Playoffs? Talking about Playoffs?

Hello everyone, hope you enjoyed yesterday's blog about the Big Ten conference and my propositions to change the division names.  Today we segway, not like this, into the realm of the National Football League and tomorrow's divisional round games between the Pittsburgh Steelers and Baltimore Ravens, and Green Bay Packers and Atlanta Falcons.  I anticipate two tight, evenly matched games tomorrow and a clear winner for both games does not come to mind.  If I were betting on these games, I would probably resort to my girlfriend's opinion, as much to my chagrin she seems to be correct about everything lately. For a more practical take on tomorrow's games, lets take a look at some statistics to try and predict the outcomes.  I feel that quarterback play is extremely important to succeeding in the NFL playoffs so below are analyses of each quarterback's past playoff performances.

Saturday January 15th, 2011

4:30 PM ET

Baltimore Ravens @ Pittsburgh Steelers

Past five matchups:

Dec 5, 2010 PIT 13 BAL 10

Oct 3, 2010 BAL 17 PIT 14

Dec 27, 2009 PIT 23 BAL 20

Nov 29, 2009 BAL 20, PIT 17

Jan 18, 2009 PIT 23 BAL 14

As one can tell, defense dominates the Steelers-Ravens series.  One intangible in favor of the Steelers is the fact that the Steelers have won the last six games between the two in which Ben Roethlisberger has played. 
However, the Ravens did beat the Steelers in Pittsburgh already this year, so they know what it's like to win a bigtime rivalry game on the road.  One red flag stands out to me for Baltimore: Joe Flacco's past playoff performance; he has not played well enough to win games for Baltimore. Below is a list of his past playoff passing performances.

Year  Opponent  Passing  Yards  TD  INT  Rating
2008     MIA         9-23        135     0       0      59.1
2008     TEN         11-22      161     1       0      89.4
2008     PIT           13-30      141     0       3      18.2
2009      NE           4-10        34       0      1       10.0
2009     IND          20-35      189     0       2      48.4
2010      KC          25-34      265     2       0      115.4

Flacco has only thrown for 200 yards once and has only thrown three touchdowns in six postseason starts.  Although his receiving core is improved this year and I cannot see him repeating his performance from January 2009, I still do not think Flacco has what it takes to beat the Steelers with his arm.  If the Ravens are going to win this football game it will be on the shoulders of their defense or in the hands of Ray Rice.  Ben Roethlisberger's playoff success and ability to extend plays outside the pocket gives the Steelers an advantage in what Terrell Suggs refers to as 'WWIII'

Make it:  Steelers 24  Ravens 13

As for the night game...

Saturday January 15th, 2011

8:00 PM ET

Green Bay Packers @ Atlanta Falcons

Past Five Matchups:
Nov 28, 2010 ATL 20 GNB 17 

Oct 5, 2008 ATL 27 GNB 24 
Nov 13, 2005 GNB 33 ATL 25
Jan 4, 2003  ATL 27 GNB 7
Sep 8, 2002 GNB 37 ATL 34

Green Bay and Atlanta have only played five times in the past nine years, and only once in the playoffs in 2003 with Michael Vick at Quarterback.  Judging by the past two matchups between the teams, this seems like a matchup with potential for a very close contest.  Aaron Rodgers and the Packers looked strong against the Eagles defense, while Clay Mathews and friends shut down Michael Vick and a high powered Eagles offense for most of the game.  However, Eagles kicker David Akers missed two medium range field goals due to the poor weather conditions.  The Packers do not have that luxury in the Georgia Dome.  Considering the past two matchups between these teams, I think this game will come down to quarterbacks, just like the Baltimore-Pittsburgh game.  Can Aaron Rodgers lead his team to victory even though the Pack went 3-5 on the road this season?  Lets take a look at Rodgers career stats against the Falcons and playoff stats, compared to Matt Ryan against the Packers.

Aaron Rodgers

Year  Opponent  Passing  Yards  TD  INT  Rating

2008      ATL       25-37      313      3       1      109.4

2009      ARI        28-42      423      4       1      121.4

2010      ATL       26-35       344     1       0      114.5

2010      PHI        18-27      180      3       0      122.5

Matt Ryan

Year  Opponent  Passing  Yards  TD  INT  Rating

2008       GB         16-26      194     2       1      94.1

2008      ARI         26-40      199     2       2      72.8

2010       GB         24-28      197     1       0      107.9

Clearly Aaron Rodgers has outplayed Matt Ryan in both these teams meetings the past three years, but is that enough for the Packers to win at Atlanta?  Can Michael Turner carry the load to the tune of 110 yards on a 4.8 YPC average and a touchdown like he did in Week 12?  Which defense will show up to force key stops and turnovers.  I think the Pack and my main man, Charles Woodson, will make enough plays to swing this game in favor of the men from Green Bay.

Make it: Packers 27  Falcons 23