Baseball Picks 6/21

Back for some more baseball picks! Yesterday I went 5-1, winning every bet but the Reds over the Yankees.  However, I posted my prediction before they scratched Johnny Cueto from his start.  Regardless I probably still would have taken the Reds.  Today interleague play continues and there happens to be some strong pitching matchups today which should prove for difficult bets. 

Max Scherzer of the Detroit Tigers faces off against Chad Billingsley of the Dodgers in what should be a pitchers duel, while Roy Halladay pitches against the surprise upstart Kyle McClellan, who has six wins for the Cardinals this year.  Up and coming Jeremy Hellickson goes against Zach Grienke, who has impressed with six wins since the beginning of May for the Brewers. 



Greinke has a knack for striking out Rays



Tuesday, June 21st 2011

8:10 pm Tampa Bay Rays vs. Milwaukee Brewers

Moneyline: Rays +125, Brewers -135

Runline: 7.5

Greinke has experience pitching against the Rays as a former member of the Kansas City Royals, and traditionally has crushed the Rays.  Current Rays hit .202 against Greinke, with 7 BB and 35 K in 114 AB.  Although Greinke has struggled at times this year, he currently has a 5.23 ERA, this outing should be a routine one for him and the surging Brew Crew.  Expect a low-scoring game in favor of the men from Milwaukee, as Hellickson will pitch well enough to keep it close.

Prediction: Brewers -135, Runline < 7.5

8:15 pm Philadelphia Phillies vs St. Louis Cardinals
Moneyline: Phillies -175, Cardinals +160
Runline: 7.5

This game looks pretty predictable just by looking at the starting pitching matchup.  Halladay has a 2.56 ERA this year compared to 3.96 by McClellan.  Plus, the Cardinals biggest offensive threat, Albert Pujols, is out for 4-6 weeks with a wrist injury.  St. Louis is a career 5-22 against Halladay, with nothing more than a  single and only two walks.  However, the Phillies are only 4-29 against McClellan, albeit with two home runs.  McClellan has not been nearly as sharp lately, so as tempting as it is to take the Cardinals in this one, it's hard to bet against the Phillies.

Prediction: Phillies -175, Runline < 7.5

Chad Billingsley has traditionally dominated the Tigers, and
looks to continue that Tuesday

10:10 pm Detroit Tigers vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Moneyline: Tigers -115, Dodgers +105
Runline: 7

Max Scherzer returns to face a Dodgers squad he pitched against frequently as a member of the Arizona Diamondbacks, and the Tigers look for revenge after getting shutout by Clayton Kershaw last night.  The Dodgers have hit Scherzer adequately, with a .255 AVG and a .328 OBP.  However, four of their fourteen hits have came from Tony Gwynn Jr, who may not be in the lineup.  Similarly, the Tigers bat only .129 with a .222 OBP against Billingsley, and Miguel Cabrera is 0-12 lifetime against him.  Expect a pitchers duel with similar results to last night's match up.  However, if Billingsley does not get through 7 innings the Dodgers bullpen is notoriously weak.

Prediction: Dodgers +105, Runline < 7

Yesterday = 5-1
YTD = 5-1

Baseball Picks 6/20

Hey everyone it's been a while!  Took a break for a bit to finish up school and my job search.  Now I'm back, but with a new focus on the blog for the next few months: baseball.  Ever since the Bruins won the Stanley Cup last Wednesday night, I've been bored out my mind and moping around knowing that football season does not start for at least two more months (if not more...).  Therefore, I shift my attention to the MLB.  For the near future I plan on looking at baseball betting by looking at advanced statistical measures, specifically BVP to predict outcomes such as runs scored or winning teams.  I will look at three games each day and try to predict the winner and the runline.

Monday, June 20th 2011
7:05 pm Baltimore Orioles vs Pittsburgh Pirates
Moneyline: Baltimore +102, Pittsburgh -112
Runline: 8

Considering the lack of pitching vs batting matchups in this one, it makes it pretty difficult to predict.  Jake Arrieta is pitching against Charlie Morton in this one, and only one Pittsburgh batter has ever hit against Arrieta.  Lyle Overbay is 0-3 in his career against Arrieta with no BB and no K.  However, Baltimore batters are a career 10-24 against Morton with 2 BB and 6 K.  This amounts to a .417 average and a .481 slugging percentage.  Although Morton has changed his delivery to fool batters, the Orioles average is pretty overwhelming.

Morton ERA = 3.21       Arrieta ERA = 4.45

Prediction: Baltimore +102, Runline > 8

7:10 pm San Diego Padres vs. Boston Red Sox
Moneyline: Padres +175, Red Sox -195
Runline: 10.5

Another interleague game in which each pitcher has a lack of experience against the other team.  Wade LeBlanc sports a 4.49 ERA and a startling 1.66 WHIP this year, alarmingly poor numbers.  Andrew Miller has yet to pitch in the majors this year, so don't expect much from him.  LeBlanc has never pitched against the Red Sox, while Padres have hit Andrew Miller relatively hard, going 10-28 for a .357 average with 3 BB and 8 K.  Expect both pitchers to leave early and Boston to win a relatively high scoring game.

Prediction: Boston -195, Runline > 10.5

Cueto has been very solid for a shaky Reds
pitching staff this year

7:10 pm New York Yankees vs. Cincinnati Reds
Moneyline: Yankees +110, Reds -120
Runline: 9

The Yankees throw Ivan Nova tonight against a potent Reds offense, hence the moneyline toward the Reds.  Johnny Cueto has pitched marvelous this year, sporting a 1.68 ERA and a 1.01 WHIP.  Against the Yankees in his career, Cueto has been pretty successful, with Yankees hitters batting .214 against him with 0 BB and 3 K.  Nova has only pitched against one Reds player, reserve Fred Lewis who is 1-3 against him.  Nova has been too volatile this year for the Yankees to pull this one out, and expect Cueto to continue pitching well.

Prediction: Reds -120, Runline < 9