Australian Open Recap: The Rise of Djokovic and the Fall of Federer?

Hey guys, its been a while!  I've been back in East Lansing, Michigan and have kept pretty busy with family, friends, and Marilynn.  Hopefully I'll be able to blog more this week but who knows!

First off, congratulations to Novak Djokovic of Serbia and Kim Clijsters of Belgium for winning the Australian Open.  Djokovic defeated Andy Murray 6-4 6-2 6-3 and Clijsters defeated Li Na 3-6 6-3 6-3. I was relatively surprised by the results of the tournament in particular the men's side.  At this time two weeks ago, there was no doubt in my mind that Rafael Nadal was going to win the Aussie Open.  He had so much momentum coming in from last season and a minor injury a few weeks prior seemed irrelevant.  However, injuries are no surprise with Rafa, so seeing him succumb to a virus, which affected his play against fellow Spaniard David Ferrer, was not abnormal.

Not to take credit away from Djokovic, who played masterful tennis throughout the tournament, but the 2011 Australian Open will be remembered for the shortcomings of the top two players in the game: Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer.  Federer fell to Djokovic in straight sets in the semifinals, although all three were closely contested.  One has to consider if Federer is dropping off at all.  He is not consistently beating top-10 players like he did several years ago and is playing second fiddle to Nadal.  Am I saying that Federer will never win a major again? No.  Is his window of opportunity quickly closing? Yes.  It's remarkable how long he has been at the top of his game, but younger players like Murray and Djokovic are trying to take his place as the game's elite.  Djokovic has been one of the top five players in the world for three years, winning the Australian Open in 2008, but has faded in and out at majors with fitness issues and uninspired performances against Nadal and Federer.  However, the way Djokovic dismantled Berdych, Federer, and Murray in succession was truly impressive.  If Nadal continues to struggle with injuries and Federer keeps falling off, expect Djokovic to be pretty successful from here on out if he can stay fit.  Besides, at least he has his girlfriend to fall back on.

 

Michael Vick: A Rebranding

What do Bob Barker and Michael Vick have in common? They both do their part to control the pet population! 

Jokes like these were a norm in August 2007, when Michael Vick was convicted of federal felony charges for instigating an illegal interstate dog fighting ring.  Vick plead guilty to these charges and was sentenced to 21 months in prison at Leavenworth, a Federal Penetentiary, followed by two months of house arrest.  Following his stay in prison, Vick was released by the Atlanta Falcons, as owner Arthur Blank had no interest in keeping him around.  Vick then signed with the Philadelphia Eagles before the start of the 2009 NFL season and was reinstated in Week 3 of that season by Commissioner Roger Goodell.  His role expanded from that of a back-up, distraction, and running threat in 2009 to arguably one of the top quarterback's in the NFL in 2010, leading the Philadelphia Eagles to an NFC East Division title and earning himself a spot in the Pro Bowl as the starting quarterback for the NFC. 

Clearly Michael Vick's talent on the football field never left during his hiatus from the game, but will his sponsorships ever return?  Before his dog fighting scandal with Bad Newz Kennels, Vick was endorsed by Nike, Coca-Cola, Kraft, and even graced the cover of an EA Sports Madden NFL video game. Today? His first television appearance for a product occurred last month when he appeared in a commercial for a Nissan car dealership.  But today, Michael Vick signed his first official endorsement deal since his return from prison.  The company?  Unequal Technologies, a provider of football pads Vick wore throughout the season.  When Vick missed time with a rib injury in the middle of the season, his return to the field coincided with a protective vest designed by Unequal.  Later in the year he began wearing shoulder and thigh pads made by the company. 

I strongly believe that Michael Vick can follow this endorsement with more prestigious ones in the future.  He may not win back top companies such as Nike and Coca-Cola, but Vick is working to reestablish his image off the field, and has already showed improvements on the field from last season.  In December 2009, Vick became the Ed Block Courage Award recipient for the Eagles, an award voted by teammates. The award honors players who "exemplify commitment to the principles of sportsmanship and courage." Vick said of the award, "It means a great deal to me. I was voted unanimously by my teammates. They know what I've been through. I've been through a lot. It's been great to come back and have an opportunity to play and be with a great group of guys. I'm just ecstatic about that and I enjoy every day."  Judging from that statement, Vick clearly understands how fortunate he is to be back on the field, and to be labeled in a positive light.  This self-recognition is the first step toward rebranding himself.

Scandals such as the one Vick through will stick for a while, but I think people in today's society are more forgiving toward such actions.  Many people forgive Bill Clinton for being unfaithful to his wife, as he is still revered in many circles for his accomplishments during his presidency and highly sought after for fundraisers and events to the tune of millions of dollars.  Tiger Woods is redefining his image by simply focusing on the game of golf and staying out of the media spotlight.  Doing that alone will help his image down the road, even if some of his bigger sponsors never return.  Michael Vick's accomplishments on the football field will eventually over shadow his actions in his dog fighting ring.  Surely organizations like PETA will never support him, but if he just goes to work everyday and performs on the field, endorsements will keep coming his way.  Rebranding takes determination and hard work, and keeping a clean image off the field coupled with strong performances on the field will get Vick back to the top. 

Keep playing solid football Mr. Vick and keep working on turning your life around. Your teammates, coaches, friends, sponsors, and me, believe in you.

Profile: Daryl Morey

Hey guys, figured I would add a weekly profile to the blog.  This week's profile, and the subject of a presentation for my New Venture Capitalism class, is Houston Rockets GM Daryl Morey.  Morey is the first General Manager in the NBA committed to analytics, some of which are described in a previous blog of mine in the preceeding link.  Morey became the GM of the Houston Rockets in May 2007 after serving three years as the Senior Vice President of Operations and Information for the Boston Celtics.  He previously attended Northwestern as an undergraduate, and received a degree in Computer Science, and then attended the Sloan School of Management at MIT for his MBA. 

Morey uses statistics to analyze qualitative actions in basketball.  His first project for the Boston Celtics was one in which he performed a regression analysis of 25 years of NBA drafts to determine which college statistics best equate with NBA success at each of the five positions.  Once hired as the Assistant GM in Houston in 2006, Morey scouted players that offseason that could make the team better in terms of these categories:

• decreasing opponents FG %
• usage rate
• increasing FG %

Morey figured out that Shane Battier was the best fit for the Rockets, as his team scored more, rebounded, better, fouled less, allowed, fewer points, shot better, and decreased their opponents shooting percentage when he was on the court.  Morey figured he would be the perfect complement to superstars Tracy McGrady and Yao Ming.  Morey also insists on trading for and drafting players which were versatile and capable of creating offensive and defensive advantages.  Such a player is Kevin Martin, a 6-6 Shooting Guard acquired in a trade with the Sacramento Kings last season.  Martin's height creates mismatches on both ends of the floor.

Will Daryl Morey's success in Houston continue to the point at which the Rockets are a championship contender?  Who knows!  However, it will be interesting to see if NBA teams keep hiring experts in analytics to advise or even run their teams.  About two thirds of NBA teams currently employ at least one expert of analytics, and this trend should continue to increase, especially of Morey's Rockets continue to improve!

Reflection on the AFC and NFC Championship Games and a Super Bowl XLV prediction!

The Pittsburgh Steelers. Six Super Bowl Victories. A tradition of winning quarterbacks: Terry Bradshaw, Ben Roethlisberger.  A tradition of winning coaches: Chuck Noll, Bill Cowher, Mike Tomlin.  A tradition of the strongest defenses and defensive players in all of football, from Mean Joe Greene to Troy Polamalu and James Harrison.  The Steelers absolutely dominated the first half of this football game, carrying over the way they played in the second half of the Baltimore game last week.  Up 24-3 at halftime following touchdown runs by Roethlisberger and Rashard Mendenhall and a fumble recovery touchdown return by William Gay, the Steelers seemed untouchable and unphasable. However, the Jets managed to mount a comeback in the second half and almost pulled off an upset that would have seemed impossible in the first half.   Santonio Holmes continued his playoff heroics, catching a 45 yard touchdown pass at the beginning of the third quarter, and Jerricho Cotchery caught a pass to bring the score to 24-19 with three minutes left.  Pittsburgh was able to run out the clock though, ending a game which truly was a tale of two halfs.  Can Pittsburgh put two strong halfs together in the Superbowl two weeks from now? We will see, as they will need it to defeat a hot Green Bay Packers team.

The Green Bay Packers.  Traditionally one of the strongest franchises in NFL history and winners of three Super Bowls, the Pack is back!!  Aaron Rodgers has looked the part of the best quarterback in the NFL throughout the playoffs.  His connection with Greg Jennings forms arguably the top QB-WR combo in the NFL, and his rapport with his other receivers allows him to spread the ball around to many targets.  Rodgers didn't have his best stat line against the Bears Sunday, but his performance was admirable, as he made so exceptional throws outside the pocket following some quick moves to avoid pass rushers.  The Packers were not very effective running the ball against the Bears strong front seven, but the Bears were no better against the Packers defense.  Both defenses were stout, but Aaron Rodgers outplayed the trio of Bears quarterbacks to lead Green Bay to victory. 

Can this Packers team move the ball against the best defense in football next week? It remains to be seen! The Steelers defense has been strong, but not dominant.  Both these defenses are capable of forcing a lot of turnovers, as Green Bay picked of Chicago quarterbacks three times yesterday, and both teams scored a defensive touchdown.  I believe that the Pittsburgh Steelers defense is more proven and should be better prepared for this Super Bowl XLV.  Another advantage the Steelers have is the running game, Rashard Mendenhall runs hard and has great vision.  If the Packers had issues moving the ball against the Bears, the Steelers are even stronger up front and play the pass extremely well with Troy Polamalu in the secondary.  Don't expect James Starks, Brandon Jackson, and John Kuhn to get much going against the Steelers run defense.  In fact, I expect Aaron Rodgers to be the Packers top rusher in the Super Bowl. Damn is he mobile! 

Prediction for this game?  I say the Packers cinderella run continues, even though they seem a little bit overmatched.  Marilynn tends to have a better grasp then I do with who will win games like this, so without further adieu....

Packers 27 - Steelers 24

NFC Championship Game: An In-game Reaction

Wow this game seems lopsided so far as the Packers are leading the Bears 14-0 with 2:00 left in the first half!  Aaron Rodgers has looked composed in the pocket thus far, completing 9/12 passes for 147 yards and a quarterback rating of 115.6. His counterpart, Jay Cutler, has overthrown a few passes and is 4/8 for 61 yards and a rating of 67.4.  An easy statistical reference for this game can be found here.  Rodgers has picked apart this Bears defense, finding Greg Jennings to the tune of 4 catches for 78 yards.  The Packers are currently topping the Bears 230-79 in terms of total yards, and seem to be in control of this game.  One concern for the Packers is the departure of Chad Clifton to the locker room with a stinger.  His return is questionable and his abscence is detrimental to the Packers O-Line.  A concern for the Bears is Jay Cutler's throws; he seems content to throw it up into coverage and has attempted some risky screen passes to Matt Forte when throwing it into the ground would be a much safer play.  Check in later for a review of this NFC North rivalry, the oldest in the NFL!

The NBA season is 'Heat'ing up! A midseason report on the Eastern Conference

Hello all, sorry that I have not been updating the blog daily.  Thursday was my 22nd birthday so there was various festivities regarding that over the past few days, not to mention work for my class and Skyping with my girlfriend (I am behind the times as I just downloaded Skype a few days ago).  Anyways, this past week marks the midpoint of the NBA season.  All the NBA teams have played between 39 and 44 games, roughly averaging out to the 41 games that make up half the regular season. 

Today's blog focuses on the Eastern Conference, which has played second fiddle to the Western Conference ever since MJ retired the second time (I still think he should have been called for an offensive foul when he pushed off Byron Russell in Game six of those 1998 NBA finals!)  The Eastern Conference has a large discrepancy between its elite, mediocre weak teams.  The mean winning percentage is .689 for the top five teams, .431 for the middle five teams, and .2826 for the bottom five teams.  That's a cumulative winning percentage of .467, so clearly the Eastern Conference is the weaker conference overall.  However, that does not mean that some Eastern Conference teams should not have NBA title hopes!  Below I group Eastern Conference teams into three categories regarding their playoff chances and outlook for the rest of the season:

Contenders
1. Boston Celtics - Talent is never a question with this team.  Perserverance and health is.  Can this team hold up throughout the season?  Will the Celtics be able to rest Allen, Pierce, and Garnett a bit down the stretch so they are fresh for the playoffs?  Currently sporting a 33-9 record, it's pretty impressive what the Celtics are doing without Kendrick Perkins and the minor injuries which caused Rajon Rondo and Kevin Garnett to miss some games.  However, one red flag does show up.  The Celtics are 25-5 against the Eastern Conference, meaning that their schedule the rest of the way will have a heavier dose of Western Conference opponents and some tough west coast roadtrips.

Projected Record: 61-21. #1 seed in the East

2. Miami Heat - the Heatles, Kings of South Beach (my apologies to the U for stealing there swagger), MV3.  The acquisition of Chris Bosh and LeBron James this summer gives the Heat the most talented roster in the league for the next six years, and gave my girlfriend, a huge LeBron fan, a new team to root for.  Can the Heatles finally mesh as the season continues and become a smashing success like their British counterparts?  They sure are taking the basketball world by storm, like the Beatles did to the United States in 1964.  If all three can stay healthy during the playoffs, its hard not to like this team's chances of winning it all.  Also, they have some role players who have integrated themselves well with the three superstars.  Joel Anthony grabs a lot of boards and plays tough defense, while Mike Miller and Carlos Arroyo are constant threats from deep.  Expect the Heat to struggle as Bosh, LeBron, and Wade are all nursing minor injuries at the moment.  However, this Heat team should be the most dangerous and talented team in the NBA for the next five years.

Projected Record: 58-24. #2 Seed in the East

3. The Derrick Rose show... Chicago Bulls - Da Bulls are back baby! Best Bulls team since the 1997-1998.  The addition of Carlos Boozer was a huge lift on offense, and Derrick Rose is developing into a superstar.  I am eager to see this team play when both Boozer and Noah are both healthy, as this team will be very hard to beat inside.  Luol Deng is definitely the x-factor for this team.  On nights that he can score, the Bulls will be extremely hard to beat.  Kyle Korver adds an outside threat, and Rose's distribution continues to improve.  The Bulls should, barring another injury to Boozer, be one of the top teams in the East for the next several seasons.

Projected Record: 56-26. #3 Seed in the East

4. Orlando Magic - It's a bird! It's a plane! Noooo, it's DWIGHT HOWAARRDDD!  This guy is an animal down low, and if he could actually shoot the basketball would be impossible to defend.  The Magic made some blockbuster moves last month to surround Superman with some new talent including Mr. Agent Zero Gilbert Arenas, J-Rich, and Hedo (take two).  Hopefully these three can replace the contributions of Rashard Lewis and Vince Carter, and the emergence of Brandon Bass finally gives this team a true 4 at Power Forward.  The Magic have the talent to make it through the Eastern Conference, but can they make it work with these new players joining Dwight and co?

Projected Record 55-27. #4 Seed in the East

5. Atlanta Hawks - Soaring to... mediocrity.  The Hawks have the pieces to contend with any team, however, they lack a true superstar.  Joe Johnson is a great shooting guard and a matchups nightmare considering his height for a SG, Josh Smith is one of the most athletic players in the game and a beast in the paint, and Al Horford is a great rebounder and solid around the rim.  This team lacks a championship-caliber point guard, as Mike Bibby and Jamal Crawford do not fit the bill.  Depth is an issue on the Hawks as well, especially at the power forward and center positions.  This team will continue to be impressively mediocre, unless Josh Smith and Al Horford break out even more.

Projected Record 53-29. #5 Seed in the East

Pretenders
6. New York Knicks - Possibly the most exciting team to watch in basketball, the Knicks score five more ppg then any Eastern Conference team.  However, like all Mike D'Antoni teams, they don't play much defense either.  Raymond Felton is excelling in D'Antoni's system and meshes really well with Amare Stoudemire.  Wilson Chandler and Danillo Gallinari are great complements to Amare with their outside shooting, but besides Amare this team is undersized, one cause of a weak defense.  This team can compete with anyone on any given night, but is just too volatile to succeed in the playoffs.

Projected Record 44-38. #6 Seed in the East

7. Milwaukee Bucks - This team just can't seem to score any points!  Brandon Jennings has been out since December and may not return for another week.  Andrew Bogut is solid at center, but the team is mired in mediocrity with John Salmons, Corey Maggette, Carlos Delfino, and Ersan Ilyasova all fitting similar roles at the 3 and 4.  The Bucks may play good defense but they lack the size and scoring capabilities to be competitive against the top teams in the East.

Projected Record 40-42. #7 Seed in the East

8. Philadelphia 76ers - The Sixers strike me as similar to the Bucks.  They have a young, talented point guard, some good scoring on the wings, and an injury prone center.  Elton Brand's health is the key to this team making the playoffs.  If he can stay healthy, they could very well sneak in with a .500 record.  If not? Well they could be heading for the lottery again.  Andre Iguodala is a dirty talent at small forward, and Thaddeus Young provides a spark off the bench.  This Sixers team, with the exception of Brand, is young and should continue to grow, but don't expect more than a first round sweep by Boston or Miami in the playoffs.

Projected Record 38-44.  #8 Seed in the East

9. Charlotte Bobcats - The Bobcats lack a superstar and a solid center, so scoring points is an issue for this team.  Stephen Jackson and Gerald Wallace lead the way for the 'Cats, and can create mismatches at their respective positions of SG and SF.  I just cannot put my faith in a team that starts Kwame Brown at center, and has DJ Augustin running the point.  Both these players make questionable decisions on the court, and Augustin needs to work on his distribution.  Expect mediocrity from Charlotte the rest of the way. Although they could sneak into the playoffs, I don't expect them to.

Projected Record 36-46.  Getting ready for next year!

10. Indiana Pacers - Its hard to have confidence in such a young team, but the Pacers could surprise!  Danny Granger has a young supporting cast in Darren Collison, Brandon Rush, and Roy Hibbert.  However, Mike Dunleavy is old and nowhere near as effective as he was a few years ago.  Darren Collison needs to do a better job passing the ball and creating looks for his teammates, as the Pacers rank 21st in the league in APG.  However, rebounding is a strength for this team and should continue to improve as Hibbert develops.

Projected Record 36-46. Getting ready for next year but excited for the future!

Lottery Bound
11. Detroit Pistons - The Pistons have struggled to score points and rebound all year.  Surely this team misses the Wallaces from a few years ago, as Ben Wallace isn't the player he once was!  Detroit ranks 29th in the league in RPG at 38.2, part of the reason why they are only scoring 95.1 PPG.  Rebuilding with older players like Tracy McGrady and Richard Hamilton on their way out should set the Pistons up for success in the upcoming years.  Building around a young core of Rodney Stuckey, Austin Daye, Charlie Villanueva, and Greg Monroe should help the Pistons climb up the East standings as the year's progress.

Projected Record 33-49.  Lottery bound in D-town!

12.  Washington Wizards - Anyone up for 'doing the John Wall?'  Sending Agent Zero packing was a smart move for a Wizards team that is changing its identity.  At this time last year its nucleus was Caron Butler, Antawn Jamison, and Gilbert Arenas. None of these players remain.  Andray Blatche has flourished this year as well as Nick Young, who just flat out scores.  Al Thornton and Rashard Lewis clog the SF position, and one should probably be traded before the trade deadline.  Expect the Wizards to improve a bit throughout the rest of the year, but not too much!

Projected Record 30-52. Watch out for John Wall as the year goes on!

13. Toronto Raptors - Not much to say about the Raptors: they really miss my favorite dinosaur Chris Bosh.  They don't have a true Center as Bargnani isn't big enough down low.  DeMar DeRozan is turning into a good scorer, but the pieces are just not in place to form a strong team.  Defense is a weakness for this club, as they allow 104.6 PPG.  Expect the Raptors to keep struggling unless they pick up a strong draft pick!

Projected Record 26-56.  Hoping to draft Jared Sullinger next year!

14.  New Jersey Nets - The Nets are a pretty melodramatic club, now that the Carmelo Anthony talks have finished.  Brook Lopez continues to develop into a stronger scorer, but where is the rebounding?  Kris Humphries rebounds better than Lopez, who has no excuse to be struggling like this.  Derrick Favors should continue to develop over the next few years, and Anthony Morrow and Devin Harris are still pretty young.  Signing Carmelo to a long-term deal during the offseason would be a clutch pull for the Nets, but they are missing a scoring piece like him to contend

Projected Record 24-58.  Working toward a (hopefully) bright future!

And finally...

15.  Cleveland Cavaliers - Please stay LeBron, Please stay LeBron, pleaaaseee?  And... no! LeBron takes his talents to South Beach.  This season's Cleveland Cavaliers are totally lost without LeBron, and injuries to Anderson Varejao and Ramon Sessions have not helped their cause.  Antawn Jamison can try to carry the scoring load, but seems unwilling to do so.  Expect these Cavaliers to continue to falter, as they have not established an identity or rallied around a new leader in the lockerroom since LeBron took his talents to South Beach.

Projected Record 15-67.  Trying to get that #1 pick and still mourning the loss of LeBron!

Minnesota Vikings to LA? A viewpoint on a potential move

As you may know, the Minnesota Vikings lease on the Metrodome expires at the end of the 2011 football season.  Many Minnesota citizens and even some politicians have called for the financing of a new stadium, but that will cost at least $900 million dollars.  Independent gubernatorial candidate Tom Horner suggested a proposal through which the team would pay 40 percent of the cost to finance the new stadium, while the state would issue forty year bonds for approximately $32 million a year and fans would bear part of the burden, most likely through higher ticket prices.  However, Horner was not elected.  Mark Dayton is pushing for a new Vikings stadium, but how possible is that after what happened to the Metrodome?

An article released on ESPN today states that 'replacing the snow-damaged roof of the Metrodome would likely take five to six months, raising the possibility of affecting next season's schedule for the Minnesota Vikings.'  Depending on the timing of these repairs, they could extend to late summer and the August start of the NFL exhibition season.  State lawmakers are trying to produce a proposal with a new location, stadium type, and a financing plan.  As feasible as this may be, there is no chance the Vkings will be playing in the Metrodome in 2012.

Unfortunately, I think these efforts are a waste of time.  Lets send the Vikings to the promised land: Los Angeles!  Yes the Los Angeles Vikings sounds ridiculous, and some mascots would have to be changed, but the Raiders was not fitting for LA either.   Los Angeles has not had an NFL franchise since 1995, when the Rams moved to St. Louis and the Raiders to Oakland.  In more serious news, two parties have approached the Vikings about a potential relocation, one being AEG who is currently working on designing the LA Event Center, which could house a football team and would be located near the Staples Center.  One can find out more about the LA Event Center here, and below are pictures of several designs:

Besides AEG, Los Angeles Real Estate billionare Ed Roski has been in talks with the NFL for awhile about bringing a team back to Los Angeles.  Roski is willing to finance a stadium largely with his own money.  Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger is expected to sign a bill which would approve of an environmental exemption to build such a stadium.  Roski plans to start courting teams after the Super Bowl.  Could and should Ziggy Wulf listen to these firm's offers?  I believe so.  The Minneapolis-St. Paul market is at a population of just under 3 million people, much less then that of the 17 million in the Greater Los Angeles area.  Higher ticket prices in LA could make the team more profitable, and would be a more attractive destination for players to play.  Another benefit to the Vikings potential move to LA is the division alignments.  Division alignments would not be skewed by this potential move.  Here are my proposed division alignments for 2012 with the divisions affected:

        NFC North                                NFC West           
     Chicago Bears                         Arizona Cardinals
      Detroit Lions                          Los Angeles Vikings
  Green Bay Packers                    San Francisco 49ers
    St. Louis Rams                          Seattle Seahawks

The St. Louis Rams would move into the NFC North, as the Bears and Packers are much more regional then the Seahawks, 49ers, and Cardinals.  The Los Angeles Vikings would then be playing against Western opponents.  This would be a simple shift and would not require an elaborate restructuring like when the Houston Texans entered the NFL.  So here's to the Vikings moving to LA?  Time will tell whether or not it will actually happen, but judging by the potential designs of the new stadium I surely hope it does!

Tennis Anyone? A Preview of the 2011 Aussie Open

Hey guys, hope everyone had an excellent weekend!  Although the tournament started yesterday I will be previewing the Australian Open today.  As a pretty big tennis guy, its only fair that I do the sport some justice as most people could care less about tennis...!  The hype generated by this tournament is that Rafael Nadal can complete the 'Rafa Slam' by winning this tournament.  He won the French Open, Wimbledon, and the U.S. Open last year, so this would make four in a row if he triumphs down under.  On the women's side, the field is pretty open! Serena Williams is sidelined with an injury, opening things up as she has been pretty dominant the past few years on tour.  Lets first take a look at the women's favorites and then at the men's. 

2011 Women's Australian Open: The Favorites

Kim Clijsters - The 2010 U.S. Open winner has been the most consistent woman on tour as of late, and this Aussie Open looks like a great opportunity for her to add to the three U.S Opens she already has.

Caroline Wozniacki - The young Swiss girl is currently #1 in the world, so you can't not call her a favorite right?  Although Wozniacki has never won a major, her powerful strokes and consistent results could help her win her first Slam.

Venus Williams - Never count her out! Even though she hasn't been very good on any surface but grass over the past five years, I still think she has something left in the tank! Expect her to make a run down under

Justine Henin - Why not? She has great ground strokes. However, a lingering elbow injury may contribute to decline.  If she looks healthy, watch out!

Maria Sharapova - Not a serious contender, as she is too inconsistent. But lets be honest, who wouldn't want to see her out there for the majority of this tournament?

Predicted Winner? Clijsters.  If not Clijsters? Wozniacki.

Now for the Men's Draw...

2011 Australian Open Men's Favorites

Rafael Nadal - He is clearly the best player on the men's tour right now.  He has a lethal kick serve and has the best range of any player on tour.  However, he will have to serve very well to complete the Rafa slam, as the Rebound Ace surface can favor big servers and provide the players with interesting bounces.

Roger Federer - He won it last year and is playing great tennis right now.  I feel like the only player that can consistently beat him right now is Nadal, so if Federer doesn't have to play Nadal in this tournament, I don't see him losing a match.  The Fed has enough left in the tank to win two or three majors, and the 2011 Australian Open is a great opportunity for him.

Novak Djokovic- The third best player in the world right now, just a step below Nadal and Federer.  As entertaining as he is, his conditioning is an issue and he will have to get pretty fortunate to defeat Nadal or Federer, even though he is a past Australian Open Champ

Andy Murray -  Made the final here against Federer last year, can the Scot finally break through?  He will have to serve very well to defeat the likes of Nadal or Federer, and is vulnerable to losing to players like Andy Roddick or Tomas Berdych.

Likely Winner? Federer.  If not Federer? Nadal

Hopefully these predictions turn out to be true.  Once the semifinals roll around I hope to blog about the tournament again.  Best of luck to Andy Roddick, but I feel that he is too old and inconsistent to compete at the highest level anymore.  At least he has her to keep him happy.  Hopefully I can watch a bit of this tournament over the upcoming week, and I intend to watch at least some of the final Sunday morning January 30th! (sorry Marilynn, I'm sure you will understand and hopefully watch a bit with me).  Until then hoping for a great tournament!

Final Reflection on Patriots-Jets

Oh how the mighty have fallen.  First the #1 seeded Falcons succumbed to the #6 seeded Packers, and now the #6 seeded Jets defeated the powerful New England Patriots, who had looked unstoppable the past two months, specifically the last time they played these same Jets.  In this AFC East showdown, the game ball goes to the New York Jets defense.  Darrelle Revis had great coverage on Deion Branch all night, knocking a few balls loose and disrupting a few passes.  Antonio Cromarite had a key onside kick return inside the New England 20, which all but sealed the outcome.  David Harris had, in my opinion, the most important play of the game, an interception which stopped a New England drive which seemed destined for the endzone.  Nevermind the fact that Nick Folk barely missed a field goal three plays later, missing an opportunity to score three points is much better than being in the whole seven points.  An early lead and strong defense in the first half allowed the Jets to control the clock and run the ball with LaDanian Tomlinson and Shonn Greene, who combined had 27 carries for 119 yards and a touchdown (LT also caught a touchdown). 

Due to their excellent coverage in the secondary, the Jets were able to put pressure on Brady all night, sacking him five times and hitting him seven times.  As composed as Tom Brady is in the pocket and although he had a strong performance today, he looked flustered and uncomfortable for most of the afternoon.  The Patriots went 5-14 on third down, mostly because of excellent coverage in the secondary. 

Several concluding thoughts on this slugfest: (1) Props to Mark Sanchez for a solid game and no mistakes.  Just one or two bad decisions by Sanchez could have swung the game in the Patriots favor, but Sanchez was calm and collected and faced little pressure from the Patriots most of the game.  Certainly it helps when you sport D'Brickshaw Ferguson and Nick Mangold on your offensive line, but Sanchez played a very smart football game.  (2)  Why did Belicheck go for that fake punt?  The risk was not worth the reward on the fake punt attempted by the Patriots.  Why risk giving the Jets the ball with less than half the field to score when the Patriots would have needed at least twenty more yards to kick a field goal, no guarantee against a strong Jets defense?  (3)  Props to Rex Ryan for getting his team fired up for this game.  The combination of the trash talk and the humiliation of the 45-3 loss last time the Jets visited Gillete Stadium must have instilled a fire in their team.

Update on Patriots-Jets: Halftime reflection

Looks like the boys from New York are backing up all the trash talk from earlier in the week as the Jets are up 14-3 on the Patriots at halftime.  In terms of yardage this has been a pretty even ballgame, the Jets have 157 total yards to 127 for the Patriots.  However, a key interception by Tom Brady in Jets territory stalled a Patriots drive, and a fumbled fake punt led to a Jets touchdown to Braylon Edwards with less then a minute left in the first half.  As much as I love Braylon and David Harris, I can't say I'm rooting for them to continue with their antics as it would hurt to see the Patriots lose this game. 

Looking at Tom Brady's stats, he is 10/17 for 99 yards and an interception.  Lets see if he can get the ball a bit more downfield.  The Jets are pretty talented in the secondary with Darrel Revis, Antonio Cromarite, and Dwight Lowery back there playing defense, but if anyone can slice this secondary up it is Brady.  I am looking forward to a strong second-half showing from Brady and the Pats that hopefully will lead them to victory!

Update on Patriots-Jets: The end of a streak... and Wide Left!

Well... All good things must come to an end, and Tom Brady's streak of pass attempts without an interception just did. At least he was intercepted by former Michigan Wolverine David Harris!  Tom Brady had not thrown an interception since Week 6 against Baltimore, a span of 12 games and 323 pass attempts.  However, Brady and the Patriots looked pretty good on their opening drive despite one errant pass.  The combination of the 'Law Firm' and a 'Woodland Creature' running the football has been pretty effective, and should set up some pass plays later in the game.  Tom Brady is blessed with so many weapons on this football team, and is not limited to Wes Welker, Deion Branch, Brandon Tate, Sam Aiken, Julian Edelman, Rob Gronkowski, Aaron Hernandez, Alge Crumpler, etc.  Expect Brady to keep spread the ball around throughout the game. 

I am currently sporting my new Tom Brady shirt, which I received as a Christmas present from my wonderful girlfriend.  We will see whether this shirt is good or bad luck for the Patriots... who just went up 3-0 following a missed field goal by Nick Folk with a made kick of their own by Shayne Graham...

Drivin toward in-game reflections plus a recap of yesterday's playoff games.

Hey guys, welcome back to the blog.  Today I am going to do some in-game reflections of the Patriots-Jets game, which starts at 4:30 ET / 3: 30 CT.  Considering my love for former Michigan Wolverine Tom Brady, I will be analyzing his play throughout the game!  Yesterday I received a comment that I forgot to mention Tom Brady in my blog about the Patriots-Jets and Bears-Seahawks matchups.  Thanks to Marilynn for pointing that out, as it was unjust of me to neglect my favorite player! (ps. I am wearing my Tom Brady shirt right now!)  Anyways, yesterday's football games were great to watch!  The Ravens-Steelers game will certainly be discussed for a long time, as the Steelers came out with such intensity in the second half.  Like I predicted in my blog on Friday, superior Quarterback play from Ben Roethlisberger helped lead the Steelers to victory, while some mistakes by Joe Flacco doomed the Ravens.  This was the same case for the Packers-Falcons game later last night, as Aaron Rodgers played a phenomenal game while Matt Ryan threw some suspect passes. Lets take a look at each quarterbacks respective statlines:

                               C/ATT   YDS   AVG   TD   INT   RATING
Ben Roethlisberger    19/32     226     7.1      2        0         101.8
Joe Flacco                16/30     125     4.2      1        1          61.1
Aaron Rodgers          31/36     366    10.2     3       0          136.8
Matt Ryan                 20/29     186     6.4      1        2         69.0

Ben Roethlisberger and Aaron Rodgers both posted at least 100 yards passing and 40 points more in passer rating than their respective opposing quarterbacks, Joe Flacco and Matt Ryan.  Aaron Rodgers performance is especially significant, considering he led the Packers to only 17 points last month against Atlanta and had not won a playoff game until this year.  Looks like the Packers made a great decision getting rid of Brett Favre and installing this guy into the offense.  Besides, it's too cold to text a lot in Green Bay anways!

Check back here soon for your updates on the Patriots-Jets game!  I'm sure Rex Ryan is rooting for a lot of punting, as he likes players with good feet, like this guy, whose name is more synonomous with 'Dude? Where's my Car?' than football!

         

Playoffs! Take 2!

Thanks to those who read yesterday's blog predicting who would win today's football games between Baltimore and Pittsburgh, and Atlanta and Green Bay.  At this time Baltimore is up 21-7 at haltime, who would have guessed that?  Baltimore has not scored 21 points in its last five meetings with Pittsburgh, yet is has 21 at halftime.  Looks like my 24-13 prediction in favor of Pittsburgh will not work out, but Pittsburgh could mount a comeback to win this game.  Never count Ben Roethlisberger out in the playoffs.  He is a proven winner.

Anyways, today I focus on the New England Patriots vs New York Jets and Seattle Seahawks vs Chicago Bears games.  The Patriots enter this game sporting an eight game winning streak, inculding a 45-3 stomping of the Jets on December 6th.  The Jets are fresh off a thrilling 17-16 victory over the Indianapolis Colts, yet lost three of their last five regular season games, including a 38-34 loss at Chicago, 10-6 loss at home to Miami, and the aformentioned loss to the Patriots.   They did pick up a big win @ the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 15, so maybe that win coupled with last weeks can motivate the Jets to put their best foot, sorry Rex, forward against the Patriots tomorrow.  I looked at quarterbacks in yesterday's game (ironic that Joe Flacco threw a pick right as I wrote this), so today I'll look at defense as a predictor of who will win these games, starting with the Jets and their games against the Patriots and in the playoffs over the past two years.

Team Opp  Year  YA  Int FF FR Sk PA  W/L
NY Jets    Patriots    2009       299      1        0       0      0       9          W
NY Jets @Patriots    2009       410      0        2       1      2      31          L
NY Jets    Bengals    2009       281      1        2       1      3      14         W
NY Jets @Chargers 2009       344      2        2       0      2      14         W
NY Jets @Colts       2009       461      0        2       1      2      30         L
NY Jets    Patriots    2010       291      2        1       1      1      14         W
NY Jets  @Patriots  2010       405      0        0       0       3     45         L
NY Jets  @Colts     2010       312      0        0        0      1      16         W

Patriots   @Jets        2009       254      0        2       0       2      16         L
Patriots       Jets        2009       226      4        1       1       2      14         W
Patriots      Ravens    2009       268      1        1       1      0       33         L
Patriots   @Jets        2010       336      0         0       0      3      28         L
Patriots       Jets        2010       301      3        1       0       1      3           W

A glaring statistic from this data is the difference between the Jets defensive performance at home and at the Patriots.  In both games at the Patriots the past two years, the Jets have allowed over 400 yards and given up at least thirty points.  In two losses to the Jets in 2009 and 2010, the points the Patriots gave up was 28.  One can expect this game to be closer than last months encounter, but the Jets don't have an answer for the Patriots offense on the road.

Make it:  Patriots 34   Jets 17

Like the Patriots and Jets, the Seahawks and Bears have already played this season, resulting in a 23-20 for the Seahawks @ Soldier Field.  Is this Week 6 matchup indicative of how both these teams are playing today? No.  Should it give Seattle even more confidence coming off its win against the New Orleans Saints? Yes.  However, playing in Chicago is totally different then in Seattle.  Lets take a look at Matt Hasselbeck's performance in away playoff games and Chicago's defense in home playoff games.

Year   Opponent   Passing  Yards  TD/INT  W/L
2004    Green Bay   25-45      305      0 / 1        L
2007     Chicago      18-33      195      1 / 1        L
2008    Green Bay   19-33      194      1 / 0        L

Matt Hasselbeck has never won a playoff football game on the road, and recently he has been ineffective to the tune of less than 200 passing yards in his past two road playoff starts.  Can the magic from last week continue against a strong Bears defense?  Lets take a look at the Bears defense at home in their last few trips to the playoffs.

Year   Opponent  YA   Int  FF  FR  Sk  PA  W/L
2006     Seattle      306   1     0     0     3    24    W
2006       NO        375    1     4     3     3    14   W
2005       Car         434   1     3     0     1    29    L
2002       PHI        336    1     0     0     2    33    L

These statistics show that the Bears defense gives up a lot of yards against good football teams, but how relevant are these statistics to this year's Chicago team?  Not much.  The 2010 Bears ranked 9th in total defense, allowing 314 yards/game.  They forced 23 fumbles and recovered 14, and intercepted 21 passes.  I think the Bears D gets it done and overcomes a few Jay Cutler turnovers in what should be another tight game.

Make it: Bears 17   Seahawks 13

Playoffs? Talking about Playoffs?

Hello everyone, hope you enjoyed yesterday's blog about the Big Ten conference and my propositions to change the division names.  Today we segway, not like this, into the realm of the National Football League and tomorrow's divisional round games between the Pittsburgh Steelers and Baltimore Ravens, and Green Bay Packers and Atlanta Falcons.  I anticipate two tight, evenly matched games tomorrow and a clear winner for both games does not come to mind.  If I were betting on these games, I would probably resort to my girlfriend's opinion, as much to my chagrin she seems to be correct about everything lately. For a more practical take on tomorrow's games, lets take a look at some statistics to try and predict the outcomes.  I feel that quarterback play is extremely important to succeeding in the NFL playoffs so below are analyses of each quarterback's past playoff performances.

Saturday January 15th, 2011

4:30 PM ET

Baltimore Ravens @ Pittsburgh Steelers

Past five matchups:

Dec 5, 2010 PIT 13 BAL 10

Oct 3, 2010 BAL 17 PIT 14

Dec 27, 2009 PIT 23 BAL 20

Nov 29, 2009 BAL 20, PIT 17

Jan 18, 2009 PIT 23 BAL 14

As one can tell, defense dominates the Steelers-Ravens series.  One intangible in favor of the Steelers is the fact that the Steelers have won the last six games between the two in which Ben Roethlisberger has played. 
However, the Ravens did beat the Steelers in Pittsburgh already this year, so they know what it's like to win a bigtime rivalry game on the road.  One red flag stands out to me for Baltimore: Joe Flacco's past playoff performance; he has not played well enough to win games for Baltimore. Below is a list of his past playoff passing performances.

Year  Opponent  Passing  Yards  TD  INT  Rating
2008     MIA         9-23        135     0       0      59.1
2008     TEN         11-22      161     1       0      89.4
2008     PIT           13-30      141     0       3      18.2
2009      NE           4-10        34       0      1       10.0
2009     IND          20-35      189     0       2      48.4
2010      KC          25-34      265     2       0      115.4

Flacco has only thrown for 200 yards once and has only thrown three touchdowns in six postseason starts.  Although his receiving core is improved this year and I cannot see him repeating his performance from January 2009, I still do not think Flacco has what it takes to beat the Steelers with his arm.  If the Ravens are going to win this football game it will be on the shoulders of their defense or in the hands of Ray Rice.  Ben Roethlisberger's playoff success and ability to extend plays outside the pocket gives the Steelers an advantage in what Terrell Suggs refers to as 'WWIII'

Make it:  Steelers 24  Ravens 13

As for the night game...

Saturday January 15th, 2011

8:00 PM ET

Green Bay Packers @ Atlanta Falcons

Past Five Matchups:
Nov 28, 2010 ATL 20 GNB 17 

Oct 5, 2008 ATL 27 GNB 24 
Nov 13, 2005 GNB 33 ATL 25
Jan 4, 2003  ATL 27 GNB 7
Sep 8, 2002 GNB 37 ATL 34

Green Bay and Atlanta have only played five times in the past nine years, and only once in the playoffs in 2003 with Michael Vick at Quarterback.  Judging by the past two matchups between the teams, this seems like a matchup with potential for a very close contest.  Aaron Rodgers and the Packers looked strong against the Eagles defense, while Clay Mathews and friends shut down Michael Vick and a high powered Eagles offense for most of the game.  However, Eagles kicker David Akers missed two medium range field goals due to the poor weather conditions.  The Packers do not have that luxury in the Georgia Dome.  Considering the past two matchups between these teams, I think this game will come down to quarterbacks, just like the Baltimore-Pittsburgh game.  Can Aaron Rodgers lead his team to victory even though the Pack went 3-5 on the road this season?  Lets take a look at Rodgers career stats against the Falcons and playoff stats, compared to Matt Ryan against the Packers.

Aaron Rodgers

Year  Opponent  Passing  Yards  TD  INT  Rating

2008      ATL       25-37      313      3       1      109.4

2009      ARI        28-42      423      4       1      121.4

2010      ATL       26-35       344     1       0      114.5

2010      PHI        18-27      180      3       0      122.5

Matt Ryan

Year  Opponent  Passing  Yards  TD  INT  Rating

2008       GB         16-26      194     2       1      94.1

2008      ARI         26-40      199     2       2      72.8

2010       GB         24-28      197     1       0      107.9

Clearly Aaron Rodgers has outplayed Matt Ryan in both these teams meetings the past three years, but is that enough for the Packers to win at Atlanta?  Can Michael Turner carry the load to the tune of 110 yards on a 4.8 YPC average and a touchdown like he did in Week 12?  Which defense will show up to force key stops and turnovers.  I think the Pack and my main man, Charles Woodson, will make enough plays to swing this game in favor of the men from Green Bay.

Make it: Packers 27  Falcons 23

Doing Away with the Leaders and Legends Divisions: A Solution to a Presumptuous Proposition

Today Big Ten Commisioner Jim Delaney announced that the Big Ten would keep the original football division names decided on December 16th: The Leaders Division and the Legends Division.  Seriously? How arrogant and pompous can you be Mr. Delany?  Keep in mind the Big Ten has not won a National Title since Ohio State did so in 2002, and that traditional powers such as Michigan and Penn St have struggled as of late.  Although the name accounts for the many iconic coaches and athletes that played in the Big Ten, it is far too broad and could be used for many conferences. 

Besides the distasteful name, I see one other glaring flaw in the division scheduling: the rivalries!  Below is a chart, courtesy of Wikipedia that displays the rivalries scheduled to be played each year:

Legends Division        Leaders Division 


Minnesota - Wisconsin 59–52–8       Michigan - Ohio State 57–44–6

Northwestern - Illinois 46–52–5        Iowa - Purdue 33–45–3

Michigan State - Indiana 41–15–2     Nebraska - Penn State 6–7–0

              Overall Inter-Divisional Record 242–214–24

A glaring problem is the rivalries "established" between Michigan St and Indiana, Iowa and Purdue, and Penn St and Nebraska.  Iowa's main rivals seem to be Wisconsin and Illinois, although Northwestern has had their number lately and lies in the same state as Illinois.  In my opinion,  Iowa-Nebraska, Michigan St-Penn St, and Indiana-Purdue would make much more sense.  Iowa and Nebraska are regional rivals considering the large border they share, Michigan St and Penn St have been playing on the last Saturday of the year since Penn St joined the Big Ten, and is always a competitive football game.  Indiana and Purdue are in the same state, yet neither has been historically good at football.  Both lack a strong rival so pairing these two together seems necessary.  Would this mean a division realignment? Yes, as Nebraska and Iowa are currently in the same division, as well as Indiana and Purdue.  Lets take a look at the Brereton Proviso, which includes renaming both divisions.

Ford Division             Owens Division
Michigan                                          Ohio St
Minnesota                                        Wisconsin
Northwestern                                   Illinois
Nebraska                                         Iowa
Michigan St                                      Penn St
Indiana                                             Purdue

Improvements from the previous model include:
(1) Better regional rivalries
(2) Better division names, Why not honor two of the most influential people of the 20th century, Gerald Ford and Jesse Owens, as opposed to looking like a conference full of arrogance? 
(3) Fair scheduling.  Although the Owens division may be a little bit stronger, the traditional power of Michigan, Ohio St, Nebraska, and Penn St are spread out evenly among the two divisions.

Lets be honest. The Big Ten is all about upholding tradition and excellence.  Lets not let our division names do the talking.  These improvements would honor our predecessors, allow for better rivalries, and let the Big Ten focus on what it does best, playing great football!

The Value of LeBron James to the Cleveland Cavaliers and the aftermath of 'The Decision' on this year's Cavaliers

Wow Cleveland has fallen! Following some of last night's Los Angeles Lakers-Cleveland Cavaliers game made me cringe looking at the box score.  A final score of 112-57? Seriously? The last well publicized game I remember being so lopsided was when the Boston Celtics absolutely crushed the Lakers 131-92 in Game 6 of the 2008 finals.  57 was the least the Cavs had ever scored in a game and the least the Lakers allowed since the introduction of the shot clock in 1954.  The Cavaliers currently boast the NBA's worst record at 8-30, and LeBron seems to be reveling in the glory of their downfalls.  I received a text from my girlfriend earlier today citing a tweet from LeBron referring to last night's demolition of the Cavaliers. 

Obviously much of the Cavaliers decline hinged on one 'Decision,' in which superstar and two-time MVP Lebron James decided to 'take his talents to South Beach' to form 'The Heatles' with Dwayne Wade, Chris Bosh, and friends down in Miami.  To the chagrin of Cleveland fans, Lebron was gone and the Cavs were forced to carry on without him.  Lets take a look at the current Cavaliers lineup compared to last year's:

January 2010                  January 2011

G - Mo Williams                                        G - Mo Williams
G - Anthony Parker                                   G - Manny Harris
F - Lebron James                                     F - Antawn Jamison
F - JJ Hickson                                           F - JJ Hickson
C - Shaq                                                    C - Ryan Hollins

The only players that remain are Mo Williams and JJ Hickson, as Anthony Parker is currently injured and Shaq and Lebron have moved to other teams.  However, the loss of Parker and O'Neal is relatively marginal.  Lebron James WAS the Cleveland Cavaliers.  Below are some statistics that one may be familiar with, but some others that may truly stand out, courtesy of Basketball Reference.


Cavaliers All-time Free Throw Attempts
1. LeBron James 814 2005-06
2. LeBron James 773 2009-10
3. LeBron James 771 2007-08
4. LeBron James 762 2008-09
5. LeBron James 701 2006-07
6. LeBron James 636 2004-05
7. Shawn Kemp 635 1999-00
8. Brad Daugherty 579 1990-91
9. Ron Harper 564 1986-87
10. Shawn Kemp 556 1997-98

Cavaliers All-Time Season Points Per Game




1. LeBron James 31.4 2005-06
2. LeBron James 30.0 2007-08
3. LeBron James 29.7 2009-10
4. LeBron James 28.4 2008-09
5. LeBron James 27.3 2006-07
6. LeBron James 27.2 2004-05
7. Mike Mitchell 24.5 1980-81
8. World B. Free 23.4 1985-86
9. Ron Harper 22.9 1986-87
10. World B. Free 22.5 1984-85

The above individual statistics assert Lebron's dominance as the best player ever to play for Cleveland.  But lets be honest here, who was not aware of that?  The significance of Lebron's last two seasons with the Cavaliers, and the claim that he is the best player in the NBA, can be summarized by two short acronyms: PER and WS.  For those who are not familiar with basketball statistics, PER stands for Player Efficiency Rating.  PER, in short, measures a player's per minute productivity.  More information on PER can be found here. WS stands for Win Shares, which I found to be described well in this quote:

"In other words, a Win Share is kind of like baseball's VORP stat...it relies on the assumption that efficiency is the key to wins, looks at a player's offensive efficiency compared to the league average, a player's defensive efficiency compared to the league average, corrects for minutes played, then adds up the corresponding Offensive and Defensive Win Shares to get one number that estimates how many wins that player was worth."

Both PER and WS are sabermetrics.  Sabermetrics attempts to find answers objective questions in sports such as: Which player on the 2003-2004 Detroit Pistons contributed most to the team's offense?  Was Rickey Henderson faster than Tim Raines?  Does Lebron James contribute more to his team than Chris Paul or Kobe Bryant?  Below are recent statistics on PER and WS, cementing Lebron's meaning and impact on the Cavaliers and how different the team is without him.

Win Shares - 2008/2009 NBA       Win Shares - 2009/2010 NBA


1. LeBron James-CLE 20.3                                          1. LeBron James -CLE 18.5
2. Chris Paul-NOH 18.3                                               2. Kevin Durant -OKC 16.1
3. Dwyane Wade-MIA 14.7                                         3. Dwight Howard -ORL 13.2
4. Pau Gasol-LAL 13.9                                                4. Dwayne Wade -MIA 13.0
5. Dwight Howard-ORL 13.8                                       5. Dirk Nowitzki - DAL 12.3

PER - 2008/2009 NBA                   PER - 2009/2010 NBA


1. LeBron James-CLE 31.76                                           1. LeBron James-CLE 31.19
2. Dwyane Wade-MIA 30.46                                          2. Dwayne Wade-MIA 28.10
3. Chris Paul -NOH 30.04                                               3. Kevin Durant-OKC 26.23
4. Dwight Howard-ORL 25.44                                        4. Chris Bosh-TOR 25.11
5. Tim Duncan-SAS 24.51                                               5. Tim Duncan-SAS 24.79

PER Ratings and more Sabermetrics from ESPN

Based of off the win share data above, LeBron James was clearly the most valuable player to his team the past two NBA seasons, sporting the highest Win Share value as well as the highest Player Efficiency Rating in both seasons.  These ratings credit the supporting casts of superstars like Kobe Bryant, who does not show up on any of these lists.  The closest Cleveland player on the PER lists is Antawn Jamison in 2009/2010, with a PER of 17.66. He checks in at #66 throughout the entire NBA (don't let his contributions fool you though, he only played for Cleveland for the 2nd half of the year and was a larger contributor when he played for the Wizards earlier in the season).  For 2008/2009, Zydrunas Ilgauskas ranks #53 with a PER of 18.03.  Ilgauskas's Win Shares was 6.6 for that season, while Jamison's was 7.0 for last year. 

In addition to win shares, we have what I believe to be the most important statistic, EWA.  EWA stands for Estimated Wins Added, over a replacement player.  LeBron James had an EWA of 30.5 in 2009/2010 and 32.3 in 2008/2009, both being tops in the league.  Clearly this impact is gigantic, as if not for him, these numbers predict the Cavaliers would have won 30 or 31 games last year as opposed to the 61 that they did win in the regular season. 

In conclusion, LeBron was more important to the Cavaliers than any single player on any other team.  If not for him, they would have only won half the games they did last year.  His paramount PER, WS, and EWA make him not only the most indispensible player to his team for 2008/2009 and 2009/2010, but the most valuable player in the NBA.  Now that he's a member of the Heat these numbers may decline, but the Cleveland Cavaliers are getting crushed with out him, and the numbers prove their demise.

Michigan Hires Who? A Report on Brady Hoke

Last week, the Rich Rodriguez era ended at the University of Michigan. For many fans, this era was a dark time. A 15-22 record, 6-21 within the Big Ten, 0-1 in bowl games, and most importantly, 0-3 against Ohio State. The allegations against the program for practice violations cast a dark shadow on Rodriguez and his staff, along with the dismissals of highly touted players like Demar Dorsey and Justin Feagin. Seeing former Michigan players blossom at other schools sickens me, as Ryan Mallett, Steven Threet, and Justin Boren are all excelling at Arkansas, Arizona St, and Ohio St, respectively because they did not want to play for Rich Rod.

However, after attempting to lure Jim Harbaugh and Les Miles to return to their alma maters but coming ouy empty handed, Brady Hoke was hired today. For those of you who don't know about Brady Hoke, below is his coaching resume:

• 1983 - Grand Valley State - Defensive Line
• 1984-1986 - Western Michigan - Defensive Line
• 1987-1989 - Toledo - Linebackers
• 1989-1994 - Oregon State - Defensive Line
• 1995-2002 - Michigan - Defensive Line
• 2003-2008 - Ball St
• 2009-2010 - San Diego St
• 2011 - Michigan

Several things jump out from this list. First, he is part of the Michigan family, as he coached the Defensive Line for eight seasons. Second, he has had some success turning around teams in non-BCS conferences. Ball St went from a perennial loser to a Top-25 team for some of 2008, as Hoke's Cardinals, quarterbacked by Nate Davis, went undefeated until losing to Buffalo in the MAC title game. From Ball St, Hoke went on to San Diego State in the Mountain West, and they went from a 4-8 record in his first season to 9-4 his past year, with all their losses coming to bowl teams in Missouri, BYU, TCU, and Utah. San Diego St only lost to TCU by five points at TCU, an impressive achievement considering how strong a program TCU was this year. Hoke's SDSU Aztecs defeated Navy 35-14 in the Poinsettia Bowl.


These achievements should not go unnoticed, but is Hoke ready to coach a premier football program like the University of Michigan? He has never been a head coach in a BCS conference before and has a losing career record. However, he has turned around two programs that have traditionally been terrible. Also, he will have to adjust the Michigan program to his style of football. This may marginalize the value of players that were integral to the team's success during the Rich Rodriguez era, specifically Denard Robinson. It will be interesting to see how Brady Hoke takes the reins of the Michigan football program, and I hope that he can get the players he needs quickly to run his system and return Michigan to its place as a premier college football program.