2008 - Ball St
• 2009-2010 - San Diego St
• 2011 - Michigan

Several things jump out from this list. First, he is part of the Michigan family, as he coached the Defensive Line for eight seasons. Second, he has had some success turning around teams in non-BCS conferences. Ball St went from a perennial loser to a Top-25 team for some of 2008, as Hoke's Cardinals, quarterbacked by Nate Davis, went undefeated until losing to Buffalo in the MAC title game. From Ball St, Hoke went on to San Diego State in the Mountain West, and they went from a 4-8 record in his first season to 9-4 his past year, with all their losses coming to bowl teams in Missouri, BYU, TCU, and Utah. San Diego St only lost to TCU by five points at TCU, an impressive achievement considering how strong a program TCU was this year. Hoke's SDSU Aztecs defeated Navy 35-14 in the Poinsettia Bowl.


These achievements should not go unnoticed, but is Hoke ready to coach a premier football program like the University of Michigan? He has never been a head coach in a BCS conference before and has a losing career record. However, he has turned around two programs that have traditionally been terrible. Also, he will have to adjust the Michigan program to his style of football. This may marginalize the value of players that were integral to the team's success during the Rich Rodriguez era, specifically Denard Robinson. It will be interesting to see how Brady Hoke takes the reins of the Michigan football program, and I hope that he can get the players he needs quickly to run his system and return Michigan to its place as a premier college football program.