Superbowl XLV Reflection

Superbowl XLV: Packers 31 Steelers 25

This matchup between two of the NFL's storied franchises lived up to it's billing.  Two teams with a similar road to the Superbowl: one of adversity.  The Pittsburgh Steelers were without QB Ben Roethlisberger for the first four games, as he was suspended for violating the NFL's personal conduct policy.  The Green Bay Packers endured injuries throughout the season to Aaron Rodgers, Nick Barnett, Ryan Grant, Jermichael Finley, and Al Harris, to name a few, and overcame injuries to veterans Charles Woodson and Donald Driver in the Superbowl itself.  The way that the Packers handled this adversity throughout the season was exceptional.  Backups that were used mainly for special teams had to step into key roles on offense and defense.  Aaron Rodgers had to carry even more of the offensive load on his shoulders when Ryan Grant went down with a season-ending injury in Week 1.  When Donald Driver went down with an injury, unheralded Jordy Nelson stepped in to the tune of 9 catches for 140 yards and a touchdown. 

On paper, the Steelers were a stronger team, with a better running game and superior play on both lines.  However, this Green Bay Packers team is filled with playmakers that made a difference.  The star players for the Packers played exceptionally, while the top players for the Black and Gold were neutralized.

Pittsburgh
Troy Polamalu - 3 tackles, no QB hits. He was hardly around the football.
James Harrison - 1 tackle, 1 sack, 3 QB hits, but was neutralized for most of the game
Ben Roethlisberger- 25/40 for 263 yards, 2 TD but 2 Int.  Roethlisberger played well, but not well enough

Green Bay
Nick Collins  - 4 tackles, 1 pass deflection, and an interception return for a touchdown.  Lived up to his Pro Bowl selection
Greg Jennings - 4 catches for 64, 2 TD, but made the most of his seven targets
Aaron Rodgers - 24/39 for 304 yards, 3 TD no Int.  Rodgers played a great game and picked apart the second best defense in the NFL.

In what was a very evenly matched Superbowl, the Packers made more big plays, forcing three turnovers while the Steelers couldn't force one.  Relentless pressure on Ben Roethlisberger resulted in an errant throw and an interception return for a touchdown, and an early Packers lead caused the Steelers to go away from their strong running game and revert to a passing game that clearly misses Santonio Holmes.  It seemed like the Packers just wanted to win this game more.  Their final regular season games were essentially elimination games, as they sported an 8-6 record after 14 games and needed to win out to make the playoffs.  This Green Bay team played with a swagger and confidence that was unmatched, and rode that confidence to a Superbowl XLV victory!

Reflection on the AFC and NFC Championship Games and a Super Bowl XLV prediction!

The Pittsburgh Steelers. Six Super Bowl Victories. A tradition of winning quarterbacks: Terry Bradshaw, Ben Roethlisberger.  A tradition of winning coaches: Chuck Noll, Bill Cowher, Mike Tomlin.  A tradition of the strongest defenses and defensive players in all of football, from Mean Joe Greene to Troy Polamalu and James Harrison.  The Steelers absolutely dominated the first half of this football game, carrying over the way they played in the second half of the Baltimore game last week.  Up 24-3 at halftime following touchdown runs by Roethlisberger and Rashard Mendenhall and a fumble recovery touchdown return by William Gay, the Steelers seemed untouchable and unphasable. However, the Jets managed to mount a comeback in the second half and almost pulled off an upset that would have seemed impossible in the first half.   Santonio Holmes continued his playoff heroics, catching a 45 yard touchdown pass at the beginning of the third quarter, and Jerricho Cotchery caught a pass to bring the score to 24-19 with three minutes left.  Pittsburgh was able to run out the clock though, ending a game which truly was a tale of two halfs.  Can Pittsburgh put two strong halfs together in the Superbowl two weeks from now? We will see, as they will need it to defeat a hot Green Bay Packers team.

The Green Bay Packers.  Traditionally one of the strongest franchises in NFL history and winners of three Super Bowls, the Pack is back!!  Aaron Rodgers has looked the part of the best quarterback in the NFL throughout the playoffs.  His connection with Greg Jennings forms arguably the top QB-WR combo in the NFL, and his rapport with his other receivers allows him to spread the ball around to many targets.  Rodgers didn't have his best stat line against the Bears Sunday, but his performance was admirable, as he made so exceptional throws outside the pocket following some quick moves to avoid pass rushers.  The Packers were not very effective running the ball against the Bears strong front seven, but the Bears were no better against the Packers defense.  Both defenses were stout, but Aaron Rodgers outplayed the trio of Bears quarterbacks to lead Green Bay to victory. 

Can this Packers team move the ball against the best defense in football next week? It remains to be seen! The Steelers defense has been strong, but not dominant.  Both these defenses are capable of forcing a lot of turnovers, as Green Bay picked of Chicago quarterbacks three times yesterday, and both teams scored a defensive touchdown.  I believe that the Pittsburgh Steelers defense is more proven and should be better prepared for this Super Bowl XLV.  Another advantage the Steelers have is the running game, Rashard Mendenhall runs hard and has great vision.  If the Packers had issues moving the ball against the Bears, the Steelers are even stronger up front and play the pass extremely well with Troy Polamalu in the secondary.  Don't expect James Starks, Brandon Jackson, and John Kuhn to get much going against the Steelers run defense.  In fact, I expect Aaron Rodgers to be the Packers top rusher in the Super Bowl. Damn is he mobile! 

Prediction for this game?  I say the Packers cinderella run continues, even though they seem a little bit overmatched.  Marilynn tends to have a better grasp then I do with who will win games like this, so without further adieu....

Packers 27 - Steelers 24

Playoffs! Take 2!

Thanks to those who read yesterday's blog predicting who would win today's football games between Baltimore and Pittsburgh, and Atlanta and Green Bay.  At this time Baltimore is up 21-7 at haltime, who would have guessed that?  Baltimore has not scored 21 points in its last five meetings with Pittsburgh, yet is has 21 at halftime.  Looks like my 24-13 prediction in favor of Pittsburgh will not work out, but Pittsburgh could mount a comeback to win this game.  Never count Ben Roethlisberger out in the playoffs.  He is a proven winner.

Anyways, today I focus on the New England Patriots vs New York Jets and Seattle Seahawks vs Chicago Bears games.  The Patriots enter this game sporting an eight game winning streak, inculding a 45-3 stomping of the Jets on December 6th.  The Jets are fresh off a thrilling 17-16 victory over the Indianapolis Colts, yet lost three of their last five regular season games, including a 38-34 loss at Chicago, 10-6 loss at home to Miami, and the aformentioned loss to the Patriots.   They did pick up a big win @ the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 15, so maybe that win coupled with last weeks can motivate the Jets to put their best foot, sorry Rex, forward against the Patriots tomorrow.  I looked at quarterbacks in yesterday's game (ironic that Joe Flacco threw a pick right as I wrote this), so today I'll look at defense as a predictor of who will win these games, starting with the Jets and their games against the Patriots and in the playoffs over the past two years.

Team Opp  Year  YA  Int FF FR Sk PA  W/L
NY Jets    Patriots    2009       299      1        0       0      0       9          W
NY Jets @Patriots    2009       410      0        2       1      2      31          L
NY Jets    Bengals    2009       281      1        2       1      3      14         W
NY Jets @Chargers 2009       344      2        2       0      2      14         W
NY Jets @Colts       2009       461      0        2       1      2      30         L
NY Jets    Patriots    2010       291      2        1       1      1      14         W
NY Jets  @Patriots  2010       405      0        0       0       3     45         L
NY Jets  @Colts     2010       312      0        0        0      1      16         W

Patriots   @Jets        2009       254      0        2       0       2      16         L
Patriots       Jets        2009       226      4        1       1       2      14         W
Patriots      Ravens    2009       268      1        1       1      0       33         L
Patriots   @Jets        2010       336      0         0       0      3      28         L
Patriots       Jets        2010       301      3        1       0       1      3           W

A glaring statistic from this data is the difference between the Jets defensive performance at home and at the Patriots.  In both games at the Patriots the past two years, the Jets have allowed over 400 yards and given up at least thirty points.  In two losses to the Jets in 2009 and 2010, the points the Patriots gave up was 28.  One can expect this game to be closer than last months encounter, but the Jets don't have an answer for the Patriots offense on the road.

Make it:  Patriots 34   Jets 17

Like the Patriots and Jets, the Seahawks and Bears have already played this season, resulting in a 23-20 for the Seahawks @ Soldier Field.  Is this Week 6 matchup indicative of how both these teams are playing today? No.  Should it give Seattle even more confidence coming off its win against the New Orleans Saints? Yes.  However, playing in Chicago is totally different then in Seattle.  Lets take a look at Matt Hasselbeck's performance in away playoff games and Chicago's defense in home playoff games.

Year   Opponent   Passing  Yards  TD/INT  W/L
2004    Green Bay   25-45      305      0 / 1        L
2007     Chicago      18-33      195      1 / 1        L
2008    Green Bay   19-33      194      1 / 0        L

Matt Hasselbeck has never won a playoff football game on the road, and recently he has been ineffective to the tune of less than 200 passing yards in his past two road playoff starts.  Can the magic from last week continue against a strong Bears defense?  Lets take a look at the Bears defense at home in their last few trips to the playoffs.

Year   Opponent  YA   Int  FF  FR  Sk  PA  W/L
2006     Seattle      306   1     0     0     3    24    W
2006       NO        375    1     4     3     3    14   W
2005       Car         434   1     3     0     1    29    L
2002       PHI        336    1     0     0     2    33    L

These statistics show that the Bears defense gives up a lot of yards against good football teams, but how relevant are these statistics to this year's Chicago team?  Not much.  The 2010 Bears ranked 9th in total defense, allowing 314 yards/game.  They forced 23 fumbles and recovered 14, and intercepted 21 passes.  I think the Bears D gets it done and overcomes a few Jay Cutler turnovers in what should be another tight game.

Make it: Bears 17   Seahawks 13