Analyzing the Carmelo Anthony Trade

Hey guys, sorry about the lack of updates this week!  I was up in Minneapolis on Tuesday and Wednesday for a job fair.  Luckily this fair was worth my time, as I have two (maybe three) second interviews next week so wish me luck!  Anyways, this Thursday was the NBA trade deadline, and a lot of deals went down that could have a strong impact on the NBA not only in this year's playoffs, but for years to come.  The headliner of these deals? A blockbuster deal that resulted in Carmelo Anthony to the New York Knicks.  Below are the exact details of the trade:

Carmelo debuted against the Bucks on Wednesday

New York Knicks acquire: 

• Carmelo Anthony, Forward
• Chauncey Billups, Guard
• Shelden Williams, Forward
• Renaldo Balkman, Forward
• Anthony Carter, Guard
• Corey Brewer, Forward

Gallinari went for 30 points against the Blazers

Denver Nuggets acquire:

• Danilo Gallinari, Forward
• Wilson Chandler, Forward
• Raymond Felton, Guard
• Timofey Mozgov, Center        
• Kosta Koufos, Center
• Knicks first-round pick (2014 or later)
• Warriors' second-round picks in 2012 and 2013
• $3 million

The Knicks essentialy traded the core of their team apart from Amare Stoudemire for Carmelo, the hometown star.  The Knicks are making this deal assuming Carmelo is going to sign an extension, which is a proposed 3 years for $65 million.  However, in my opinion, the purpose of this deal is to put forth a strong core to attract a free-agent point guard to New York.  Chauncey Billups is serviceable for the time being, but clearly the Knicks have their sights on either Chris Paul or Deron Williams in summer 2012.  At that point the Knicks would be able to compete with the Miami Heat for the Eastern Conference, as Boston may have dropped off a bit at point with their superstars aging. 

However, I think Denver makes out better from this current deal.  Playing Danilo Gallinari and Wilson Chandler along with Nene Hilario on the front line gives Denver two things: (1) great size (2) flexibility.  Both Gallinari and Chandler are proven three-point shooters, and both can create mismatches at the small forward position.  Team them with SG Aron Afflalo, who is developing into a threat on the offensive end, his defense has been excellent for a while, and either Ty Lawson or Raymond Felton (UNC reunion!).  The Western Conference is pretty wide open, assuming San Antonio doesn't hold up throughout the entire season and the Lakers don't regain last year's form, and Denver still has a chance to make some noise in the playoffs if everyone can gel.  J.R. Smith should get more looks now that Melo is gone, so watch out if he gets hot!  As for the Knicks, their porous defense can't compete against the likes of Miami, Boston, and Chicago throughout a seven game series.  Carmelo adds little on defense, and the loss of Chandler gives the Knicks even less presence inside in regards to a weakness they had before the trade. 

The Kardashians: Connecting Entertainment to the World of Sports

To some, the Kardashian Family may just be notorious for their exploits on the televeision screen, specifically their TV show Keeping up With the Kardashians, and it's spinoffs Kourtney and Khloe take Miami and Kourtney and Kim take New York.  Kim Kardashian may be most notorized for her sex tape with Ray J, and Kris Jenner may be best known for her role as the manager of her children, especially Kim.  Considering Marilynn is a huge fan (understatement) of the Kardashian family, she can appreciate the various T.V. appearences and advertising campaigns the Kardashian's have been involved in, and which one's have propelled them to stardom and fame.  However, I believe the way the Kardashians have increased their Q-ratings and presence is through their connection to the world of sports. And it all starts with Kris Jenner.

The matriarch of the Kardashian Clan, Kris Jenner was first married to the late Robert Kardashian, an L.A. businessman and attorney for O.J. Simpson in his famous jury trial in 1995.  Mr. Kardashian even let Mr. Simpson stay at his house the day's following the murder.  Kris and Robert divorced in 1990, but not before Kourtney, Kim, Khloe, and Rob Jr. were all born.  Kris proceeded to marry Bruce Jenner in 1991, winner of the decathalon at the 1976 Olympics in Montreal.  I think that this connection has had the greatest impact on the Kardashian family and their interaction with the world of sports. 

Since her sex tape fiasco, Kim Kardashian seems to have followed her mother's footsteps by sticking to the sports world for her male partners.  Kim dated former USC and current New Orleans Saints running back Reggie Bush from July 2007 to July 2009, and then again from October 2009 until they broke up for good in March 2010, a month following his Super Bowl XLIV victory. Kim then moved on to Dallas Cowboys wide receiver Miles Austin, who burst onto the scene as one of the top receivers in the NFL in 2009.  Although the exact time they started dating is up in the air, their relationship went public in July 2010 and lasted until September 2010.  One difficulty in their relationship was that Kim thought Miles was 'uncomfortable' with the celebrity lifestyle, as he had risen from obscurity to stardom in such a short period of time.  Who is Kim dating nowadays?  None other than Kris Humphries of the NBA's New Jersey Nets.  Kim currently runs her family's fashion boutique, D-A-S-H, in NYC, hence dating a Nets player.  Personally, I think she likes how his name starts with a K like her sisters and mother! 

Although the Kardashians have usually been overshadowed by their athletic significant others, this is definitely not the case for Kim and Kris Humphries.  Kris was a relatively unheralded NBA player, with career averages of 4.7 ppg and 6.4 rpg.  However, this year he has taken on a larger role for the Nets, averaging 8.8 ppg and 9.3 rpg for the 2010-2011 season.  Is he scoring better on the court because he's scoring better off the court?  Who knows.  Regardless, the Kardashians love their athletes.

Khloe Kardashian Odom (note the name change) is married to L.A. Lakers star Lamar Odom.  Lamar and Khloe started dating in the middle of 2009 and were married in September 2009. Talk about love at first sight!  The couple are nearly inseperable, and coincidently, Lamar is having one of his best seasons in the NBA this year.  Clearly having a Kardashian by your side can lead to success on the court?  The Kardashians have continued to increase their exposure, maybe not so accidently, by dating and falling for sports stars.  Consistenly getting themselves out there as one of the most powerful and notorized family's in Hollywood. 

Cheer up Spartan Fans!

Ranked #2 in the nation to begin the season, Michigan State's season has been disappointing, disappointing being an understatement.  Currently sporting a 14-11 overall record, and a 6-7 clip in Big Ten play, the Spartans have slipped into unfamiliar territory and are in danger of missing the NCAA tournament.  Losses to traditional Big Ten bottom-feeders such as Michigan and Iowa were unacceptable, but besides that the Spartans have played a very strong schedule this year.  Lets take a look at the teams Michigan State has lost to this season and their rankings:

Michigan State Spartans
14-11 (6-7) RPI = 46  SOS = 5

   Date        Opponent         Score         Ranking  
11/23          UConn            70-67         #13
12/1             Duke              84-79         #5
12/7           Syracuse           72-58        #17
12/22           Texas             67-55         #3
1/8              Penn St.           66-62        N/R
1/18             Illinois             71-62         N/R
1/22             Purdue            86-76        #11
1/27            Michigan          61-57        N/R
2/2                Iowa              72-52        N/R
2/6              Wisconsin        82-56        #10
2/15            Ohio St            71-61        #2

Clearly Michigan State has played against many tough opponents, and can flaunt a win against #10 Wisconsin to the NCAA tourney committee as a quality win.  In most years, a team with a 14-11 record would have little chance to make the NCAA tournament, however, this year the bubble is very weak.  The addition of three more teams to the tournament is a boon to teams looking for at large bids.  These bids seem to be up for grabs for middle-feeders of the top conferences like the Big Ten, Big East, Big 12, ACC.  Play-in games now exist for seeds other then #16, a huge bonus for Michigan State.  The remaining schedule for the Spartans is shown below, along with my predictions for each game:

Date    Opponent   W/L
2/19    vs. Illinois     W  - The Illini are reeling and Demetri McCamey is struggling, Spartans win this one
2/22   @ Minnesota L  -  A balanced Gophers team exacts revenge from Decembers matchup @ the Bres
2/27    vs. Purdue    L - State cant handle an elite Purdue team looking to solidify a strong NCAA seed
3/2      vs. Iowa       W - Spartans crush an Iowa team that they played their worst game of the year against
3/5     @ Michigan  W  - State beats a tough Michigan team on the road to give it hope for an NCAA tournament birth.

Final Record: 17-13 (8-8)

An NCAA birth will hinge on Michigan State's success in the Big Ten Tournament.  If Michigan St can make it to the final of the Big Ten Tournament, I am certain they will lock up an NCAA birth. Semifinals? Most likely?  Quarterfinals? Don't count on it.  However, this Michigan State team seems to have the resolve to win when it matters most, as State has performed quite well in it's overtime games earlier this season.  Expect to see Kalin Lucas and the Spartans making noise in the month of March again this year, even if it won't be at the Final Four like many expected.

'The King' has Yet to Ascend the Throne

Looks like King James and the Heatles aren't ready to ascend the thrown just quite yet... riding an eight game winning streak into today's tilt with the Boston Celtics at the Garden, it was expected that the Heat would take down a crippled Celtics squad and affirm their status as the top team in the Eastern Conference.  Not so fast Miami!  The Boston Celtics held on to defeat the Miami Heat 85-82 and improved to 3-0 against them this season, this time without Shaquille and Jermaine O'Neal and only one single point from Paul 'The Truth' Pierce. 

So how do the Celtics contain the Heat so well?  Boston held the sharpshooters surrounding LeBron, Wade, and Bosh to a low three point percentage.  Mike Miller and Eddie House went a combined 1 of 9 from beyond the arc, and the Heat as a team shot 3 for 16 for an 18.8% 3-point percentage.  Guarding the perimeter was a concern coming into this game, as stretching the floor would allow LeBron and D-Wade to penetrate the lane in an easier fashion.  The Heatles accounted for 62 of Miami's 82 points, so clearly the Celtics did their job holding the Miami bench, Mario Chalmers, and Zydrunas Ilgauskas in check. 

This was a concern earlier in the year and continues to be cause for alarm.  Against strong teams, the supporting cast is just not getting the job done for the Heat.  From what I've seen, I would recommend two things to the Heat: 
(1) Play Joel Anthony more.  Anthony may be a liability on the offensive end, but his strong defensive rebounding and positioning makes him a valuable asset.  In today's game the Heat were +5 in his 21 minutes in the ballgame, more then any other player. 
(2) Give Mike Miller more of the ball.  If any player is going to step up on offense it his him. Also, can one really trust Dwyane Wade to stay healthy all season.  Miller needs to assume a larger role in the offense, regardless of whether he is needed to step in.

Hopefully the Kings of South Beach get their act together, as they currently aren't living up to their hype.  March 23rd Marilynn and I are going to see them play the Detroit Pistons, and I hope that they have made some adjustments by then so they won't disappoint her!  Her favorite player is LeBron James and clearly she wants to see an amazing game from him, but I am looking forward to seeing how the whole team works together on both ends of the court, and specifically how Joel Anthony and Mike Miller are used.  But for now, looks like the Celtics are still the Kings of the Eastern Conference, and Miami still has work to do to ascend the throne.

Plaxico Come Back-ico!

Remember when Plaxico Burress used to play football?  You might.  Remember when he discharged a personal weapon into his leg at a nightclub, and was subsequently arrested for it?  I am sure you do.  Rumor has it from his agent Drew Rosenhaus, that Plaxico Burress is in great shape and is excited to return to the field once he is released from prison on June 6th.  Supposedly he has been working out 5x a week and has high hopes for the upcoming season.

However, will Plaxico be the same player that he was in 2008, when he caught the game-winning touchdown in the Super Bowl but was arrested that November?  Michael Vick's comeback serves as inspiration and motivation for Burress.  Although Michael Vick is a more notorized public figure then Plaxico, everyone loves a comeback kid.  Take a look at all the press Michael Vick has received since his return.  He seemed to be the hot topic of the football world for the entire year, putting Peyton Manning and Tom Brady on the back burner.  Vick even has an endorsement deal from Unequal Technologies, a company which specializes in pads and protection for sports players.  Clearly Michael Vick has rebounded, and Plaxico can do the same by performing well on the field and keeping his cool off of it.

Such a comeback is by no means guaranteed though.  Michael Vick's first season back from prison was subpar and he barely got on the field.  Plaxico will take some time to adjust to the speed of the NFL again, and develop a good connection with his quarterback.  That quarterback will probably not be Eli Manning.  Although the Giants seem to want Burress back, in all honesty they don't have much need for him.  The New York Giants have a solid set of receivers with Steve Smith, Hakeem Nicks, and Mario Manningham.  There simply isn't room for Burress as these players are all young and will continue to develop, while Plaxico has already played the best football of his career.  The worst case scenario for Burress would be similar to that of Donte Stallworth.  Stallworth was suspended for the 2009 season for committing DUI manslaughter, and served most of his 30-day sentence once he plead guilty.  Following his reinstatement for the 2010 season, he proceeded to catch only two passes as a Baltimore Raven in 2010.  Stallworth clearly has not regained his form since his arrest, but if reports are true, that will not be the case with Plaxico.

So, whichever team it may be, rumor has it the Pittsburgh Steelers would welcome Burress, bring Plaxico Back-ico to the NFL!  Who cares if about his stupidity back in 2008?  Plaxico Burress seems motivated to rejuvinate his career and redefine his life, so I hope to see him back on the football field in 2011 (assuming there is no lockout).  Besides, then I can wear his jersey again :)

Carmelo Anthony? Whatever!

The Denver Nuggets star has been the hot topic in trade rumors over the past several months.  For a while, the basketball world assumed that a trade to the New Jersey Nets was going to happen, and before that it seemed inevitable that Anthony was going to end up in New York with Amare in 2011-2012.  And now... the L.A. Lakers have come into play?  Clearly Melo wants to get out of Denver, however, trading a superstar isn't easy, especially in the middle of the season.  Denver sits at 30-22, good for 7th in the West and a date with the Lakers in the First Round if the NBA playoffs started today.  Losing Melo would probably eliminate any chance the Nuggets would make the playoffs, and propel the Lakers to another Finals appearance, right?  Not so fast.  Below I will analyze the benefits of a potential trade.

The current hype stemming from the melodrama (pun intended) of Carmelo Anthony is a trade rumor in which the Lakers would send Andrew Bynum to the Nuggets in exchange for Melo.  Clearly the Lakers have struggled more than usual this year, and most likely feel threatened by the resurgence of the San Antonio Spurs and the strength of the Miami Heat.  Phil Jackson is not known for making midseason trades, so a mere rumor shows that this year's Lakers are feeling vulnerable.  To the naked eye, dealing Andrew Bynum for Carmelo Anthony seems like a great deal for the Lakers.  Bynum has stumbled through five seasons with feeble knees, and has averaged only 56 games per season, while Carmelo has averaged 73 games per season throughout his seven seasons in the league.  However, Bynum is only 23 years old and still has potential to grow; many teams still see him as a player to build around. 

Let's take a look at each player's impact on the court.  If you have read my basketball blog's before, you already know that I use sabermetrics to evaluate player performance.  Credit is due to John Hollinger's NBA player statistics and Basketball Reference which provide analytical statistics to assess qualitative discrepancies between players.  Below or the PER and EWA and their respective league rankings for Carmelo Anthony and Andrew Bynum over the past three seasons.

** Instead of using EWA, I will use EWAA = Estimated Wins Added Adjusted, this statistic will be adjusted to simulate if each player played all 82 games of the regular season.

                     Carmelo Anthony           Andrew Bynum
PER 09                19.09                               20.03
PER 10                22.29                               20.26 
PER 11                21.10                               20.73
EWAA 09            12.05                               11.15
EWAA 10            18.42                               11.98
EWAA 11            15.31                               10.32  
PER Av         =    20.82                               20.34
EWAA Av     =    15.26                               11.15

As one can see from these statistics, Carmelo adds 4 more wins then Bynum does above a replacement player, and is slightly more efficient on the floor.  However, the fact that Carmelo Anthony only adds 4.11 EWAA more than Andrew Bynum is troubling to me.  Melo is the top option on the Denver Nuggets, while Bynum is the third or fourth option on the Los Angeles Lakers.  If the Lakers didn't have Kobe Bryant or Pau Gasol and instead had average players at those positions, Bynum's PER and EWAA would definitely increase.  How much would they increase?  We don't know as Bynum has never played more than a handful games without Kobe his entire career, which has all been for the Lakers, but I can assure you his PER Av would be higher than Carmelo's and his EWAA would be as well.

So.  Is it worth it for the Lakers to trade Bynum for Carmelo Anthony?  I'll let you decide that for yourself.  Bynum does have an injury history, yet is still only 23 and has a lot of potential to dominate the paint for the Lakers for the next decade or so.  Anthony is still only 26 and will be a superstar in this league for a while, but his supporting cast in Denver is very important and has a large impact on the team's success, as opposed to say the Cav's supporting cast when LeBron was still in Cleveland.  Also, trading away Bynum would limit the Laker's size.  Pau Gasol would have to play Center, with Lamar Odom shifting to Power Forward.  Playing Bynum and Gasol at the same time gives the Lakers a lot of size and allows for less minutes for those two and Odom.  Personally, I don't see a trade for Carmelo Anthony being beneficial for the Lakers at this time, no matter how talented a player he is.

Superbowl XLV Reflection

Superbowl XLV: Packers 31 Steelers 25

This matchup between two of the NFL's storied franchises lived up to it's billing.  Two teams with a similar road to the Superbowl: one of adversity.  The Pittsburgh Steelers were without QB Ben Roethlisberger for the first four games, as he was suspended for violating the NFL's personal conduct policy.  The Green Bay Packers endured injuries throughout the season to Aaron Rodgers, Nick Barnett, Ryan Grant, Jermichael Finley, and Al Harris, to name a few, and overcame injuries to veterans Charles Woodson and Donald Driver in the Superbowl itself.  The way that the Packers handled this adversity throughout the season was exceptional.  Backups that were used mainly for special teams had to step into key roles on offense and defense.  Aaron Rodgers had to carry even more of the offensive load on his shoulders when Ryan Grant went down with a season-ending injury in Week 1.  When Donald Driver went down with an injury, unheralded Jordy Nelson stepped in to the tune of 9 catches for 140 yards and a touchdown. 

On paper, the Steelers were a stronger team, with a better running game and superior play on both lines.  However, this Green Bay Packers team is filled with playmakers that made a difference.  The star players for the Packers played exceptionally, while the top players for the Black and Gold were neutralized.

Pittsburgh
Troy Polamalu - 3 tackles, no QB hits. He was hardly around the football.
James Harrison - 1 tackle, 1 sack, 3 QB hits, but was neutralized for most of the game
Ben Roethlisberger- 25/40 for 263 yards, 2 TD but 2 Int.  Roethlisberger played well, but not well enough

Green Bay
Nick Collins  - 4 tackles, 1 pass deflection, and an interception return for a touchdown.  Lived up to his Pro Bowl selection
Greg Jennings - 4 catches for 64, 2 TD, but made the most of his seven targets
Aaron Rodgers - 24/39 for 304 yards, 3 TD no Int.  Rodgers played a great game and picked apart the second best defense in the NFL.

In what was a very evenly matched Superbowl, the Packers made more big plays, forcing three turnovers while the Steelers couldn't force one.  Relentless pressure on Ben Roethlisberger resulted in an errant throw and an interception return for a touchdown, and an early Packers lead caused the Steelers to go away from their strong running game and revert to a passing game that clearly misses Santonio Holmes.  It seemed like the Packers just wanted to win this game more.  Their final regular season games were essentially elimination games, as they sported an 8-6 record after 14 games and needed to win out to make the playoffs.  This Green Bay team played with a swagger and confidence that was unmatched, and rode that confidence to a Superbowl XLV victory!