Update on Patriots-Jets: The end of a streak... and Wide Left!

Well... All good things must come to an end, and Tom Brady's streak of pass attempts without an interception just did. At least he was intercepted by former Michigan Wolverine David Harris!  Tom Brady had not thrown an interception since Week 6 against Baltimore, a span of 12 games and 323 pass attempts.  However, Brady and the Patriots looked pretty good on their opening drive despite one errant pass.  The combination of the 'Law Firm' and a 'Woodland Creature' running the football has been pretty effective, and should set up some pass plays later in the game.  Tom Brady is blessed with so many weapons on this football team, and is not limited to Wes Welker, Deion Branch, Brandon Tate, Sam Aiken, Julian Edelman, Rob Gronkowski, Aaron Hernandez, Alge Crumpler, etc.  Expect Brady to keep spread the ball around throughout the game. 

I am currently sporting my new Tom Brady shirt, which I received as a Christmas present from my wonderful girlfriend.  We will see whether this shirt is good or bad luck for the Patriots... who just went up 3-0 following a missed field goal by Nick Folk with a made kick of their own by Shayne Graham...

Drivin toward in-game reflections plus a recap of yesterday's playoff games.

Hey guys, welcome back to the blog.  Today I am going to do some in-game reflections of the Patriots-Jets game, which starts at 4:30 ET / 3: 30 CT.  Considering my love for former Michigan Wolverine Tom Brady, I will be analyzing his play throughout the game!  Yesterday I received a comment that I forgot to mention Tom Brady in my blog about the Patriots-Jets and Bears-Seahawks matchups.  Thanks to Marilynn for pointing that out, as it was unjust of me to neglect my favorite player! (ps. I am wearing my Tom Brady shirt right now!)  Anyways, yesterday's football games were great to watch!  The Ravens-Steelers game will certainly be discussed for a long time, as the Steelers came out with such intensity in the second half.  Like I predicted in my blog on Friday, superior Quarterback play from Ben Roethlisberger helped lead the Steelers to victory, while some mistakes by Joe Flacco doomed the Ravens.  This was the same case for the Packers-Falcons game later last night, as Aaron Rodgers played a phenomenal game while Matt Ryan threw some suspect passes. Lets take a look at each quarterbacks respective statlines:

                               C/ATT   YDS   AVG   TD   INT   RATING
Ben Roethlisberger    19/32     226     7.1      2        0         101.8
Joe Flacco                16/30     125     4.2      1        1          61.1
Aaron Rodgers          31/36     366    10.2     3       0          136.8
Matt Ryan                 20/29     186     6.4      1        2         69.0

Ben Roethlisberger and Aaron Rodgers both posted at least 100 yards passing and 40 points more in passer rating than their respective opposing quarterbacks, Joe Flacco and Matt Ryan.  Aaron Rodgers performance is especially significant, considering he led the Packers to only 17 points last month against Atlanta and had not won a playoff game until this year.  Looks like the Packers made a great decision getting rid of Brett Favre and installing this guy into the offense.  Besides, it's too cold to text a lot in Green Bay anways!

Check back here soon for your updates on the Patriots-Jets game!  I'm sure Rex Ryan is rooting for a lot of punting, as he likes players with good feet, like this guy, whose name is more synonomous with 'Dude? Where's my Car?' than football!

         

Playoffs! Take 2!

Thanks to those who read yesterday's blog predicting who would win today's football games between Baltimore and Pittsburgh, and Atlanta and Green Bay.  At this time Baltimore is up 21-7 at haltime, who would have guessed that?  Baltimore has not scored 21 points in its last five meetings with Pittsburgh, yet is has 21 at halftime.  Looks like my 24-13 prediction in favor of Pittsburgh will not work out, but Pittsburgh could mount a comeback to win this game.  Never count Ben Roethlisberger out in the playoffs.  He is a proven winner.

Anyways, today I focus on the New England Patriots vs New York Jets and Seattle Seahawks vs Chicago Bears games.  The Patriots enter this game sporting an eight game winning streak, inculding a 45-3 stomping of the Jets on December 6th.  The Jets are fresh off a thrilling 17-16 victory over the Indianapolis Colts, yet lost three of their last five regular season games, including a 38-34 loss at Chicago, 10-6 loss at home to Miami, and the aformentioned loss to the Patriots.   They did pick up a big win @ the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 15, so maybe that win coupled with last weeks can motivate the Jets to put their best foot, sorry Rex, forward against the Patriots tomorrow.  I looked at quarterbacks in yesterday's game (ironic that Joe Flacco threw a pick right as I wrote this), so today I'll look at defense as a predictor of who will win these games, starting with the Jets and their games against the Patriots and in the playoffs over the past two years.

Team Opp  Year  YA  Int FF FR Sk PA  W/L
NY Jets    Patriots    2009       299      1        0       0      0       9          W
NY Jets @Patriots    2009       410      0        2       1      2      31          L
NY Jets    Bengals    2009       281      1        2       1      3      14         W
NY Jets @Chargers 2009       344      2        2       0      2      14         W
NY Jets @Colts       2009       461      0        2       1      2      30         L
NY Jets    Patriots    2010       291      2        1       1      1      14         W
NY Jets  @Patriots  2010       405      0        0       0       3     45         L
NY Jets  @Colts     2010       312      0        0        0      1      16         W

Patriots   @Jets        2009       254      0        2       0       2      16         L
Patriots       Jets        2009       226      4        1       1       2      14         W
Patriots      Ravens    2009       268      1        1       1      0       33         L
Patriots   @Jets        2010       336      0         0       0      3      28         L
Patriots       Jets        2010       301      3        1       0       1      3           W

A glaring statistic from this data is the difference between the Jets defensive performance at home and at the Patriots.  In both games at the Patriots the past two years, the Jets have allowed over 400 yards and given up at least thirty points.  In two losses to the Jets in 2009 and 2010, the points the Patriots gave up was 28.  One can expect this game to be closer than last months encounter, but the Jets don't have an answer for the Patriots offense on the road.

Make it:  Patriots 34   Jets 17

Like the Patriots and Jets, the Seahawks and Bears have already played this season, resulting in a 23-20 for the Seahawks @ Soldier Field.  Is this Week 6 matchup indicative of how both these teams are playing today? No.  Should it give Seattle even more confidence coming off its win against the New Orleans Saints? Yes.  However, playing in Chicago is totally different then in Seattle.  Lets take a look at Matt Hasselbeck's performance in away playoff games and Chicago's defense in home playoff games.

Year   Opponent   Passing  Yards  TD/INT  W/L
2004    Green Bay   25-45      305      0 / 1        L
2007     Chicago      18-33      195      1 / 1        L
2008    Green Bay   19-33      194      1 / 0        L

Matt Hasselbeck has never won a playoff football game on the road, and recently he has been ineffective to the tune of less than 200 passing yards in his past two road playoff starts.  Can the magic from last week continue against a strong Bears defense?  Lets take a look at the Bears defense at home in their last few trips to the playoffs.

Year   Opponent  YA   Int  FF  FR  Sk  PA  W/L
2006     Seattle      306   1     0     0     3    24    W
2006       NO        375    1     4     3     3    14   W
2005       Car         434   1     3     0     1    29    L
2002       PHI        336    1     0     0     2    33    L

These statistics show that the Bears defense gives up a lot of yards against good football teams, but how relevant are these statistics to this year's Chicago team?  Not much.  The 2010 Bears ranked 9th in total defense, allowing 314 yards/game.  They forced 23 fumbles and recovered 14, and intercepted 21 passes.  I think the Bears D gets it done and overcomes a few Jay Cutler turnovers in what should be another tight game.

Make it: Bears 17   Seahawks 13

Playoffs? Talking about Playoffs?

Hello everyone, hope you enjoyed yesterday's blog about the Big Ten conference and my propositions to change the division names.  Today we segway, not like this, into the realm of the National Football League and tomorrow's divisional round games between the Pittsburgh Steelers and Baltimore Ravens, and Green Bay Packers and Atlanta Falcons.  I anticipate two tight, evenly matched games tomorrow and a clear winner for both games does not come to mind.  If I were betting on these games, I would probably resort to my girlfriend's opinion, as much to my chagrin she seems to be correct about everything lately. For a more practical take on tomorrow's games, lets take a look at some statistics to try and predict the outcomes.  I feel that quarterback play is extremely important to succeeding in the NFL playoffs so below are analyses of each quarterback's past playoff performances.

Saturday January 15th, 2011

4:30 PM ET

Baltimore Ravens @ Pittsburgh Steelers

Past five matchups:

Dec 5, 2010 PIT 13 BAL 10

Oct 3, 2010 BAL 17 PIT 14

Dec 27, 2009 PIT 23 BAL 20

Nov 29, 2009 BAL 20, PIT 17

Jan 18, 2009 PIT 23 BAL 14

As one can tell, defense dominates the Steelers-Ravens series.  One intangible in favor of the Steelers is the fact that the Steelers have won the last six games between the two in which Ben Roethlisberger has played. 
However, the Ravens did beat the Steelers in Pittsburgh already this year, so they know what it's like to win a bigtime rivalry game on the road.  One red flag stands out to me for Baltimore: Joe Flacco's past playoff performance; he has not played well enough to win games for Baltimore. Below is a list of his past playoff passing performances.

Year  Opponent  Passing  Yards  TD  INT  Rating
2008     MIA         9-23        135     0       0      59.1
2008     TEN         11-22      161     1       0      89.4
2008     PIT           13-30      141     0       3      18.2
2009      NE           4-10        34       0      1       10.0
2009     IND          20-35      189     0       2      48.4
2010      KC          25-34      265     2       0      115.4

Flacco has only thrown for 200 yards once and has only thrown three touchdowns in six postseason starts.  Although his receiving core is improved this year and I cannot see him repeating his performance from January 2009, I still do not think Flacco has what it takes to beat the Steelers with his arm.  If the Ravens are going to win this football game it will be on the shoulders of their defense or in the hands of Ray Rice.  Ben Roethlisberger's playoff success and ability to extend plays outside the pocket gives the Steelers an advantage in what Terrell Suggs refers to as 'WWIII'

Make it:  Steelers 24  Ravens 13

As for the night game...

Saturday January 15th, 2011

8:00 PM ET

Green Bay Packers @ Atlanta Falcons

Past Five Matchups:
Nov 28, 2010 ATL 20 GNB 17 

Oct 5, 2008 ATL 27 GNB 24 
Nov 13, 2005 GNB 33 ATL 25
Jan 4, 2003  ATL 27 GNB 7
Sep 8, 2002 GNB 37 ATL 34

Green Bay and Atlanta have only played five times in the past nine years, and only once in the playoffs in 2003 with Michael Vick at Quarterback.  Judging by the past two matchups between the teams, this seems like a matchup with potential for a very close contest.  Aaron Rodgers and the Packers looked strong against the Eagles defense, while Clay Mathews and friends shut down Michael Vick and a high powered Eagles offense for most of the game.  However, Eagles kicker David Akers missed two medium range field goals due to the poor weather conditions.  The Packers do not have that luxury in the Georgia Dome.  Considering the past two matchups between these teams, I think this game will come down to quarterbacks, just like the Baltimore-Pittsburgh game.  Can Aaron Rodgers lead his team to victory even though the Pack went 3-5 on the road this season?  Lets take a look at Rodgers career stats against the Falcons and playoff stats, compared to Matt Ryan against the Packers.

Aaron Rodgers

Year  Opponent  Passing  Yards  TD  INT  Rating

2008      ATL       25-37      313      3       1      109.4

2009      ARI        28-42      423      4       1      121.4

2010      ATL       26-35       344     1       0      114.5

2010      PHI        18-27      180      3       0      122.5

Matt Ryan

Year  Opponent  Passing  Yards  TD  INT  Rating

2008       GB         16-26      194     2       1      94.1

2008      ARI         26-40      199     2       2      72.8

2010       GB         24-28      197     1       0      107.9

Clearly Aaron Rodgers has outplayed Matt Ryan in both these teams meetings the past three years, but is that enough for the Packers to win at Atlanta?  Can Michael Turner carry the load to the tune of 110 yards on a 4.8 YPC average and a touchdown like he did in Week 12?  Which defense will show up to force key stops and turnovers.  I think the Pack and my main man, Charles Woodson, will make enough plays to swing this game in favor of the men from Green Bay.

Make it: Packers 27  Falcons 23

Doing Away with the Leaders and Legends Divisions: A Solution to a Presumptuous Proposition

Today Big Ten Commisioner Jim Delaney announced that the Big Ten would keep the original football division names decided on December 16th: The Leaders Division and the Legends Division.  Seriously? How arrogant and pompous can you be Mr. Delany?  Keep in mind the Big Ten has not won a National Title since Ohio State did so in 2002, and that traditional powers such as Michigan and Penn St have struggled as of late.  Although the name accounts for the many iconic coaches and athletes that played in the Big Ten, it is far too broad and could be used for many conferences. 

Besides the distasteful name, I see one other glaring flaw in the division scheduling: the rivalries!  Below is a chart, courtesy of Wikipedia that displays the rivalries scheduled to be played each year:

Legends Division        Leaders Division 


Minnesota - Wisconsin 59–52–8       Michigan - Ohio State 57–44–6

Northwestern - Illinois 46–52–5        Iowa - Purdue 33–45–3

Michigan State - Indiana 41–15–2     Nebraska - Penn State 6–7–0

              Overall Inter-Divisional Record 242–214–24

A glaring problem is the rivalries "established" between Michigan St and Indiana, Iowa and Purdue, and Penn St and Nebraska.  Iowa's main rivals seem to be Wisconsin and Illinois, although Northwestern has had their number lately and lies in the same state as Illinois.  In my opinion,  Iowa-Nebraska, Michigan St-Penn St, and Indiana-Purdue would make much more sense.  Iowa and Nebraska are regional rivals considering the large border they share, Michigan St and Penn St have been playing on the last Saturday of the year since Penn St joined the Big Ten, and is always a competitive football game.  Indiana and Purdue are in the same state, yet neither has been historically good at football.  Both lack a strong rival so pairing these two together seems necessary.  Would this mean a division realignment? Yes, as Nebraska and Iowa are currently in the same division, as well as Indiana and Purdue.  Lets take a look at the Brereton Proviso, which includes renaming both divisions.

Ford Division             Owens Division
Michigan                                          Ohio St
Minnesota                                        Wisconsin
Northwestern                                   Illinois
Nebraska                                         Iowa
Michigan St                                      Penn St
Indiana                                             Purdue

Improvements from the previous model include:
(1) Better regional rivalries
(2) Better division names, Why not honor two of the most influential people of the 20th century, Gerald Ford and Jesse Owens, as opposed to looking like a conference full of arrogance? 
(3) Fair scheduling.  Although the Owens division may be a little bit stronger, the traditional power of Michigan, Ohio St, Nebraska, and Penn St are spread out evenly among the two divisions.

Lets be honest. The Big Ten is all about upholding tradition and excellence.  Lets not let our division names do the talking.  These improvements would honor our predecessors, allow for better rivalries, and let the Big Ten focus on what it does best, playing great football!

The Value of LeBron James to the Cleveland Cavaliers and the aftermath of 'The Decision' on this year's Cavaliers

Wow Cleveland has fallen! Following some of last night's Los Angeles Lakers-Cleveland Cavaliers game made me cringe looking at the box score.  A final score of 112-57? Seriously? The last well publicized game I remember being so lopsided was when the Boston Celtics absolutely crushed the Lakers 131-92 in Game 6 of the 2008 finals.  57 was the least the Cavs had ever scored in a game and the least the Lakers allowed since the introduction of the shot clock in 1954.  The Cavaliers currently boast the NBA's worst record at 8-30, and LeBron seems to be reveling in the glory of their downfalls.  I received a text from my girlfriend earlier today citing a tweet from LeBron referring to last night's demolition of the Cavaliers. 

Obviously much of the Cavaliers decline hinged on one 'Decision,' in which superstar and two-time MVP Lebron James decided to 'take his talents to South Beach' to form 'The Heatles' with Dwayne Wade, Chris Bosh, and friends down in Miami.  To the chagrin of Cleveland fans, Lebron was gone and the Cavs were forced to carry on without him.  Lets take a look at the current Cavaliers lineup compared to last year's:

January 2010                  January 2011

G - Mo Williams                                        G - Mo Williams
G - Anthony Parker                                   G - Manny Harris
F - Lebron James                                     F - Antawn Jamison
F - JJ Hickson                                           F - JJ Hickson
C - Shaq                                                    C - Ryan Hollins

The only players that remain are Mo Williams and JJ Hickson, as Anthony Parker is currently injured and Shaq and Lebron have moved to other teams.  However, the loss of Parker and O'Neal is relatively marginal.  Lebron James WAS the Cleveland Cavaliers.  Below are some statistics that one may be familiar with, but some others that may truly stand out, courtesy of Basketball Reference.


Cavaliers All-time Free Throw Attempts
1. LeBron James 814 2005-06
2. LeBron James 773 2009-10
3. LeBron James 771 2007-08
4. LeBron James 762 2008-09
5. LeBron James 701 2006-07
6. LeBron James 636 2004-05
7. Shawn Kemp 635 1999-00
8. Brad Daugherty 579 1990-91
9. Ron Harper 564 1986-87
10. Shawn Kemp 556 1997-98

Cavaliers All-Time Season Points Per Game




1. LeBron James 31.4 2005-06
2. LeBron James 30.0 2007-08
3. LeBron James 29.7 2009-10
4. LeBron James 28.4 2008-09
5. LeBron James 27.3 2006-07
6. LeBron James 27.2 2004-05
7. Mike Mitchell 24.5 1980-81
8. World B. Free 23.4 1985-86
9. Ron Harper 22.9 1986-87
10. World B. Free 22.5 1984-85

The above individual statistics assert Lebron's dominance as the best player ever to play for Cleveland.  But lets be honest here, who was not aware of that?  The significance of Lebron's last two seasons with the Cavaliers, and the claim that he is the best player in the NBA, can be summarized by two short acronyms: PER and WS.  For those who are not familiar with basketball statistics, PER stands for Player Efficiency Rating.  PER, in short, measures a player's per minute productivity.  More information on PER can be found here. WS stands for Win Shares, which I found to be described well in this quote:

"In other words, a Win Share is kind of like baseball's VORP stat...it relies on the assumption that efficiency is the key to wins, looks at a player's offensive efficiency compared to the league average, a player's defensive efficiency compared to the league average, corrects for minutes played, then adds up the corresponding Offensive and Defensive Win Shares to get one number that estimates how many wins that player was worth."

Both PER and WS are sabermetrics.  Sabermetrics attempts to find answers objective questions in sports such as: Which player on the 2003-2004 Detroit Pistons contributed most to the team's offense?  Was Rickey Henderson faster than Tim Raines?  Does Lebron James contribute more to his team than Chris Paul or Kobe Bryant?  Below are recent statistics on PER and WS, cementing Lebron's meaning and impact on the Cavaliers and how different the team is without him.

Win Shares - 2008/2009 NBA       Win Shares - 2009/2010 NBA


1. LeBron James-CLE 20.3                                          1. LeBron James -CLE 18.5
2. Chris Paul-NOH 18.3                                               2. Kevin Durant -OKC 16.1
3. Dwyane Wade-MIA 14.7                                         3. Dwight Howard -ORL 13.2
4. Pau Gasol-LAL 13.9                                                4. Dwayne Wade -MIA 13.0
5. Dwight Howard-ORL 13.8                                       5. Dirk Nowitzki - DAL 12.3

PER - 2008/2009 NBA                   PER - 2009/2010 NBA


1. LeBron James-CLE 31.76                                           1. LeBron James-CLE 31.19
2. Dwyane Wade-MIA 30.46                                          2. Dwayne Wade-MIA 28.10
3. Chris Paul -NOH 30.04                                               3. Kevin Durant-OKC 26.23
4. Dwight Howard-ORL 25.44                                        4. Chris Bosh-TOR 25.11
5. Tim Duncan-SAS 24.51                                               5. Tim Duncan-SAS 24.79

PER Ratings and more Sabermetrics from ESPN

Based of off the win share data above, LeBron James was clearly the most valuable player to his team the past two NBA seasons, sporting the highest Win Share value as well as the highest Player Efficiency Rating in both seasons.  These ratings credit the supporting casts of superstars like Kobe Bryant, who does not show up on any of these lists.  The closest Cleveland player on the PER lists is Antawn Jamison in 2009/2010, with a PER of 17.66. He checks in at #66 throughout the entire NBA (don't let his contributions fool you though, he only played for Cleveland for the 2nd half of the year and was a larger contributor when he played for the Wizards earlier in the season).  For 2008/2009, Zydrunas Ilgauskas ranks #53 with a PER of 18.03.  Ilgauskas's Win Shares was 6.6 for that season, while Jamison's was 7.0 for last year. 

In addition to win shares, we have what I believe to be the most important statistic, EWA.  EWA stands for Estimated Wins Added, over a replacement player.  LeBron James had an EWA of 30.5 in 2009/2010 and 32.3 in 2008/2009, both being tops in the league.  Clearly this impact is gigantic, as if not for him, these numbers predict the Cavaliers would have won 30 or 31 games last year as opposed to the 61 that they did win in the regular season. 

In conclusion, LeBron was more important to the Cavaliers than any single player on any other team.  If not for him, they would have only won half the games they did last year.  His paramount PER, WS, and EWA make him not only the most indispensible player to his team for 2008/2009 and 2009/2010, but the most valuable player in the NBA.  Now that he's a member of the Heat these numbers may decline, but the Cleveland Cavaliers are getting crushed with out him, and the numbers prove their demise.

Michigan Hires Who? A Report on Brady Hoke

Last week, the Rich Rodriguez era ended at the University of Michigan. For many fans, this era was a dark time. A 15-22 record, 6-21 within the Big Ten, 0-1 in bowl games, and most importantly, 0-3 against Ohio State. The allegations against the program for practice violations cast a dark shadow on Rodriguez and his staff, along with the dismissals of highly touted players like Demar Dorsey and Justin Feagin. Seeing former Michigan players blossom at other schools sickens me, as Ryan Mallett, Steven Threet, and Justin Boren are all excelling at Arkansas, Arizona St, and Ohio St, respectively because they did not want to play for Rich Rod.

However, after attempting to lure Jim Harbaugh and Les Miles to return to their alma maters but coming ouy empty handed, Brady Hoke was hired today. For those of you who don't know about Brady Hoke, below is his coaching resume:

• 1983 - Grand Valley State - Defensive Line
• 1984-1986 - Western Michigan - Defensive Line
• 1987-1989 - Toledo - Linebackers
• 1989-1994 - Oregon State - Defensive Line
• 1995-2002 - Michigan - Defensive Line
• 2003-2008 - Ball St
• 2009-2010 - San Diego St
• 2011 - Michigan

Several things jump out from this list. First, he is part of the Michigan family, as he coached the Defensive Line for eight seasons. Second, he has had some success turning around teams in non-BCS conferences. Ball St went from a perennial loser to a Top-25 team for some of 2008, as Hoke's Cardinals, quarterbacked by Nate Davis, went undefeated until losing to Buffalo in the MAC title game. From Ball St, Hoke went on to San Diego State in the Mountain West, and they went from a 4-8 record in his first season to 9-4 his past year, with all their losses coming to bowl teams in Missouri, BYU, TCU, and Utah. San Diego St only lost to TCU by five points at TCU, an impressive achievement considering how strong a program TCU was this year. Hoke's SDSU Aztecs defeated Navy 35-14 in the Poinsettia Bowl.


These achievements should not go unnoticed, but is Hoke ready to coach a premier football program like the University of Michigan? He has never been a head coach in a BCS conference before and has a losing career record. However, he has turned around two programs that have traditionally been terrible. Also, he will have to adjust the Michigan program to his style of football. This may marginalize the value of players that were integral to the team's success during the Rich Rodriguez era, specifically Denard Robinson. It will be interesting to see how Brady Hoke takes the reins of the Michigan football program, and I hope that he can get the players he needs quickly to run his system and return Michigan to its place as a premier college football program.