Final Reflection on Patriots-Jets

Oh how the mighty have fallen.  First the #1 seeded Falcons succumbed to the #6 seeded Packers, and now the #6 seeded Jets defeated the powerful New England Patriots, who had looked unstoppable the past two months, specifically the last time they played these same Jets.  In this AFC East showdown, the game ball goes to the New York Jets defense.  Darrelle Revis had great coverage on Deion Branch all night, knocking a few balls loose and disrupting a few passes.  Antonio Cromarite had a key onside kick return inside the New England 20, which all but sealed the outcome.  David Harris had, in my opinion, the most important play of the game, an interception which stopped a New England drive which seemed destined for the endzone.  Nevermind the fact that Nick Folk barely missed a field goal three plays later, missing an opportunity to score three points is much better than being in the whole seven points.  An early lead and strong defense in the first half allowed the Jets to control the clock and run the ball with LaDanian Tomlinson and Shonn Greene, who combined had 27 carries for 119 yards and a touchdown (LT also caught a touchdown). 

Due to their excellent coverage in the secondary, the Jets were able to put pressure on Brady all night, sacking him five times and hitting him seven times.  As composed as Tom Brady is in the pocket and although he had a strong performance today, he looked flustered and uncomfortable for most of the afternoon.  The Patriots went 5-14 on third down, mostly because of excellent coverage in the secondary. 

Several concluding thoughts on this slugfest: (1) Props to Mark Sanchez for a solid game and no mistakes.  Just one or two bad decisions by Sanchez could have swung the game in the Patriots favor, but Sanchez was calm and collected and faced little pressure from the Patriots most of the game.  Certainly it helps when you sport D'Brickshaw Ferguson and Nick Mangold on your offensive line, but Sanchez played a very smart football game.  (2)  Why did Belicheck go for that fake punt?  The risk was not worth the reward on the fake punt attempted by the Patriots.  Why risk giving the Jets the ball with less than half the field to score when the Patriots would have needed at least twenty more yards to kick a field goal, no guarantee against a strong Jets defense?  (3)  Props to Rex Ryan for getting his team fired up for this game.  The combination of the trash talk and the humiliation of the 45-3 loss last time the Jets visited Gillete Stadium must have instilled a fire in their team.

Update on Patriots-Jets: Halftime reflection

Looks like the boys from New York are backing up all the trash talk from earlier in the week as the Jets are up 14-3 on the Patriots at halftime.  In terms of yardage this has been a pretty even ballgame, the Jets have 157 total yards to 127 for the Patriots.  However, a key interception by Tom Brady in Jets territory stalled a Patriots drive, and a fumbled fake punt led to a Jets touchdown to Braylon Edwards with less then a minute left in the first half.  As much as I love Braylon and David Harris, I can't say I'm rooting for them to continue with their antics as it would hurt to see the Patriots lose this game. 

Looking at Tom Brady's stats, he is 10/17 for 99 yards and an interception.  Lets see if he can get the ball a bit more downfield.  The Jets are pretty talented in the secondary with Darrel Revis, Antonio Cromarite, and Dwight Lowery back there playing defense, but if anyone can slice this secondary up it is Brady.  I am looking forward to a strong second-half showing from Brady and the Pats that hopefully will lead them to victory!

Playoffs! Take 2!

Thanks to those who read yesterday's blog predicting who would win today's football games between Baltimore and Pittsburgh, and Atlanta and Green Bay.  At this time Baltimore is up 21-7 at haltime, who would have guessed that?  Baltimore has not scored 21 points in its last five meetings with Pittsburgh, yet is has 21 at halftime.  Looks like my 24-13 prediction in favor of Pittsburgh will not work out, but Pittsburgh could mount a comeback to win this game.  Never count Ben Roethlisberger out in the playoffs.  He is a proven winner.

Anyways, today I focus on the New England Patriots vs New York Jets and Seattle Seahawks vs Chicago Bears games.  The Patriots enter this game sporting an eight game winning streak, inculding a 45-3 stomping of the Jets on December 6th.  The Jets are fresh off a thrilling 17-16 victory over the Indianapolis Colts, yet lost three of their last five regular season games, including a 38-34 loss at Chicago, 10-6 loss at home to Miami, and the aformentioned loss to the Patriots.   They did pick up a big win @ the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 15, so maybe that win coupled with last weeks can motivate the Jets to put their best foot, sorry Rex, forward against the Patriots tomorrow.  I looked at quarterbacks in yesterday's game (ironic that Joe Flacco threw a pick right as I wrote this), so today I'll look at defense as a predictor of who will win these games, starting with the Jets and their games against the Patriots and in the playoffs over the past two years.

Team Opp  Year  YA  Int FF FR Sk PA  W/L
NY Jets    Patriots    2009       299      1        0       0      0       9          W
NY Jets @Patriots    2009       410      0        2       1      2      31          L
NY Jets    Bengals    2009       281      1        2       1      3      14         W
NY Jets @Chargers 2009       344      2        2       0      2      14         W
NY Jets @Colts       2009       461      0        2       1      2      30         L
NY Jets    Patriots    2010       291      2        1       1      1      14         W
NY Jets  @Patriots  2010       405      0        0       0       3     45         L
NY Jets  @Colts     2010       312      0        0        0      1      16         W

Patriots   @Jets        2009       254      0        2       0       2      16         L
Patriots       Jets        2009       226      4        1       1       2      14         W
Patriots      Ravens    2009       268      1        1       1      0       33         L
Patriots   @Jets        2010       336      0         0       0      3      28         L
Patriots       Jets        2010       301      3        1       0       1      3           W

A glaring statistic from this data is the difference between the Jets defensive performance at home and at the Patriots.  In both games at the Patriots the past two years, the Jets have allowed over 400 yards and given up at least thirty points.  In two losses to the Jets in 2009 and 2010, the points the Patriots gave up was 28.  One can expect this game to be closer than last months encounter, but the Jets don't have an answer for the Patriots offense on the road.

Make it:  Patriots 34   Jets 17

Like the Patriots and Jets, the Seahawks and Bears have already played this season, resulting in a 23-20 for the Seahawks @ Soldier Field.  Is this Week 6 matchup indicative of how both these teams are playing today? No.  Should it give Seattle even more confidence coming off its win against the New Orleans Saints? Yes.  However, playing in Chicago is totally different then in Seattle.  Lets take a look at Matt Hasselbeck's performance in away playoff games and Chicago's defense in home playoff games.

Year   Opponent   Passing  Yards  TD/INT  W/L
2004    Green Bay   25-45      305      0 / 1        L
2007     Chicago      18-33      195      1 / 1        L
2008    Green Bay   19-33      194      1 / 0        L

Matt Hasselbeck has never won a playoff football game on the road, and recently he has been ineffective to the tune of less than 200 passing yards in his past two road playoff starts.  Can the magic from last week continue against a strong Bears defense?  Lets take a look at the Bears defense at home in their last few trips to the playoffs.

Year   Opponent  YA   Int  FF  FR  Sk  PA  W/L
2006     Seattle      306   1     0     0     3    24    W
2006       NO        375    1     4     3     3    14   W
2005       Car         434   1     3     0     1    29    L
2002       PHI        336    1     0     0     2    33    L

These statistics show that the Bears defense gives up a lot of yards against good football teams, but how relevant are these statistics to this year's Chicago team?  Not much.  The 2010 Bears ranked 9th in total defense, allowing 314 yards/game.  They forced 23 fumbles and recovered 14, and intercepted 21 passes.  I think the Bears D gets it done and overcomes a few Jay Cutler turnovers in what should be another tight game.

Make it: Bears 17   Seahawks 13