Superbowl XLV Reflection

Superbowl XLV: Packers 31 Steelers 25

This matchup between two of the NFL's storied franchises lived up to it's billing.  Two teams with a similar road to the Superbowl: one of adversity.  The Pittsburgh Steelers were without QB Ben Roethlisberger for the first four games, as he was suspended for violating the NFL's personal conduct policy.  The Green Bay Packers endured injuries throughout the season to Aaron Rodgers, Nick Barnett, Ryan Grant, Jermichael Finley, and Al Harris, to name a few, and overcame injuries to veterans Charles Woodson and Donald Driver in the Superbowl itself.  The way that the Packers handled this adversity throughout the season was exceptional.  Backups that were used mainly for special teams had to step into key roles on offense and defense.  Aaron Rodgers had to carry even more of the offensive load on his shoulders when Ryan Grant went down with a season-ending injury in Week 1.  When Donald Driver went down with an injury, unheralded Jordy Nelson stepped in to the tune of 9 catches for 140 yards and a touchdown. 

On paper, the Steelers were a stronger team, with a better running game and superior play on both lines.  However, this Green Bay Packers team is filled with playmakers that made a difference.  The star players for the Packers played exceptionally, while the top players for the Black and Gold were neutralized.

Pittsburgh
Troy Polamalu - 3 tackles, no QB hits. He was hardly around the football.
James Harrison - 1 tackle, 1 sack, 3 QB hits, but was neutralized for most of the game
Ben Roethlisberger- 25/40 for 263 yards, 2 TD but 2 Int.  Roethlisberger played well, but not well enough

Green Bay
Nick Collins  - 4 tackles, 1 pass deflection, and an interception return for a touchdown.  Lived up to his Pro Bowl selection
Greg Jennings - 4 catches for 64, 2 TD, but made the most of his seven targets
Aaron Rodgers - 24/39 for 304 yards, 3 TD no Int.  Rodgers played a great game and picked apart the second best defense in the NFL.

In what was a very evenly matched Superbowl, the Packers made more big plays, forcing three turnovers while the Steelers couldn't force one.  Relentless pressure on Ben Roethlisberger resulted in an errant throw and an interception return for a touchdown, and an early Packers lead caused the Steelers to go away from their strong running game and revert to a passing game that clearly misses Santonio Holmes.  It seemed like the Packers just wanted to win this game more.  Their final regular season games were essentially elimination games, as they sported an 8-6 record after 14 games and needed to win out to make the playoffs.  This Green Bay team played with a swagger and confidence that was unmatched, and rode that confidence to a Superbowl XLV victory!

Reflection on the AFC and NFC Championship Games and a Super Bowl XLV prediction!

The Pittsburgh Steelers. Six Super Bowl Victories. A tradition of winning quarterbacks: Terry Bradshaw, Ben Roethlisberger.  A tradition of winning coaches: Chuck Noll, Bill Cowher, Mike Tomlin.  A tradition of the strongest defenses and defensive players in all of football, from Mean Joe Greene to Troy Polamalu and James Harrison.  The Steelers absolutely dominated the first half of this football game, carrying over the way they played in the second half of the Baltimore game last week.  Up 24-3 at halftime following touchdown runs by Roethlisberger and Rashard Mendenhall and a fumble recovery touchdown return by William Gay, the Steelers seemed untouchable and unphasable. However, the Jets managed to mount a comeback in the second half and almost pulled off an upset that would have seemed impossible in the first half.   Santonio Holmes continued his playoff heroics, catching a 45 yard touchdown pass at the beginning of the third quarter, and Jerricho Cotchery caught a pass to bring the score to 24-19 with three minutes left.  Pittsburgh was able to run out the clock though, ending a game which truly was a tale of two halfs.  Can Pittsburgh put two strong halfs together in the Superbowl two weeks from now? We will see, as they will need it to defeat a hot Green Bay Packers team.

The Green Bay Packers.  Traditionally one of the strongest franchises in NFL history and winners of three Super Bowls, the Pack is back!!  Aaron Rodgers has looked the part of the best quarterback in the NFL throughout the playoffs.  His connection with Greg Jennings forms arguably the top QB-WR combo in the NFL, and his rapport with his other receivers allows him to spread the ball around to many targets.  Rodgers didn't have his best stat line against the Bears Sunday, but his performance was admirable, as he made so exceptional throws outside the pocket following some quick moves to avoid pass rushers.  The Packers were not very effective running the ball against the Bears strong front seven, but the Bears were no better against the Packers defense.  Both defenses were stout, but Aaron Rodgers outplayed the trio of Bears quarterbacks to lead Green Bay to victory. 

Can this Packers team move the ball against the best defense in football next week? It remains to be seen! The Steelers defense has been strong, but not dominant.  Both these defenses are capable of forcing a lot of turnovers, as Green Bay picked of Chicago quarterbacks three times yesterday, and both teams scored a defensive touchdown.  I believe that the Pittsburgh Steelers defense is more proven and should be better prepared for this Super Bowl XLV.  Another advantage the Steelers have is the running game, Rashard Mendenhall runs hard and has great vision.  If the Packers had issues moving the ball against the Bears, the Steelers are even stronger up front and play the pass extremely well with Troy Polamalu in the secondary.  Don't expect James Starks, Brandon Jackson, and John Kuhn to get much going against the Steelers run defense.  In fact, I expect Aaron Rodgers to be the Packers top rusher in the Super Bowl. Damn is he mobile! 

Prediction for this game?  I say the Packers cinderella run continues, even though they seem a little bit overmatched.  Marilynn tends to have a better grasp then I do with who will win games like this, so without further adieu....

Packers 27 - Steelers 24

Playoffs? Talking about Playoffs?

Hello everyone, hope you enjoyed yesterday's blog about the Big Ten conference and my propositions to change the division names.  Today we segway, not like this, into the realm of the National Football League and tomorrow's divisional round games between the Pittsburgh Steelers and Baltimore Ravens, and Green Bay Packers and Atlanta Falcons.  I anticipate two tight, evenly matched games tomorrow and a clear winner for both games does not come to mind.  If I were betting on these games, I would probably resort to my girlfriend's opinion, as much to my chagrin she seems to be correct about everything lately. For a more practical take on tomorrow's games, lets take a look at some statistics to try and predict the outcomes.  I feel that quarterback play is extremely important to succeeding in the NFL playoffs so below are analyses of each quarterback's past playoff performances.

Saturday January 15th, 2011

4:30 PM ET

Baltimore Ravens @ Pittsburgh Steelers

Past five matchups:

Dec 5, 2010 PIT 13 BAL 10

Oct 3, 2010 BAL 17 PIT 14

Dec 27, 2009 PIT 23 BAL 20

Nov 29, 2009 BAL 20, PIT 17

Jan 18, 2009 PIT 23 BAL 14

As one can tell, defense dominates the Steelers-Ravens series.  One intangible in favor of the Steelers is the fact that the Steelers have won the last six games between the two in which Ben Roethlisberger has played. 
However, the Ravens did beat the Steelers in Pittsburgh already this year, so they know what it's like to win a bigtime rivalry game on the road.  One red flag stands out to me for Baltimore: Joe Flacco's past playoff performance; he has not played well enough to win games for Baltimore. Below is a list of his past playoff passing performances.

Year  Opponent  Passing  Yards  TD  INT  Rating
2008     MIA         9-23        135     0       0      59.1
2008     TEN         11-22      161     1       0      89.4
2008     PIT           13-30      141     0       3      18.2
2009      NE           4-10        34       0      1       10.0
2009     IND          20-35      189     0       2      48.4
2010      KC          25-34      265     2       0      115.4

Flacco has only thrown for 200 yards once and has only thrown three touchdowns in six postseason starts.  Although his receiving core is improved this year and I cannot see him repeating his performance from January 2009, I still do not think Flacco has what it takes to beat the Steelers with his arm.  If the Ravens are going to win this football game it will be on the shoulders of their defense or in the hands of Ray Rice.  Ben Roethlisberger's playoff success and ability to extend plays outside the pocket gives the Steelers an advantage in what Terrell Suggs refers to as 'WWIII'

Make it:  Steelers 24  Ravens 13

As for the night game...

Saturday January 15th, 2011

8:00 PM ET

Green Bay Packers @ Atlanta Falcons

Past Five Matchups:
Nov 28, 2010 ATL 20 GNB 17 

Oct 5, 2008 ATL 27 GNB 24 
Nov 13, 2005 GNB 33 ATL 25
Jan 4, 2003  ATL 27 GNB 7
Sep 8, 2002 GNB 37 ATL 34

Green Bay and Atlanta have only played five times in the past nine years, and only once in the playoffs in 2003 with Michael Vick at Quarterback.  Judging by the past two matchups between the teams, this seems like a matchup with potential for a very close contest.  Aaron Rodgers and the Packers looked strong against the Eagles defense, while Clay Mathews and friends shut down Michael Vick and a high powered Eagles offense for most of the game.  However, Eagles kicker David Akers missed two medium range field goals due to the poor weather conditions.  The Packers do not have that luxury in the Georgia Dome.  Considering the past two matchups between these teams, I think this game will come down to quarterbacks, just like the Baltimore-Pittsburgh game.  Can Aaron Rodgers lead his team to victory even though the Pack went 3-5 on the road this season?  Lets take a look at Rodgers career stats against the Falcons and playoff stats, compared to Matt Ryan against the Packers.

Aaron Rodgers

Year  Opponent  Passing  Yards  TD  INT  Rating

2008      ATL       25-37      313      3       1      109.4

2009      ARI        28-42      423      4       1      121.4

2010      ATL       26-35       344     1       0      114.5

2010      PHI        18-27      180      3       0      122.5

Matt Ryan

Year  Opponent  Passing  Yards  TD  INT  Rating

2008       GB         16-26      194     2       1      94.1

2008      ARI         26-40      199     2       2      72.8

2010       GB         24-28      197     1       0      107.9

Clearly Aaron Rodgers has outplayed Matt Ryan in both these teams meetings the past three years, but is that enough for the Packers to win at Atlanta?  Can Michael Turner carry the load to the tune of 110 yards on a 4.8 YPC average and a touchdown like he did in Week 12?  Which defense will show up to force key stops and turnovers.  I think the Pack and my main man, Charles Woodson, will make enough plays to swing this game in favor of the men from Green Bay.

Make it: Packers 27  Falcons 23