Winning: Chad Ochocinco

I've decided to incorporate a new weekly post titled 'Winning.'  These posts will reflect on athletes and their Q-ratings.  So without further adieu, who better to start with then Mr. Chad Ochocinco!

Ochocinco has done an impressive job branding himself as much more than just a Wide Receiver for the Cincinnati Bengals.  Most recently, Ochocinco tried out for Sporting Kansas City of the MLS, formerly the Kansas City Wizards.  Suprisingly, Ochocinco was rewarded a spot on their reserve team, although designated as an 'honorary member of the team' by Manager Peter Vermes.  Considering reserve teams for most squads like these feature young players who are working towards making the first team, it's surprising they would offer a spot to a player with zero chance of making the actual roster.  However, this is where the Q-rating and celebrity status of an athlete like Ochocinco comes into play.  The publicity in this relationship is beneficial to both parties. 

Part-time football player, full time entrepreneur

Ochocinco gets media coverage for trying to make the jump to professional soccer, and  the MLS gets increased recognition through the courtship of a star athlete.  Michelle Kaufman of the Miami Herald sums it up by stating, "Ochocinco usually draws eye rolls with his publicity stunts, but this one makes sense from his end."  On point with the second part, but eye rolls? How about rolls of bills!  This guy reaps profits from people pointing and laughing at him!  Ochocinco ranked as the 5th most hated athlete in a study done by the Q-Scores company, yet why should people hate him?  His contemporaries on that list include mega-stars with a bad rap sheet such as Michael Vick, Tiger Woods, and Ben Roethlisberger. Ochocinco happens to market himself so well that ESPN and other sports networks and sites happen to catch them all.  He was recently rated the '2nd most powerful Twitter user' by researchers at Twitalyzer. Twitalyzer measures influence by how people shape the conversation on Twitter, in terms of being mentioned and having their own tweets re-tweeted, and not just how many followers a tweeter reaches. So Ochocinco, whose Twitter account features breaking stories from the Ochocinco News Network, is more influential on Twitter than celebrities like Lady Gaga and Justin Bieber, who have far more followers than he does.  Ochocinco was also featured on 'Dancing with the Stars' and his own reality tv show: Ochocinco: The Ultimate Catch on VH1.

Now that Ochocinco is such a figure in the social media community, what prompted his rise?  Touchdown celebrations!  I'll let you watch them as opposed to describing them myself, but the publicity he gains from them are substantial.  I'm interested in calculating the opportunity cost of the fines he receives for his on-field antics compared to the profits he gains from the increase in publicity.  The way the media covers him, they are basically encouraging him to disobey NFL rules because its beneficial to his bank account!

Heat-Pistons Game, What a Birthday Present!

This past Wednesday, March 23rd I had the pleasure of attending the Detroit Pistons vs Miami Heat game at the Palace of Auburn Hills with Marilynn.  She purchased us tickets to the game as a birthday present to me, and damn was it a treat! 

Although Howard didn't play, he
seemed to be in high spirits!

We got to the Palace @ approximately 6 pm right when the doors opened, Marilynn sporting her LeBron shirt, while I rocked the D-Wade gear.  We were really eager to get to our seats, as Marilynn came through big time and got us tickets in the sixth row from the floor!  Considering I had never been that close to the floor at a sporting event before (Okemos High School basketball games don't count) I was quite excited.  We get down to our seats, and we had an excellent view of the Miami Heat bench.  Perfect! I would have the chance to see, in person, how much Chris Bosh resembles a dinosaur!  As we settle in we get to see Juwan Howard warming up, and even though he hasn't made an impact in the NBA since I was in middle school, I appreciate what he has done for the game as an alumnus of my Michigan Wolverines and as a member of the Fab Five.  Howard greeted every player on both teams like they were an old friend, and mingled with Pistons staff.  Clearly he is well-liked around the league and knows a plethora of people considering he has been playing in the NBA since 1994!

Around 7:15 the Heat come out to warm up.  Marilynn's favorite player is LeBron James, so naturally she was really geeked to seem him play and just observe his mannerisms from up close.  James was all fun & games during warm up, and the Heat looked like they have truly bonded as a team.  On another note, LeBron and Dwyane Wade look a lot more muscular on television. Up close LeBron's legs didn't look as thick or powerful as I expected. Following the warm-up, the crowd proceeded to boo LeBron during pregame introductions.  I understand that LeBron is a pretty polarizing figure, but shouldn't Pistons fans be happy that he isn't playing for Cleveland anymore?  The Cavaliers are one of the Piston's rivals, thus the Pistons should be content that they can beat up on the Cavs again for the first time since 2003. 

The game itself was really enjoyable!  The Pistons shot over 50% from the field up until the fourth quarter, when the Heat seemed to focus more on their defense.  The Heat ended up winning 100-94, starting the fourth quarter on a 15-0 and never relinquishing their lead, and you can find the box score here. Below are some quick observations and analyses from the game:

(1) Greg Monroe is a budding star: Yes, this comment may be a bit premature, but take a look at his stat line from this game and his statistics since the All-Star break.

Expect big things in the future from
Rookie Greg Monroe

March 23rd vs Miami Heat: 35 min, 14 pts, 12 rbs (5 orbs), 2 ast, 2 stl, 2 to, +/- = +9
Averages in March: 32.3 mpg, 13.4 ppg, .573 fg%, 9.3 rpg, 2.0 apg, 1.8 stlpg

Monroe has been very productive since taking over for Ben Wallace, and his statistics don't support how well he played against Miami wednesday night.  Monroe was dominant on the boards due to his superior athleticism and positioning.  Expect him to develop into one of the best centers in the Eastern Conference over the upcoming year's.

(2) The Heatles can coexist peacefully: there seems to be an equal distribution of plays ran for each player, and all three are above-average passers for their position.  I was particularly impressed with Chris Bosh's vision and agility in this game.  He has really quick post moves and his mid-range jumper is excellent for a player his size.  What Bosh gives up on the boards he more then makes up for with his passing and shooting.  Marilynn did point out that he looks more awkward up close then on the television, an assertion I agree with, but clearly he knows his role in the Miami Heat offense.  Wade and LeBron seemed to fade in and out of the game, as the motion in the Heat offense isn't the most effective.  Sometimes you could predict which of them would take it to the whole, but regardless of who did obviously both are great at drawing double-teams and getting fouled.  Once the motion in the Heat offense improves, both LeBron and Wade could get more open looks. 

(3) Rip still has it, and Stuckey sucks!:  Richard Hamilton provided the Pistons with the shooting touch they were looking for when they signed Tracy McGrady.  Playing McGrady at the point forced the Heat to put their smallest defender on Hamilton, who capitalized on some open looks on the baseline.  As weird as it seemed that the Pistons most effective lineup was McGrady-Hamilton-Prince-Monroe-Wilcox, with no true ballhandler in the game, it seemed to work well on both ends of the floor.  Also, Rodney Stuckey IS NOT the answer at Point Guard for the Pistons.  Not only was he boo'd, but also his shot selection was suspect.  At times he made some flashy plays, but at other moments he looked lost or stuck, hehe. 

Look at these
little ballers!

(4) LeBron's kids are really cute: LeBron's fiancee and kids had courtside seats next to the Heat bench for this game.  During timeouts LeBron would sometimes go over to talk with his children, and after the game his kids starting running around the floor.  Both Marilynn and I wonder if they know how famous their father is, but they really seemed to enjoy themselves!

Overall, it was a great game to watch and a great experience.  The Pistons kept up with the Heat for most of the game, which I did not expect.  Most of all, it was a great birthday gift to me, and my girlfriend got to see her favorite athlete up-close.  Can the Heat progress to the point that they can compete with the Bulls and the Celtics come playoff time? I am excited to find out!

NCAA Tournament Reflections Thus Far: Parity defies Tradition

This past week I had the pleasure of returning to Williamston/Okemos/East Lansing for my spring break.  When I returned home from the airport, I made my way to my room upstairs.  An NCAA tourney bracket I had filled out in 2006 remained on my bulletin board!  It had UConn and Duke playing in the final with UConn winning the whole tournament.  If you were unaware, this team boasted future NBA players Rudy Gay, Jeff Adrien, Hilton Armstrong, Marcus Williams, Josh Boone, and AJ Price.  After perusing through the bracket, I chuckled at how poorly I had predicted the Final Four.  I had George Mason losing to Michigan St in the 1st round and Florida losing to Ohio St in the Sweet 16; those teams ended up meeting in the Final Four!  The only team I correctly predicted to make the Final Four was UCLA.  Little did I know that that bracket would closely resemble this year's...

Each year I ponder whether I should try to create an algorithm to predict the winner of the NCAA tournament.  In the past I've been able to predict the winning team about 50% of the time.  Since I started intensely following college basketball in 2003, I've predicted the winner correctly with UConn in 2004, UNC in 2005, Florida, in 2007, Kansas in 2008, and UNC in 2009.  I feel like two characteristics stick out in teams that win the NCAA tourney.  These may seem obvious, but nonetheless are important:

(1) Many future NBA players on the team:

Joakim Noah and co. powered Florida
to two NCAA titles.

Florida's whole starting five from the 2006-2007 championship teams made the NBA: Corey Brewer, Joakim Noah, Al Horford, Taureen Grean and Lee Humphrey (briefly), and Maurice Speights off the bench.

Kansas's core from the 2008 championship team: Darrell Arthur, Cole Aldrich, Mario Chalmers, Brandon Rush, Sherron Collins, and Darnell Jackson all made it into the NBA.

(2) Strong inside presence:
UConn's 2004 championship team:
Emeka Okafor - 6'9
Hilton Armstrong - 6'10
Josh Boone - 6'10
Charlie Villanueva - 6'10

UNC's 2005 championship team:
Jawad Williams - 6'9
Marvin Williams - 6'9
Damian Grant - 6'11
Sean May - 6'9

Kyle Singler and a star-studded Duke
squad couldn't make it past
the Sweet 16

This year I filled out four brackets, and based my winner's on both these categories.  Therefore, I had Ohio St winning in one of my brackets, as they have a strong inside presence with Jared Sullinger and Dallas Lauderdale, as well as future pro prospects on the wings including Jon Diebler, William Buford and David Lighty in addition to Sullinger.  I also had Duke winning in two of my brackets, as Nolan Smith, Kyle Singler, Seth Curry, Kyrie Irving, and Andre Dawkins are arguably pro prospects and the Plumlee brothers are serviceable in the low post.  In another bracket I had Kansas winning, as Markieff and Marcus Morris are NBA-caliber forwards, and Josh Selby and Tyshawn Taylor are pro prospects as well.  Clearly none of these teams panned out.  But do Butler, VCU, UConn and Kentucky/UNC defy my formula?

VCU definitely defies the formula for a tournament winning team.  This team shoots an abundance of three-pointers, starts three guards 6-6 or shorter, and lacks a scoring big.  VCU shot 12-25 from beyond the arc to beat Kansas today, while playing four guards for most of the game. 

Butler sports a tough big and NBA prospect with Matt Howard, along with future NBA player Shelden Mack.  Although this team may come across is a pretty average team, they are fundamentally strong, and have played together for a long time as the top players on the team are all juniors and seniors.  This team just flat out knows how to win, and has a girth of tournament experience with most its players returning from last year's NCAA Title game run. 

Can Brandon Knight lead a young
but talented Kentucky team to
the NCAA title?

Kentucky and UNC are packed with future pro's.  It's no surprise that these two teams are competing for a birth in the Final Four, as there is an impeccable amount of talent on the court in this game.  Carolina has a strong inside presence with John Henson and Tyler Zeller, and Harrison Barnes will be a star at the next level.  Kentucky sports Brandon Knight, Terrence Jones, Darius Miller, and DeAndre Liggins, who should translate to the next level.  The winner of this game should, in my opinion, win the NCAA title unless...

...UConn can defeat the winner of this game.  Kemba Walker is a superstar, and freshman Jeremy Lamb, Tyler Olander, and Shabazz Napier are all potential NBA prospects, in addition to sophomore Alex Oriakhi.  This team is young, but has been riding Kemba Walker to the Final Four. 
We will see how far Kemba can take them, maybe all the way to the title.

So this year parity has defied tradition on the road to the Final Four, no #1 or #2 seeds made the Final Four, and a #11 seed will be playing a #8 for the chance to play for the NCAA Championship.  Traditional powers have fallen to young upstarts and mid-majors.  Check back later in the week for previews of the Final Four.  And although my brackets have crumbled apart this year, it's great to see parity in college basketball!!

Bubble Results: A Critique

The NCAA tournament never comes and goes without complaints, and Selection Sunday is the day where 'Bubble Teams' can complain about the injustices they experienced by failing to make the tournament.  For most of these teams, winning one more game or playing a slightly tougher schedule would have made the difference between making the tournament and heading to the NIT.  A perennial member of this 'Bubble Team' category is Seth Greenberg's Virginia Tech Hokies, who have been snubbed of a NCAA birth the past two years.  Along with them, several other teams feel like they were 'snubbed' from the NCAA tourney.  Lets take a look at what I believe to be three teams that don't deserve a birth, and three teams that should be in the tournament:

Should Be Out:

The Trojans found a way to make it back
to the NCAA tournament!

USC Trojans - 19-14, 10-8 Pac Ten.   This USC team played an interesting non-conference schedule, losing to some very poor teams and beating some strong ones.  Losses to Rider, Bradley, and TCU are inexcusable, and losing at home to Oregon in conference play was a bad loss as well.  However, the Trojans did beat Texas and Tennessee.  Should those non-conference wins have been sufficient to put a team with an RPI of 67 into the tournament? Probably not, considering how soft the Pac-Ten is as a conference.  USC should be taking its 19-14 record to the NIT this week.

Great jerseys, but they lack
a solid non-conference resume

Marquette - 20-14, 9-9 Big East.  The Golden Eagles were horrible in their non-conference schedule, and must have snuck into the tournament by winning two games in the Big East tournament.  Marquette did not defeat one Top-50 opponent in non-conference play, and it's only key road win against a strong team was at Connecticut.  I feel like they received this birth based on reputation and past performance, as Marquette generally wins a game or two in the tournament.  Teams like Colorado and Virginia Tech beat better teams and would have been more competitive then this Marquette squad.

Florida St - 21-10, 11-5 ACC.  Although the Seminoles finished with a strong record in ACC play, its worth pointing out that they only have two wins against tournament teams this season, at home to Duke and to Clemson.  Florida St has an RPI of 55, which one would think is good enough to land them a spot in the tournament, but their non-conference schedule was weak in that they didn't beat any tournament teams.  Losing three of it's last five games, including losses to Maryland and Virginia Tech shows that the Seminoles are trending downward and should disappoint in the NCAA tournament.


Should Be In:
Saint Mary's Gaels - 23-8, 11-3 West Coast Conference. Saint Mary's assembled a strong record in conference play and built a RPI of 48.  This team also defeated a Top-25 team in St. Johns, one more top-25 team then either Michigan or Clemson defeated all season.  Although the SOS was 105, the RPI says it all that Saint Mary's would have been a decent tournament team. Their performance in the tournament last year proves that they can make some noise in the NCAA tournament, and it's disappointing to see them headed to the NIT this year.

Colorado Buffaloes - 20-13, 8-8 Big 12 Conference.  Colorado ammased wins against Kansas St, three times, and Texas.  They also finished .500 in conference play.  A .500 record in-conference was enough to get Michigan, Michigan St, Illinois, and Penn St into the tournament, so why not a Colorado team with more wins against the Top-25 then any one of those teams?  Yes the Buffaloes did play a weak non-conference schedule and had a less-then-ideal RPI, but those wins had to count for something.  Guess they weren't enough...



Tommy Amaker's Crimson should de dancing,
 but instead will be playing in the NIT


Harvard Crimson - 23-6, 12-2 Ivy League.  Harvard ammased a strong resume this season, with going undefeated at home, and only losing one game to a non-NCAA tourney team (rival Yale).  Tommy Amaker's club defeated Colorado and Princeton, as well as a Boston College team that barely missed out on the tournament.  With an RPI of 35, it's hard to swallow how the Tigers didn't make the tourney. However, their SOS of 140 was a glaring weakness which the Selection Committee must have focused heavily on.

Hope you are filling out your bracket(s) as the tournament begins tomorrow.  Check back soon for previews of each region and the first weekend of games!

Who can win it all? Eight teams that could win the NCAA tournament

Like most sports fans at this time of year, I've caught college basketball fever.  The NBA and NHL are at somewhat of a lull at this time of year, as the playoffs do not start for another month or so, and the MLB season is just around the corner, so naturally March Madness is something to get excited about!  It's almost time to start filling out brackets and throwing money into NCAA pools with your friends, family, and co-workers.  That also means it's almost time to start lamenting about how your sister, girlfriend, or woman at the desk next to you picked a better bracket then you because she picked zero upsets or liked the colors a team wore or a spelling of a team's name.  However, I hope that I can give you the lowdown on teams that have a chance to win this tournament.  Teams will be placed into three categories: Favorites, Contenders and Darkhorses.

Favorites

David Lights seeks the NCAATitle
 that eluded him as a freshman

#1 Ohio State University - This team has gelled around the emergence of standout freshman Jared Sullinger.  An experienced supporting cast including Jon Diebler, William Buford, Dallas Lauderdale, and David Lighty makes the Buckeyes, in my opinion a favorite to win this tournament.  Lighty has been to the Final Four before, as he was a freshman on the Buckeye's team with Greg Oden, Mike Conley Jr, and DaeQuan Cook that lost to Florida in the NCAA Tourney final back in 2007.  Freshman Aaron Craft plays big minutes for this team and leads the team in assists.  In addition to Craft, fellow freshman Deshaun Thomas and Jordan Sibert also contribute.  Expect this Buckeyes to be a lock for the Final Four, and have a chance at winning it all!

#2 University of Kansas - The Jayhawks lost arguably their top three players from last season and are still in the mix for the national title.  Although Cole Aldrich, Sherron Collins, and Xavier Henry left for the NBA, this Kansas team has carved out an impressive resume and should be looking to avenge their poor performance in the NCAA Tournament last year.  The Morris brothers, Markieff and Marcus headline a talented roster that scores 82 ppg.  Tyshawn Taylor, Brady Morningstar, Tyrel Reed, and freshman Josh Selby gives this Kansas team a talented roster that can put up a lot of points.  The Jayhawks have not lost a game in a month and are heading into the NCAA Tournament on a hot streak.  Although Kansas does have a habit of losing early round games, expect this team to ride to the Final Four and maybe the title if they don't get tripped up early on.

Nolan Smith and Duke
hope to repeat!

#5 Duke University - Fresh of their third straight ACC Tournament victory, the Duke Blue Devils looked really impressive against an improving North Carolina time that should be a #2 seed in the NCAA Tournament.  Kyle Singler and Nolan Smith captain the Blue Devil ship that includes strong role players such as Andre Dawkins and Seth Curry, who are deadly from behind the arc.  Ryan Kelly is a hybrid big man / outside shooter, and the Plumlee brothers provide a strong presence down low.  Some may stereotype Duke as a team that lives and dies by the three ball, but this team is solid in all facets of the game.  Expect Duke to make another run to the Final Four and possibly the title game, although there is a slight chance they get tripped up by a team with superior athleticism and strength down low like a Syracuse.

Contenders

Harrison Barnes and the Tar Heels
ended the regular sesaon strong
and could put together a
deep run in the NCAA tourney

#7 North Carolina - wow has this team grown up throughout the season!  Led by superstar freshman Harrison Barnes this team closed the season strong, with its only two losses in the past two months being against Duke.  Tyler Zeller and John Henson create a strong presence in the paint that will only get stronger, and a core of Dexter Strickland, Leslie McDonald, and Kendall Marshall at the guard positions gives UNC strong athleticism.  This team is not very good from behind the arc, which in my opinion makes the difference between a Favorite and a Contender for the NCAA title.  However, Barnes and Marshall do have the ability to hit threes as well as Reggie Bullock off the bench.  This team has unlimited potential and plays beyond its year's but it may be too soon to put this team in the NCAA title game, but with such a girth of talent you never now.  The Final Four is realistic for this group as it has improved dramatically throughout the year.

#10 University of Texas - After watching this team tear apart Michigan St this past December I knew this Texas team was special.  Considering they are an extremely athletic squad, it's no surprise that they are top-five in the nation in rebounding.  This team is led by swingman Jordan Hamilton, forward Gary Johnson, and super freshman Tristan Thompson.  Point Guard Cory Joseph is an accomplished freshman and handles very well for a player his age.  Role players include J'Covan Brown and Dogus Balbay.  This team, like North Carolina, is pretty young, but athletic and talented enough to make a deep run in the tournament, maybe even to the title if everything goes right.  One red light for this Texas team: they are only 4-4 in their last eight games, and may be running out of steam heading into the tournament.  Expect this team to either bounce out early or make a very deep run.

#4 University of Pittsburgh - The Panthers have quietly amassed a 27-5 record and won the Big East title outright, despite a lack of superstar talent.  This team is very solid defensively and is one of the top rebounding teams in the nation.  Guard Ashton Gibbs leads a strong backcourt with senior Brad Wanamaker, and Gary McGhee is an excellent defender at Center.  Gilbert Brown is an experienced and well-rounded player at the 3, and role players Nasir Robinson, Travon Woodall, and Dante Taylor fill out the team.  This team isn't flashy, but knows how to win and has a lot of senior leadership.  The Panthers are well coached and primed to make a deep run in the NCAA tournament.  Not sure how this team would hold up against the likes of Ohio St or Duke, but you have to like their chances at making a run

Darkhorses
Before I mention these teams I want to say a few words about the term "darkhorse."  These teams are very good teams, but are considered darkhorses because they won't (assumedly) be receiving a #1 or #2 seed.  However, I think they have the drive and skill to play with the best teams in the nation and make a run.

Unbelievable? Walker and
UConn are Kemba-lievable!

#19 Connecticut - Ok, so maybe this team will be ranked five or six spots higher after their performance in the Big East tournament this week, but clearly there isn't a hotter team in college basketball right now.  Kemba Walker's performance throughout the Big East tournament was impressive, and that's an understatement.  He showed in the semifinal against Syracuse and final vs. Louisville that he is the top player in the country.  However, he also has a supporting cast that could take Connecticut on a ride to the NCAA Title.  Jeremy Lamb and Alex Oriakhi are strong contributors down low, and Shabazz Napier has impressed at point guard.  This team can go as far as Kemba can carry them, and the sky (NCAA Title) could be the limit if things continue to go well for this team

#11 Syracuse - The Orange started off the season hot, but were underwhelming throughout Big East play.  However, this team looked impressive against UConn Friday night, and I believe they have the necessary parts to give them a glimmer of hope to win the NCAA Tournament. Rick Jackson is a force in the paint, and Fab Melo continues to receive more playing time and develop on the inside.  Kris Joseph is versatile at forward and knows how to score, while Scoop Jardine (great name!) is clutch at the point guard position.  This team is pretty deep and explosive, and isn't afraid to shoot the trey, even though they don't shoot a very high percentage.  Strong rebounding and athleticism could take this team all the way, but they could falter early on as well as mistakes may plague them.

Brackets are available tonight so make sure you fill them out, and I hope you are as excited about the NCAA tournament as I am.  I will assuredly be filling out several different brackets, but within those brackets only teams mentioned here will be included in the Final Four.  Best of luck toeveryone with their brackets, and check back in a few days for more previews of the NCAA tourney.

Bubble Watch: Big Ten

Hey guys, back it at after a two-week hiatus!  Even though I was away, college basketball never left.  It's almost time for March Madness baby!!  Today I will be looking at the Big Ten conference, as it has four teams that finished with mediocre conference records that are considered 'on the bubble' by college basketball analysts for the upcoming NCAA Tournament.  In my opinion, these teams include: Michigan St, Michigan, Penn St, and Illinois.  One month ago, Illinois was expected to make the tournament while the other three teams were struggling.  However, late season pushes by the Spartans, Wolverines, and Nittany Lions have them back into the NCAA Tournament picture.  Below is a table citing the record, conference record, RPI, and SOS of these teams:



TEAM         Record    (Big10)    RPI     SOS  

Michigan St   19-14         9-9          40          9

Michigan       20-13         9-9          50          17

Penn St         19-13         9-9          43          5

Illinois           19-13         9-9          44         16



Kalin Lucas revived the
Spartans against Purdue



Michigan St - Considered a bubble team entering the Big Ten Tournament, the Spartans proceeded to defeat Iowa and then shocked Purdue.  Although the record isn't very impressive, wins vs. Pac Ten Champion Washington, @ Oakland, vs. Wisconsin, vs. Penn St, and vs. Purdue are wins against tournament teams.  These wins and a strong reputation should be enough to propel Michigan State into the tournament.

Expected seed: #9 seed

Michigan - considering the Wolverines began Big Ten play with a 1-6 record and they lost their top two players from last season, no one expected Michigan to finish the season like they did.  Michigan picked up key wins vs and @ Michigan St, @ Clemson, vs. and @ Penn St, vs. Oakland, and vs. Harvard (who in my opinion should make the NCAA tourney as an at large).  Although the Wolverines have not defeated any top-25 teams, they lost to Kansas in OT and to Syracuse by only three and closed the season with statement wins against Michigan St and Illinois.  Michigan plays most teams tough, and should earn a low seed in the NCAA tournament.

Expected seed: #10 seed

Talor Battle led Penn St
to victories over
Wisconsin and MSU,
revitalizing their NCAA
tourney resume.

Penn St - like Michigan, Penn St was out of the NCAA tourney picture for a while but resurfaced with several strong wins in the Big Ten tournament.  If Penn St beats Ohio St tomorrow afternoon, they will be an automatic qualifier, but assuming they don't I still think they can make it in.  Two wins against both Michigan St and Wisconsin are Penn St.'s most valuable assets, as they played a pretty weak non-conference schedule.  Fortunately for them, the bubble is pretty weak this year and the committee should take note of Penn St winning seven of their last nine games.

Expected seed: #11 seed

Illinois - Illinois is the odd-man out of this group.  This team had high expectations at the beginning of the season, but has struggled down the stretch.  Illinois lost to Michigan in it's only game of the Big Ten tournament, and lost four of it's last six games.  However, Illinois won vs. UNC, vs. Oakland, vs. Wisconsin, vs Michigan St, and vs Michigan.  These are all quality wins against tournament teams, but will the selection committee forget about these considering many of them were early in the season?  Although most analysts are skeptical toward Illinois, I think they will make it in.       Expected seed: # 11 seed